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Conflict and Environment: the Role of Agriculture

Conflict and Environment: the Role of Agriculture. Jim Lee, jlee@american.edu American University AIARD, June 6, 2005, Washington, DC. The Problem of Conflict and Environment. Conflict and environment issues are age-old problems with new twists .

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Conflict and Environment: the Role of Agriculture

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  1. Conflict and Environment: the Role of Agriculture Jim Lee, jlee@american.edu American University AIARD, June 6, 2005, Washington, DC

  2. The Problem of Conflict and Environment • Conflict and environment issues are age-old problems with new twists. • Perspectives on value of environment resources change with time. Examples: petroleum and bird guano. • There is little systematic information sources for researching issues of environment and conflict. • Agriculture is one of those key issues of concern to understanding environment and conflict.

  3. ICE: Inventory of Conflict andEnvironment • 186 case reports reported online • Coded on the basis of 16 categories • Coding categories are almost all delimited choices (a list) • Coding categories are mostly nominal and ordinal ICE Web Site: http://www.american.edu/ted/ice/ice.htm

  4. ICE Clusters and Coding • a. Basic Attributes • 1. Abstract • 2. Description • 3. Duration • 4. Location5. Actors • b. Environment Attributes • 6. Type of Environmental Problem • 7. Type of Habitat • 8. Act and Harm Sites • c. Conflict Attributes9. Type of Conflict • 10. Level of Conflict11. Fatality Level of Dispute (military and civilian fatalities) • d. Conflict Environment Overlap12. Environment-Conflict Link and Dynamics13. Level of Strategic Interest14. Outcome of Dispute • e. Related Information and Sources15. Related Cases16. Relevant Literature and Websites

  5. The End of the Cold War: An Outbreak of Conflict and Environment Cases

  6. What Types of Cases? Durations are a Medium-Term (8-16 years)

  7. Habitats: Tropical Forests and Desert Water

  8. Most Conflicts are Internal or Between States

  9. Global Hot Spots: The Tension Belt

  10. Fatalities: Low and Major Deaths

  11. Conflict Type and Continent: Where Matters

  12. Conflict Type and Habitat: What Matters

  13. Agriculture Link 1: Declining Ag. Yield and over-population (civil) Maya: decline and collapse related to over population and poor soil fertility by 900 AD Rwanda: soil fertility decline, ethnic conflict, over-population and 1994 genocide Brazmigr: Brazil’s migration of urban settlers into the Amazonand conflict with indigenous peoples. Poor farming soils will lead to greater exploitation.

  14. Ag. Link 2: Population growth and desire for agricultural land (war) • Chaco: Conflict and control of mate and land in 1930s between Paraguay and Bolivia • Soccer: Available land and high population growth leads to El Salvador and Honduras border war • Ituri: Ethnic conflict and land access in Congo as part of the ongoing pan-African conflict

  15. Agriculture Link 3: Fresh water are vital for agriculture [war] • Nile, Egypt and upstream user disputes with Sudan and Ethiopia • Tigris, Iraq and upstream user disputes with Turkey and Syria • Litani, Lebanon, Syria and Israel disputes • Jordan, Israel and Palestinian Dispute over water access and use

  16. Agriculture Link 4: Use of agriculture to fund conflict (civil) • Camwood: Khmer Rouge use of timber harvests to fund conflict • Coca: Sales of coca to support narco-conflict in Colombia, Peru etc • Taliban-Poppy: Continued sales of Afghani poppy by groups opposing regime

  17. Ag. Link 5, Weather, Climate and Geologic Events (civil) • Niger: Fulani and Zarma tribes conflict during extended drought • Kikiyu, Kenya drought, migration and tribal conflict between ethnic groups (ranchers and farmers) • Tsunami-thailand, Livelihood rebuilding and religious conflict in Thailand

  18. Agriculture Link 6: Political Events related to agriculture (civil) • Chiapas, conflict and the signing of NAFTA and fears over corn imports • Grainwar, India GMO imports and farmer rebellion

  19. General Observations on the Nature of Conflict and Agriculture • The conflicts are mostly long-lived, livelihood related with uncertain outcomes and occurring in the Tension Zone • Some events require rapid responses as natural events such as Tsunami and recovery of livelihoods (short–term) (Aceh, Sri Lanka and Thailand) • The conflicts may be short-term disputes such as over water (MidEast) • Conflicts can also contravene other goals such as forest conservation (South America) • The relation between conflict and environment is complicated and vital to stability and progress. Creating macro-systems for tracking cases and how they relate is part of that effort. These are 20 year early warning systems.

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