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הדמיית אקלים בתקופות עבר וחיזוי אקלימי של תרחישים עתידיים

הדמיית אקלים בתקופות עבר וחיזוי אקלימי של תרחישים עתידיים. פינחס אלפרט ביה"ס פורטר לסביבה והחוג לגיאופיסיקה, אוניברסיטת תל אביב בשיתוף עם: ג'ין פנגג'ון, שמעון קריצ'ק, רנה סמואלס, יצחק כרמונה, מעין הראל. 3 main topics. Importance of scale (50 vs. 25 km)

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הדמיית אקלים בתקופות עבר וחיזוי אקלימי של תרחישים עתידיים

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  1. הדמיית אקלים בתקופות עבר וחיזוי אקלימי של תרחישים עתידיים פינחס אלפרט ביה"ס פורטר לסביבה והחוג לגיאופיסיקה, אוניברסיטת תל אביב בשיתוף עם: ג'ין פנגג'ון, שמעון קריצ'ק, רנה סמואלס, יצחק כרמונה, מעין הראל

  2. 3 main topics • Importance of scale (50 vs. 25 km) • Multiple Climatic simulations (using different GHG scenarios, driving GCM’s, ensemble members) • Ensemble Outcomes/Simulations

  3. Regional Climate Modeling RegCM3 - International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste • Dynamics: MM5 Hydrostatic (Grell et al 1994) Non-hydrostatic (Bi; in progress) • Radiation: CCM3 (Kiehl 1996) • Large-Scale Clouds & Precipitaion: SUBEX (Pal et al 2000) • Cumulus convection: Grell (1993) + FC80 Closure Anthes-Kuo (1977) Emanuel (1991) Betts-Miller (1993) • Boundary Layer: Holtslag (1990) • Tracers/Aerosols/Mineral Dust: Qian et al (2001); Solmon et al. 2006 Zakey et al (2006) • Land Surface: BATS (Dickinson et al 1991), SUB-BATS (Giorgi et al 2003) CLM (Dai et al 2003, In progress) IBIS (Foley; In progress) • Ocean Fluxes Zeng et al (1998) BATS (Dickinson et al 1991)

  4. Importance of Scale 50km/14L minus 25km/18L Too intense rise in amount of conv. prec[50km/14l)0 T2m [50km/14L underestimated – too much clouds T2m[50L/14L] overestimated

  5. Multiple Model Simulations

  6. Temperature Change [K] in the summer (JJA) between future (2060-2031) to past (1961-1990) ECHAM5 B11 ECHAM5 A1B3 3.5K 2.5K ECHAM5 A1B1 HADLEY A1B 11K 4.8K 6K 8K

  7. Ensembles • Maps • Time-series; 1960-2060 • Probabilities

  8. Summer Temperature

  9. Winter Precipitation

  10. Precipitation running means for ±5 years in the winter (DJB) Center Israel RegCM grid point (32N,35E). Every point is an averge of 11years for instance: the value for 2024 is an average for 2019-2029.

  11. ECHAM5 RegCM 25km : Winter precipitation [mm/season] differences future (2001-2030)- past (1961-1990)

  12. Precipitation Change [mm/season] in the winter (DJF) between future (2060-2031) to past (1961-1990) ECHAM5 B11 ECHAM5 A1B3 HADLEY A1B ECHAEM5 A1B1

  13. Change Future from Past:Probability Distribution

  14. Data Sets • 4 climate models (18-25 km horizontal resolution) • Japanese Met Office 20km • ECHAM-RegCM • ECHAM-MM5 Run 1 • HADLEY-MM5 Run 1 • Future Scenario Used: SRES A1B scenario • Observed Data is taken from 13 Stations around the country.

  15. Observed Rainfall

  16. Change in JSD calculated PDF over time for Average Annual Amounts shows observed data (red) and calculated past near future (2015-2035 - dashed) and past calculated (1965-1990 - solid). far future (2035-2060 - dashed) and past calculated (1965-1990 - solid). p mm/yr

  17. Change in JSD calculated PDF over time for Number of Wet Spells shows observed data (red) and calculated past near future (2015-2035 - dashed) and past calculated (1965-1990 - solid). far future (2035-2060 - dashed) and past calculated (1965-1990 - solid). p Number of Spells

  18. Conclusions • Tendency to extreme in daily and seasonal rainfall- Desertification? • Tendency to extreme temperatures • Japanese run confirms how crucial are high-resolution climate runs • First High Resolution Model Ensemble over the E. Mediterranean confirms the tendency to extreme along with less total rainfall

  19. תודה רבה!

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