Computer-Aided Tools for Solving Environmental Security Problems

1. Computer-Aided Tools for Solving Environmental Security Problems Eugene Levner Holon Institute of Technology Holon, Israel Workshop SONET. Scalica, Slovakia, September 2008

2. OUTLINE 1. Definitions • 1.1. Definitions of “green supply chain”, “environmental risk”, and “house-of– risks”. • 1.2 An illustrative example 2. Descriptions of Two Environmental Problems • 2.1 The Jordan River Problem. • 2.2. The Dead Sea Problem. 3. Two OR models • 3.1. Risk mitigation planning for the Jordan River Problem (the facility layout and multiple-choice knapsack problems) • 3.2. Environmental risk minimization for the Dead Sea Problem (the multi-portfolio choice model). 4. Conclusions and Open Questions.

3. 1. MAIN DEFINITIONS

4. 1.1 Supply Chains • A Supply Chain (SC) means: “a global network of stakeholders - suppliers, manufacturers, transporters and customers - that function and cooperate with each other in order to improve their material and information flows with the aim to reach a compromise between the lowest cost, the best benefits and the smallest risks”. (Levner&Proth, 2003)

5. Supply Chains Thus, the main components of the supply chain are: • Material requisition and supply, • Manufacturing and packaging, • Distribution and transportation, • Customer service, and • Waste treatment, reuse, and disposal.

6. A chain-like supply chain Raw Materials Industry Distribution Consumer → → → Waste Disposal

7. 1.2 Environmental (“Green”) Supply Chains Environmental (“Green”) Supply Chain (ESC) means a supply chain in which environmentalprotectionissues are incorporated into the supply chain structure, and the environmental dimension is viewed as an inseparable part of business performance at all stages of the supply chain management. (Bloemhof et al. 1995, Carter&Narasimhan 1998, Levner&Proth 2003).

8. Environmental Supply Chains The concept of ESC introduces new decisions for suppliers and manufacturers in the supply chains necessary to decrease waste flows and the environmental pollution, even beyond their direct sale and delivery interests.

9. 1.3. Aqua-logistics Supply Chains The Aqua-logistics Supply Chain (ALSC) means a special class of the environmental supply chains describing a life cycle of water: extraction, distribution, utilization, re-use and disposal.

10. A General ALSC Water transportation and distribution Consumers - municipal use “Raw material”– Water in water sources “Manufacturing” - Pumping and water preparation Consumers- – industry, agriculture Consumers - tourism Secondary and tertiary wastewater recycling Wastewater transportation -Consumers- – agriculture, irrigation, parks, etc. Wastewater disposal Treated wastewater transportation and distribution

11. 1.4. What is the EnvironmentalRisk ?

12. Environmental Risk Definitions • Risk is a likelihood that a course of actions (a lack of thereof) will result in an undesired event (US EPA 1998, 2002). • Environmental Risk is defined as a two-dimensional array consisting of: (1) a probability of a threatto human health, to the natural environment - air, water, and land - upon which life depends, and to health of flora and fauna, and (2) a magnitude of losses (Levner and Proth 2003, 2005, Ganoulis and Levner, 2007).

13. 0.9 0.7 Probability of Damage 0.5 0.3 0.1 20 40 100 Impact = Amount of Pollution Qualitative Risk Matrix Amount of Pollution & Probability of Damage The matrix serves to rank the risks: the green tier denotes low level, grey –acceptable, yellow - high, red –very high. The matrix has the capability to evaluate the effectiveness of risk mitigation measures; white ellipses correspond to three different situations defined by three different risk-aversion strategies: a passive strategy leaves the risk level very high, a moderate policy decreases it to high, while an active strategy makes it acceptable. [THIS COLORING IS OUR FIRST MAIN ASSUMPTION]

14. Integrated Eco-Risk Index R = j=1,…, 5 r=1,…, RwjrRjr , where j is index of ecological risk classes j=1,…5 (human health, crops, animals, nature, infrastructure), and r is index of risk subclasses (age, diseases, professions, areas, etc.) wjr is weight, or importance R and Rjr are damage value (in physical or monetary units, or rating scale) [THIS SUMMATION IS OUR SECOND MAIN ASSUMPTION]

15. “House of Risks”for defining integrated risk magnitude Weights Irrigation Sewage Transport Consumers Risk factor 2 Risk factor 1 Water Quality Water Quantity Food Exposure Risk factor M Risk R1 0.8 Risk R2 0.05 0.05 Risk R3 Risk R4 0.05 Risk R5 0.05 Absolute risk value Costs Rows depict Risk classes. Columns – Risk factors, Risk sources

16. 2. Descriptions of Two Environmental Problems • 2.1 The Jordan River Problem. • 2.2. The Dead Sea Problem.

