STATE OF THE ART IN TRANSPORT AND ENERGY

1. Carlos Marques TIS.PT, Portugal Carlos.marques@tis.pt STATE OF THE ART IN TRANSPORT AND ENERGY

2. Background context Road transport technologies Other transport modes Prospects on Transportation Fuels Energy Supply to the Transport System Policies on transport and energy Conclusions STRUCTURE OF PRESENTATION Developing long term scenarios on the future of the European Transport System requires a thorough understanding of the context to which transportation is subject.

3. ENVIRONMENTAL PERFORMANCE OF THE TRANSPORT SECTOR BACKGROUND EU-25 TOTAL EMISSIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES Source: EUROSTAT, Energy, Transport, and Environment Indicators, ed.2005[1], p.137 • “transportation is clearly a fundamental cause of climate change” (EC, 2004) [1]http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int/pls/portal/url/page/PGP_MISCELLANEOUS/PGE_DOC_DETAIL?p_product_code=KS-DK-05-001

4. BACKGROUND UNDERSTANDING THE TRANSPORTATION DRIVING FORCES Projected Evolution of Mobility (pass.km) and GDP (EU-15), 1980 … 2010 Source: Eurostat, 2001; EEA, 2000

5. BACKGROUND UNDERSTANDING THE TRANSPORTATION DRIVING FORCES Car ownership rate vs. GDP per capita Source: UNEP Report 2002 [1] [1] http://www.acea.be/ACEA/20020518PublicationUNEPReport.pdf

6. BACKGROUND EVOLVING CAR MANUFATURING CONTEXT • Disruptive technologies come at high cost • The challenge for vehicle manufacturers is about making winning bets on technology, at high risk. • The emerging strategies that each car manufacturer adopts along the evolving pathway will therefore play a crucial role • There is a strong interdependency between Car Manufacturers Strategies and Energy Sources and Costs Source: Eurostat, 2001; EEA, 2000

7. STATE OF THE ART IN TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGIES • ROAD TRANSPORT • Internal Combustion Engines • Natural gas vehicles • Hybrids • Electric vehicles • Fuel Cells and hydrogen • RAILWAYS • MARITIME • AIR TRANSPORT

8. PROSPECTS ON TRANSPORTATION FUELS Transport fuel pathways Source: World Business Council for Sustainable Development, 2004 - Sustainable Mobility Project

9. PROSPECTS ON TRANSPORTATION FUELS Matrix of possible fuel/propulsion system combinations Source: Frost & Sullivan in WBCSD[1], 2004 [1]World Business Council on Sustainable Development, 2004

10. ENERGY SUPPLY TO THE TRANSPORT SYSTEM Primary Energy Sources ENERGY PRODUCTION IN THE EU-30 Source: EC Green paper of Security of Energy Supply, 2000 The situation as of 2000 was already acknowledged to be far from promising. It was clearly stated that ‘…even if the EU has managed to reduce its energy intensity (the quantity of energy needed to produce a unit of wealth), all the warning lights are flashing. Energy consumption is rising by 1 to 2% a year. Dependence on EU countries is starting to rise above 50% again. Our scarce domestic resources are beginning to run out; in the case of coal, we talk about ‘economic depletion’, as it is far too expensive to mine…’

11. ENERGY SUPPLY TO THE TRANSPORT SYSTEM Primary Energy Sources EU CRUDE OIL SUPPLY DISCOVERY OF REGULAR OIL CURRENT AND FUTURE (based on Exxon Mobil Data, 2002) Source: CAMPBELL C.J., 2005

12. ENERGY SUPPLY TO THE TRANSPORT SYSTEM Well-to-Wheel Fuel Energy Balances • To shift from a oil based transport system will require adapting infrastructure of supply depending on choice of technology. • Besides the cost of any changes in the supply infrastructure, the most important balance will be the well to wheel balancing, ensuring that effective improvements in energy dependence from fossil fuels and their external consequences are taken into account PROBLEMS WITH PRODUCTION OF ENERGY CARRIERS, SUCH AS HYDROGEN

