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FCA 14 TSA Requirement Assumptions for Southeast New England Capacity Zone

Review of assumptions for calculating the Transmission Security Analysis (TSA) Requirement for the import-constrained Capacity Zone in FCA 14. Includes load forecast data, resource capacity, retirement bids, and interface transfer limits.

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FCA 14 TSA Requirement Assumptions for Southeast New England Capacity Zone

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  1. June 20, 2019| HOLYOKE, MA Peter Wong RESOURCE ADEQUACY Studies and assessments 2023-2024 Forward Capacity Auction (FCA 14) Transmission Security Analysis (TSA) Assumptions

  2. Purpose Review the assumptions for calculating the TSA Requirement for the Southeast New England (SENE)* import-constrained Capacity Zone for the fourteenth Forward Capacity Auction (FCA 14) *For a copy of the presentation regarding FCA 14 Capacity Zones, please use the following link: https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2019/05/a7_fca14_zone_formation_05302019.pdf

  3. FCA 14 TSA Requirement Assumptions– General • The SENE Capacity Zone was identified as the only import-constrained Capacity Zone for FCA 14 • The Capacity Zone is comprised of: NEMA/Boston, SEMA and RI • The calculation of the TSA Requirement relies on the FCA 14 Installed Capacity Requirement (ICR) calculation assumptions* of load forecast, resource capacity and availability values in addition to the transmission topology that was certified for the 2023-2024 Capacity Commitment Period (CCP) • Based on assumptions for calculating the ICR for the 2023-2024 CCP. The presentation is available at: https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2019/05/a61_icr_values_assmptns_05302019.pdf

  4. FCA 14 TSA Requirement Assumptions – Load and Resources Including Mystic 8 & 9 *Retirement de-list bids at or above the FCA Starting Price are deducted from the qualified Existing Capacity Resource data. Generating capacity may not equal to sum of non-intermittent and intermittent resources due to rounding. NOTE: All values have been rounded off to the nearest whole number • Load forecast data • 2019 CELT net forecast (adjusted for behind-the-meter photovoltaic forecast) • SENE sub-area 90/10 peak load: 13,571 MW • Resource data for SENE • 2023-2024 Qualified Existing Capacity Resource data • Generating capacity: 9,234* MW • Includes 8,979MW of non-intermittent generating resources and 254 MW of intermittent generating resources • Passive Demand Resources: 1,502 MW • Active Demand Resources: 199 MW

  5. FCA 13 TSA Requirement Assumptions– Load and Resources, cont.Including Mystic 8 and 9 • Resource unavailability assumptions • Generating resources - weighted average EFORd: 5.68% • Passive Demand Resources: 0% • Active Demand Capacity Resources - de-rating based on performance factors • NEMA/Boston sub-area: 11% • SEMA sub-area: 3% • RI sub-area: 15%

  6. FCA 14 TSA Requirement Assumptions– Interface Transfer Limits* * Based on transmission transfer capability limits presented at the March 20, 2019 Reliability Committee meeting. The presentation is available at: https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2019/03/a7_fca_14_transmission_transfer_capabilities_and_capacity_zone_development.pd

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