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(c) R. Thompson

The European Storm Forecast Experiment. Presented by Johannes Dahl. What is ESTOFEX? What are the goals of ESTOFEX? How are the forecasts created? Difficulties and future work. (c) R. Thompson. ECSS2004 León, Spain. What is ESTOFEX?. The European Storm Forecast Experiment is an

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(c) R. Thompson

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  1. The European Storm Forecast Experiment Presented by Johannes Dahl • What is ESTOFEX? • What are the goals of ESTOFEX? • How are the forecasts created? • Difficulties and future work (c) R. Thompson ECSS2004 León, Spain

  2. What is ESTOFEX? The European Storm Forecast Experiment is an initiative of young European meteorologists and meteorology students • ESTOFEX attempts to forecast • the likelihood of severe convective storms • the occurrence of lightning across Europe The forecast scheme has originally been adopted from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) ECSS2004 León, Spain

  3. Goals • demonstrate that concepts about severe thunderstorms currently mainly used in the US also work in Europe • increase awareness that severe convection can and does occur in all parts of Europe • improve knowledge about severe convective storms and their environments • find out whether an SPC-like guidance role can be played in Europe ECSS2004 León, Spain

  4. www.estofex.org Definition of a severe convective storm as used by ESTOFEX • To be severe, a convective storm has to produce at least one of the following phenomena: • Wind gusts in excess of 25 m/s (50 knots) • Hail with a diameter of more than 2 cm • Tornado Severe wind gusts that are not caused by convective storms are not considered in the forecasts! ECSS2004 León, Spain

  5. An ESTOFEX forecast • ESTOFEX issues • “convective forecasts” for the next day every evening • “updates” as required • These forecasts consist of two parts: • forecast discussion • forecast map ECSS2004 León, Spain

  6. An ESTOFEX forecast SEVERE STORMS UNLIKELY SLIGHT RISK Typical active mid-summer severe-weather day Isolated severe TSTMS MODERATE RISK Widespread severe TSTMS HIGH RISK Major severe TSTM outbreak ECSS2004 León, Spain

  7. Basic underlying concept moisture at low levels steep lapse rates CAPE Intersection: Possibility of severe convective Storms vertical wind shear lift

  8. Difficulties/Problems • volunteers with too limited time for issuing regular updates and „mesoscale discussions“ • risk levels are subjective • no formal verification • limited amount of data (e.g. surface observations) • mostly dependent on internet sources ECSS2004 León, Spain

  9. Future work • cooperation with the ESWD project • develop objective risk categories and a rigorous forecast verification scheme • obtain more observational and model data • offer additional products (e.g. mesoscale discussions) More distant future uncertain, maybe become part of organized pan-European initiative? ECSS2004 León, Spain

  10. Thank you for your attention! http://www.estofex.org ECSS2004 León, Spain

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