13. ENERGY SUPPLY TO THE TRANSPORT SYSTEM Biofuels Improved DIESEL Cost-effective and commercial potential Somewhat Expensive Price Can be mixed in the current diesel or gasoline N/A Refuel None in terms of infrastructure Investments May share current distribution channels Energy/ Environment Lower Energy use & emissions Advantageous CO2 balance Security of supply Slightly Less imports Potentially 100% indigenous

14. ENERGY SUPPLY TO THE TRANSPORT SYSTEM NGV’s Hydrogen Cost-effective and with commercial potential Price Expensive Need investments in production and distribution Refuel Limited places to refuel New cars needed. Investment needed in storage and distribution. Can be used in many existing cars with modifications. Investment is needed Investments Energy/ Environment Potentially 20-25% less consumption and CO2 emissions than gasoline Depending on how electricity is produced. No emissions from the car. Security of supply Is also imported and similar to oil “supply constraints”. Depending on type of energy used to produce electricity.

15. ENERGY SUPPLY TO THE TRANSPORT SYSTEM Electric cars Hybrid cars Still expensive. Trend is to decrease price/Scale Prod. Price Batteries are costly Everywhere (Diesel, NGV…) Refuel Slow but easy recharging Investments Few, apart from vehicles Few in Energy Supply More efficient. Emissions depending on how electricity is produced. Zero Local emissions Energy/ Environment Up to 30% fuels savings and corresponding emissions, in particular Urban Security of supply Some decrease in Fuel Dependence. Depending on type of energy used to produce electricity

16. EU POLICIES • EUROPEAN POLICIES ON TRANSPORTS AND ENERGY • Common Transport Policy • Vehicle Taxation • Fuel Taxation • EC Policy on Biofuels • Alternative Fuels Support Policy • EC Procurement of Cleaner Transport Technologies • ENERGY SECURITY POLICY • EU Priorities on Oil Security (EC Green Paper) • Constraints to Security of Energy Supply • Disruption Risk Mitigation Strategies

17. EU POLICIES • The EC GREEN PAPER expressed the following 3 major constraints to theSECURITY OF ENERGY SUPPLY: • GEOPOLITICAL constraintsweigh heavily on the energy sector, hence with a strong impact in transportation. Europe imports 50% of its needs. Around 2030 this figure will have risen to 70%., concerning almost exclusively fossil fuels if nothing is done. • ENVIRONMENTAL constraintsare making themselves felt in daily life. It is necessary to lay the groundwork to produce energy or to travel in a way which is more sustainable. Fossil fuels give rise to many environmental problems connected with their combustion and transport applications • GEOLOGICAL constraintsin 50 years, there will be almost no more oil or gas. Alternatively, it will be very costly to extract these products, in a way which bears no relation to current prices. In other words, these natural resources exist in finite quantities and we are just squandering them.

18. CONCLUSIONS • Through 2010 • Initiatives will be taken to slow the growth rate of oil use / CO2 as much as possible. To do that, NGVs (ICE), Biofuels and HYBRID vehicles seem promising alternatives right from today, with the particularity that HYBRIDs may clear the way to fully electric vehicles relying either on improved energy storage capacity or on Fuel Cells running on Hydrogen • After 2010 • Expectations seem to be towards a more sustainable transport system, featuring near-zero CO2 emissions in urban contexts and decreased relative dependence on oil (but perhaps not in absolute values), based on a growing share of an improved generation of EVs and HYBRID based on NG, Biofuels and Diesel, as well as ICE improvements. Fuel cells hold a potential, yet to be released, depending on large scale clean production and distribution of Hydrogen.

19. CONCLUSIONS • HENCE, the challenge is not only to consider what we know already today, but also what might result from influencing key drivers such as growing evidence of climate change consequences, including in the economy itself, rising oil prices in result of a possible shift from a mild demand driven context to a more severe oil supply driven context. • STEPS acknowledged the existence of worrying signals regarding conventional energy availability and severe environmental consequences, as underscored by key international organizations. • The RECOMMENDATION of this preliminary part of the study was that the usually seen as “BAU” trends and perspectives should rather be seen as optimistic viewpoints in the development of scenarios, as worrying signals are consistently pointing at the emergence of disruptive developments in the ENERGY / TRANSPORTATION conventional relationship.