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Recent developments in seasonal forecasting at French NMS Michel Déqué Météo-France, Toulouse

Recent developments in seasonal forecasting at French NMS Michel Déqué Météo-France, Toulouse. EUROSIP. 7-month ensembles of 41 members Together with ECMWF and MetO Issued operationally each month Météo-France: → system3 in May 2008 New ocean analysis 91 levels on the vertical. 2.

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Recent developments in seasonal forecasting at French NMS Michel Déqué Météo-France, Toulouse

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  1. Recent developments in seasonal forecasting at French NMS Michel DéquéMétéo-France, Toulouse

  2. EUROSIP 7-month ensembles of 41 members Together with ECMWF and MetO Issued operationally each month Météo-France: → system3 in May 2008 New ocean analysis 91 levels on the vertical 2

  3. Winter temperature in Paris DJF daily values of 2m temperature at 1 grid point Pdf distribution Validated against observed series at Paris-Orly for 1988-2007 Model data pre-conditioning: model climatological pdf must fit observation pdf for each model Example: last two winters of the hindcast period 3

  4. Winter 2005-2006 Climatology Observation Multi-model

  5. Winter 2006-2007 Climatology Observation Multi-model

  6. Scores Ranked probability scores 200 equiprobable classes Leave one out mode 6 Climatology: 0.0097 ECMWF : 0.0105 MetO: 0.0097 Météo-France: 0.0090 Multi: 0.0088

  7. Generalization to Europe 34 European capitals FP6-ENSEMBLES observation gridded dataset (25 km)‏ Météo-France hindcasts only

  8. RPS skill score (x100)‏

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