17. 2.1. The Jordan River: A general description • The Jordan River is a river in Southwest Asia flowing through the Great Rift Valley into the Dead Sea. • Historically and religiously, it is one of the world's most important rivers, where Christians believe Jesus was baptized. The waters of the Jordan are an extremely important resource to the dry lands of the area belonging to Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Israel and the Palestinians.

18. The Jordan River

19. The Jordan River Problem In modern times the waters are 70 to 90% used for human purposes and the flow is much reduced. Moreover, the river is heavily polluted and in its lower part, just raw sewage and runoff water from agriculture are flowing into the river. Most polluted is the 60-mile downstream stretch - a meandering stream from the Sea of Galilee to the Dead Sea.

20. The Jordan River Problem Environmentalists say the practice has almost destroyed the river's ecosystem. “The Jordan River will disappear if nothing is done soon. More than half of it is raw sewage and runoff water from agriculture. What keeps the river flowing today is sewage” -Friends of the Earth, Midddle East.

21. The Jordan River Problem (1) The overall goal is: Todevelop an OR-based multi-criteria optimization model for integrated management of water resources for the Lower Jordan Valley

22. The Jordan River Problem (2) Specific Objectives: • To design the water balance for all main water sources and provide a list of water saving strategies in the Jordan River Basin, (including innovative technologies for waste water treatment, alternative agricultural and irrigation techniques, desalination and water treatment stations, intensive rainwater harvesting, etc.) • Using the supply chain and House-of-Risks approach, evaluate the social, economical and ecological risks of different water resources utilization scenarios, at present and in the future. • Provide a comprehensive OR–based optimization model as a flexible tool for scientifically motivated and fair water allocation between all the water stakeholders in the Jordan River Basin.

23. The Dead Sea Problem (2) Main Threats to the Dead Sea • - water pumping from Lake Kinneret and the Yarmouk River for water supply has created a water deficit about 800 million cubic meters per year; • - industrial solar evaporation ponds at Chemical Works are responsible for about 20% of the total evaporation of Dead Sea waters; • -additional threats come from the uncoordinated tourism industry, hotels, transport, road building, etc.

24. 3. Two OR Models • 3.1. Risk mitigation planning for the Jordan River (the facility layout and multiple-choice knapsack problems) • 3.2. Environmental risk minimization for the Dead Sea Problem (the multi-portfolio choice model).

25. A General Framework for Two Problems Risk-Oriented Optimization Models • Which risk-mitigating strategies to select? • Which water treatment facilities to use? • Which water/wastewater technologies to use? in order TO MINIMIZE INTEGRATED REGIONAL RISK IMPACTS TO MINIMIZE TOTAL COSTS TO MINIMIZE UNCERTAINTY (“variance of returns from the portfolio of chosen strategies, facilities and technologies x”). under budgetory, technological, resource, legal and social constraints.

26. Facility Location Problem Objectives • (1) Minimize the total cost (facility building + connections) • (2) Minimize the environmental risk involved

27. CONCLUSIONS There are many ways to generalize, extend and customize the strategy selection problems using different CAD tools (MIP, FLP, MC2KP, etc.) mentioned above. The main problem to be studied in the future is to correctly describe the semantic values of risk impacts and to find a compromise between different water stakeholders interests (criteria) in the multi-criteria optimization problems.

28. Bibliography 1. K.-H. Elster, E.G. Gol’shtein, E. Levner, et al., Modern Mathematical Methods of Optimization, Akademie Verlag, Berlin, 1993, 416 pp. 2. E.Levner, I. Linkov and J.-M. Proth, Strategic Management of Marine Ecosystems, Springer, Berlin, 2005, 313 pages, ISBN 1-4020-3157. 3. E.Levner, J.Ganoulis, I.Linkov, Y. Benayahu, Multi-objective risk/cost analysis of artificial marine systems using decision trees, in I. Linkov (ed.), Risk Management Toolsfor Environmental Security, Critical Infrastructure and Sustainability, Springer, 2007. 4. D. Gluch, Construct for Describing SoftwareDevelopment Risks, Technical Report, CMU, 1994 . 5. H. M. Markowitz, Portfolio selection, Journal of Finance, Vol. 7, No.1, pp.77-91, 1952. 6. Rockafellar, R. and Uryasev, S., Optimization of conditional Value-at-Risk, Journal of Risk, No. 2, pp. 21–42, 2000.