1 / 54

Fish Price Index Research Agenda

Fish Price Index Research Agenda. FAO Price Index Workshop, Procida, Italy 4.10.11 Frank Asche, Kristin Lien and Sigbjorn Tveteras UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO),

kitra
Download Presentation

Fish Price Index Research Agenda

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Fish Price Index Research Agenda FAO Price Index Workshop, Procida, Italy 4.10.11 Frank Asche, Kristin Lien and Sigbjorn Tveteras UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), University of Stavanger (UiS), Pontifica Universidad Católca del Perú and the Norwegian Seafood Export Council (NSEC)

  2. Thefactthatthefishpriceindex can be disaggregatedalongseveraldimensionsmakesitispossibletopursuemanyrelevantresearchissues • In the following we present some of the opportunities that exist for research using the FPI

  3. Research Issues based on FPI • Are global seafoodmarketsintegrated? • EconomicGrowth and SeafoodPrices • Feed Cost and Price of Aquaculture Fish • Fuel Cost and Price of Capture Fish

  4. 1. Integrated global seafoodmarkets – mythorreality?

  5. The global whitefishmarketappearsto be integrated, althoughimperfectly For example, Alaska Pollock prices seem to diverge from other white fish species, at least during periods

  6. Whitefish prices

  7. Price:whitefish, wholefrozen

  8. Price:whitefish, wholefrozen

  9. Price:whitefish, filletfrozen

  10. Price:whitefish, filletfrozen Fall in Alaska Pollock prices?

  11. Whitefish, fillet frozen • Origin North America • Markets EU, Japan and USA

  12. Whitefish, fillet frozen • Origin North America • Markets EU, Japan and USA

  13. Price:whitefish, filletfrozen

  14. Price:whitefish, surimi

  15. Pelagicfishprices are characterizedbyhighvolatility. Some of thesemarketsappearstofollowcommontrends, but can periodicallyexperiencestrongdeviations

  16. Pelagic fish (excl. Tuna) prices

  17. Pelagicfish (excl. Tuna) prices, smoothed

  18. Small pelagic prices, origin Europe and North America

  19. Divergence • Small pelagic prices, origin Europe and North America • There signs of divergence

  20. Divergence Convergence • Small pelagic prices, origin Europe and North America • There signs of divergence • Then convergence

  21. Integration Divergence Convergence • Small pelagic prices, origin Europe and North America • There signs of divergence • Then convergence • And finally, integration

  22. Prices at a more disaggragatelevel show thatthedivergenceoriginatedfromNorth American pelagicexportstoJapan(light blue line) • Europeanpelagicexportsalsocommand a higherprice in theJapanesemarket(dark red line)

  23. The global tunamarketexhibitpronouncedcommontrends in pricemovements, butstillnotperfectlyintegrated

  24. Tuna prices

  25. Tuna prices, smoothed

  26. Tuna prices, smoothed Difference in steepness of trend can most likely be related to composition of tuna species/product format

  27. Prices of otherfish, whichrepresents a hodgepodge of differentkinds of species, are surprisinglyconvergent at the regional aggregatelevel Could it be the effect of farmed fish such as catfish, tilapia and pangasius that influence these comovements?

  28. Other fish prices

  29. Other fish prices

  30. Salmonpriceshave converged withthegrowth of aquaculture and has become a stronglyintegrated global market

  31. Salmon prices

  32. Shrimpissegmented in twotypes of markets: 1) aquaculture and 2) capture, wherethelattergroupis more heterogenous However, wild shrimp prices have not been able to rise like many other fish species, which is most likely due to the growth of shrimp aquaculture

  33. Shrimp prices Farmed shrimp prices relatively stable and integrated

  34. Shrimp prices Wild shrimp prices more volatile due to seasonality and more divergent because of heterogenous species types

  35. Shrimp prices However, only weak if any increasing trend in wild-shrimp prices

  36. Shrimp prices, smoothed

  37. Shrimp prices, smoothed Only weakly increasing trends suggest scarcity is not an issue

  38. Finallywe compare pricedevelopmentacrossspecies

  39. Summary • Mostmarketsfor particular fishspeciesgroupsappearto be integratedacrossregionsalthoughthelevel of integrationappearsto be relatedto • Heterogeneity of specieswithinspeciesgroup • Productiontechnology • Integrationacrossspeciesgroupisless, butthereisstillsigns of similar long-termtrendswhenthelongrunisdefinedto be 5-10 yearsintervalls

  40. 2. Economicgrowth and seafoodprices

  41. EU, Japan and USA have similar pricedevelopmentforseafood…

  42. …and China too, but a bit steeper

  43. …and Koreatoo, butevensteeper

  44. …and finally Brazil with steepest price development

  45. Whyispricingrisingfaster in emergingeconomies? • Therise of themiddleclass in Asia seemstohavetwoeffects • Increase in consumption of seafood • Changingthecomposition of seafoodconsumptiontowards more high-valueproducts • Thisresults in a higherinflationforseafoodproducts in emergingmarkets

  46. 3. FeedCost and Price of AquacultureFish • Prices of aquaculture feed inputs have spiked during the last years and should affect prices of farmed fish

  47. Aquaculture feed prices

  48. Prices of feed inputs and aquacultureproducts

  49. Conclusion • The increase in prices of a broad range of important inputs for aquaculture feed have led to rising prices for aquaculture products • This reflects the importance of feed cost of total operational costs, and that that there are limited oppurtinities to substitute away from rising input prices

More Related