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9 th Annual CMAS Conference , Octo ber 11-13 , 20 10 Chapel Hill, NC

Response of fine particles to the reduction of precursor emissions in Yangtze River Delta (YRD), China. Juan Li 1 , Joshua S. Fu 1 , Yang Gao 1 , Yun-Fat Lam 1 Guoshun Zhuang 2 , Kan Huang 1,2 , Ying Zhou 3 1. The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, U.S.A. 2. Fudan University, China

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9 th Annual CMAS Conference , Octo ber 11-13 , 20 10 Chapel Hill, NC

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  1. Response of fine particles to the reduction of precursor emissions in Yangtze River Delta (YRD), China Juan Li1, Joshua S. Fu1, Yang Gao1, Yun-Fat Lam1 Guoshun Zhuang2, Kan Huang1,2, Ying Zhou3 1. The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, U.S.A. 2. Fudan University, China 3. Emory University, U.S.A. 9th Annual CMAS Conference,October 11-13, 2010 Chapel Hill, NC

  2. Outline Introduction Objective Model description and performance Sensitivity study VOC emission reduction NOx emission reduction Implication on emission control in YRD

  3. Introduction Yangtze River Delta Area: 99600 km2 Population: over 80 million people in 2007 50 million are urban. Shanghai City Population: 18,884,600 Population Density: 2,700 inhabitants/km²

  4. Current issue (O3 & PM) Haze Shanghai YRD is one of the four regions in China, which experiences severe visibility impairment. (Record: PM10 = 512 mg/m3) True color-satellite image on January 18, 2007 However, very limited regional modeling have been performed in YRD.

  5. Objective To study the response of O3 and PM2.5 over YRD to the changes of NOx and VOC emissions using CMAQ. Reveal the atmospheric nitrate chemistry over YRD to provide effective suggestions about emission control.

  6. Modeling Configuration 27 km 9 km 3 km CMAQ V4.6 with CB05AE4 • Meteorological Input: • MM5 V3.7 • Domain: • 27km, 9km & 3km • Vertical Grid Spacing: 24 layers • Emission: • INTEX-B with local emission adjustments • Simulation Period: 2006 • IC/BC: GEOS-Chem Discussion will be mainly on 3 km domain

  7. Emissions Development • Regional Emission Inventory • INTEX-B & TRACE-P • GIS program • Spatial Allocation • Spatial Allocation Factor • FORTRAN Program • Emission Vertical distribution • Temporal Allocation Domain • Regional Re-adjustment of Emissions Area

  8. Unit: 1000 tons/year INTEX-B VOC 43.56 Ref VOC 57.42 INTEX-B NOX 50.06 Ref NOX 46.39 Emissions Comparison INTEX-B: Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment-Phase B Ref. Local report

  9. Emissions Comparison (Cont.)

  10. Examples of CMAQ Emissions Input Methanol PNO3 mole/s g/s

  11. MM5 Wind and Temperature Jul. 2006, Shanghai Dec. 2006, Shanghai

  12. Wind rose plot in Shanghai JANUARY JULY

  13. CMAQ scenarios

  14. Observational Site Red color: A represent O3 observational site; Blue color: B represent PM2.5 NH4+, NO3- observational site Observational site locate in Fudan University, a representative of residence area in downtown of Shanghai

  15. Ozone Time Series in Site A Ozone performance statistics (based on 4 months of data)

  16. PM2.5 Daily Average Distribution PM2.5performance statistics (based on 4 months of data)

  17. Model Performance - Temporal Distribution

  18. Model Performance - Statistics • NMB—the normalized mean bias; NME—the normalized mean error;

  19. Sensitivity Study Response of PM2.5 to 20% reduction of NOx and VOC, respectively

  20. Response of NH4+, NO3- to the reduction in 20% NOx and 20% VOC emission Reduction in 20%VOC Reduction in 20%NOx

  21. Correlation between PAN and NH4+, NO3- PAN were well correlated with NH4+and NO3-; the slopes in four seasons were in the order of winter>fall>spring>summer, which was coincident with the seasonal variation of temperature, indicating that lower temperature is in favor of the formation of PAN, Peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) may play a key role in the formation of NO3- and NH4+ in response to the reduction of NOx emission.

  22. HNO3 + NH3 NH4NO3 CH3C(O)OO·+ NO2 CH3C(O)OONO2 (PAN) PAN (Peroxyacetyl nitrate)

  23. Response of O3 to reduction in NOx and VOC emission by 20% Reduction in 20%NOx Reduction in 20%VOC

  24. Response at Other Sites Reduction in 20%VOC Reduction in 20%NOx

  25. PAN may play a key role in the formation of NO3- and NH4+in response to the reduction of NOx emission. Emission reduction of VOC in YRD is more effective than NOx in terms of reducing O3 and PM2.5. Summary

  26. Acknowledgement Energy Foundation Harvard School of Public Health (Grant No. G-0910-10653). National Key Project of Basic Research of China (Grant No. 2006CB403704), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 20877020, 40575062, and 40599420). The National Institute for Computational Sciences at the University of Tennessee provides CPU time on the Kraken supercomputer to conduct the simulations.

  27. Question

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