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Non-parametric data-based approach for the quantification and communication of uncertainties in river flood forecasts Niels Van Steenbergen Patrick Willems KULeuven – Hydraulics Division EGU General Assembly, Vienna, April 2012 Session NH1.6/HS4.7. Outline. Introduction Methodology

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Outline

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  1. Non-parametric data-based approach for the quantification and communication of uncertainties in river flood forecastsNiels Van SteenbergenPatrick WillemsKULeuven – HydraulicsDivisionEGU General Assembly, Vienna, April 2012Session NH1.6/HS4.7

  2. Outline • Introduction • Methodology • Communication • Conclusion

  3. Introduction Floodforecastingmodels of FlandersHydraulics Research Navigablewaterways in Flanders, Belgium 48h time horizon Deterministicresults (water levels & discharges) Hydrological(NAM), hydrodynamic (Mike11) & rainfallforecasts => subject touncertainties => Methodologytoquantifyandvisualiseuncertainty

  4. Methodology Ghent Channels Bruges Polders Scheldt Nete Lys Upper Scheldt Statistical analysis of model error Non-parametric approach Data-based (historicalsimulationresults) Case study:

  5. Methodology Statistical analysis of model error Non-parametric approach (no predef. prob. distr.) Data-based (historicalsimulationresults)

  6. Methodology Observation Water Level Time

  7. Methodology Observation Simulation Water Level TOF3 TOF4 TOF2 TOF1 Time

  8. Methodology Observation Residuals Simulation Water Level TOF3 TOF4 TOF2 TOF1 Time

  9. Methodology Observation Residuals Simulation 4 3 2 1 Value Class • 2 3 4 5 • Time Horizon Class Time

  10. Methodology Observation Residuals Simulation 4 3 2 1 Value Class • 2 3 4 5 • Time Horizon Class Time

  11. Methodology 97.5 Percentile [%] 50 2.5 0 Residuals [m] Bias correction 95% confidence interval

  12. Methodology 97.5 Percentile [%] 3D error matrix 50 Value Class Percentile 2.5 Time Horizon Class 0 Residuals [m] Bias correction 95% confidence interval

  13. Methodology 3D error matrix

  14. Methodology 3D error matrix Value Class Percentile Water Level Time Horizon Class Time

  15. Methodology ALARM Level ALERT Level Exceedance Probability Water Level Time Time

  16. Communication • Linguistic • Numerical • Graphical

  17. Communication • Linguistic

  18. Communication • Numerical

  19. Communication • Graphical

  20. Communication • Probabilistic flood maps 14/11/2010 01:00 13/11/2010 05:00 13/11/2010 10:00

  21. Conclusion • Simple, but efficientmethod • Total uncertainty (notonly input) • More information comparedwithdeterministicresults • Different communicationstrategies

  22. Questions?? • Contact: niels.vansteenbergen@bwk.kuleuven.be • For more information: Van Steenbergen N., Ronsyn J., Willems P. (2012). A non-parametric data-based approach forprobabilisticfloodforecasting in support of uncertaintycommunication. EnvironmentalModelling & Software 33, 92-105.

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