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Debt Service Analysis: Can I Repay?

Debt Service Analysis: Can I Repay?. Objectives. Measure term debt repayment capacity, margin, and coverage ratio on your farm Evaluate repayment margin with respect to: 1) Risk 2) Borrowing power 3) How to structure debt financing

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Debt Service Analysis: Can I Repay?

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  1. Debt Service Analysis: Can I Repay?

  2. Objectives • Measure term debt repayment capacity, margin, and coverage ratio on your farm • Evaluate repayment margin with respect to: 1) Risk 2) Borrowing power 3) How to structure debt financing • Think about operational strategies for managing debt repayment capacity

  3. How Much Debt Can I Repay? • Depends on • Repayment capacity • Interest rate • Repayment period for borrowed money

  4. How to Measure? • Term Debt Coverage Ratio • Term Debt Repayment Margin

  5. Term Debt Repayment Capacity Measures the dollar amount of net income available for servicing term debt Uses: • Step 1 in computing both the term debt coverage ratio and term debt repayment margin • Estimate maximum safe farm debt load

  6. Worksheet 3. MBC Farms

  7. Worksheet 3. (Continued) MBC Farms

  8. Term Debt Repayment Margin Measures how much term debt repayment capacity remains after already existing term debt payments have been made Used to: • Evaluate the ability to acquire capital assets or service additional term debt • Decide how to structure additional financing • Evaluate the margin of safety associated with servicing term debt

  9. Worksheet 3. continuedMBC Farms

  10. How Far Can I Stretch Margin Dollars For New Capital Purchases?

  11. Term Debt Repayment - Margin of Safety How much can gross revenues fall before repayment capacity is lost? Term Debt Repayment Margin serves as a buffer against risk. How big should this buffer be?

  12. Example of Margin of Safety Management – MBC Farms

  13. What is a safe margin? Critical Cash Flow Analysis Critical cash flow is the minimum $ amount of gross income required to meet the farm’s needs to pay all of the following: • Cash operating expenses & interest on operating loan • Scheduled principal & interest payments on term debt • Withdrawals for family living expenses & income tax • Cash needed for planned reinvestments in the farm

  14. Managing The Term Debt Repayment Margin • Repayment margin is more than adequate How to use the excess? How to structure debt that will be serviced with the excess? How today’s decisions will affect this and future years? • Repayment margin is not adequate How to increase the repayment margin or reduce the risk of a shortfall?

  15. Operational Strategies For Managing Repayment Capacity • Repayment management has traditionally focused on minimizing debt relative to total assets, managing the terms and conditions of loans, and other financial strategies • The amount of debt that can be managed safely can be increased by focusing attention on operational strategies for managing repayment capacity • Operational strategies focus on making decisions and establishing policies that increase the likelihood that the necessary income will be available to make payments as they come due

  16. How Would You Respond? First Scenario – The farm’s asset turnover ratio and operating profit margin are exceptionally high; but, the farm’s term debt repayment capacity and margin are $98,000 and $(15,000) respectively. The farm’s term debt coverage ratio is .867:1. The farm’s solvency ratio (debt to assets) is 25%. A. improve financial performance B. expand operation C. alter debt repayment terms How might you restore debt repayment capacity on this farm?

  17. How Would You Respond? Second Scenario – The farm’s expected term debt repayment margin is too small given the history of income variability on the farm. Tripling the forecast term debt repayment margin will still leave the farm highly exposed to the risk of a decline in net income sufficient to wipe out the expected repayment margin. A. improve performance B. expand operation C. alter financial structure What operational strategies might a farm in this situation pursue to reduce the risk?

  18. How Would You Finance This Investment? Third Scenario – The farm’s forecast term debt repayment margin for this year is $190,000 and the farm’s margin of safety requirement is $135,000. On October 1 of this year the farm manager has $200,000 in cash on hand and is considering paying cash to make improvements to the farm’s grain handling and storage systems. 1) How much of the $200,000 is actually uncommitted and available to pay on the grain handling improvements? 2) What recommendations would you make about how to pay for the improvements to the grain handling system?

  19. Summary • Debt is a valuable tool for fueling growth if managed wisely • Repayment capacity is dependent on the ability to generate net income • Repayment capacity is heavily influenced by repayment terms, and the need for net income to support family living and capital investment • Use operational strategies to enhance the management of repayment capacity. • How much repayment margin is needed and what to do with excess margin are important questions for the farm general manager.

  20. Strategic Business Planning for Commercial Producers

  21. Loan Computations (see Table 4 in EC-712 for the amortization factors)

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