Emergency Logistics in Anti-bioterrorism Systems

1. Emergency Logistics in Anti-bioterrorism Systems Lindu Zhao, Ph.D. Institute of Systems Engineering Southeast University P. R. China

2. Outline 1. Background of the Research2. Analyze the problem from the viewpoint of systems engineering 3. What can we do?4. So far, we have accomplished that…5. Future work

3. Anthrax mail SARS 911 Ebola Marburg Hemorrhagic fevers 1. Background of the Research How to relieve? Smallpox, Chorla … …

4. Emergency Logistics in America • In 1990s, America began to invest lots of money to build and perfect their warning defense system of public health emergency, aiming to defense the potential terrorism attacks of biology, chemistry and radioactivity material at the height of state safety.

5. Emergency Logistics in America • MMRS (Metropolitan Medical Response System) is an important part, which played a crucial role in the “9.11” tragedy and delivered 50 tons of medical materials to New York in 7 hours.

6. Emergency Logistics in America • In the bioterrorists’ attack of anthrax in October, 2001, the federal medicine reserve storage delivered a great deal of medical materials to local health departments. • In 2002, America invested $1.1 billion to enlarge the federal medicine reserve and added the reserve storages from 8 to 12, which covered the whole country.

7. Emergency Logistics in America • Any domestic place can get the reserved vaccine, antibiotics, medicine (including disinfection facilities) and other emergency rescue materials in 12 hours. • Besides, America invested $918 million to enlarge the medicine reserve of state and local health departments and developed the project titled NEME (National Emergency Medical Extranet).

8. Emergency Logistics in Other Countries • England, France, Italy and others have made anti-bioterrorism plans and established the anti-bioterrorism warning defense systems after “9.11” .

9. Emergency Logistics in China • How about China? • In 2003, the outbreak of SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) in China disclosed the vulnerability of our system for emergency rescue materials reserve and emergency distribution.

10. Emergency Logistics in China • Till May 9th2003, the State Department promulgated “Regulations of Responding Public Health Emergency”, and then, the system of emergency rescue materials reserve and distribution in China is to be regulated.

11. What’s the problem? • So, are we late?! • Another question is: what should we do?

12. 2. Analyze the problem from the viewpoint of systems engineering Covered by the emergency logistics • Keywords: (1) Diffusion (2) Coverage location (3) Collaboration Diffusion of the biological virus Covered by the emergency logistics

13. Diffusion of biological virus • Bioterrorist threats are real. They have a huge influence on social stability, economic development, and people’s physical and mental health. Moreover, the influence is at a global scale.

14. Diffusion of biological virus • Some scholars have used smallpox as a case and analyzed bio-terror response logistics. Their results show that the diffusion of the biological virus can be prevented in certain degree with vaccination or contact isolation.

15. An example… • Once a city is attacked by biological virus (such as smallpox, anthrax, botulin toxin, etc), it will construct a dangerous diffusion network, in which each person can be considered as a node. The disease will diffuse to another city when the person who has been infected moves from one place to another.

16. An example… emergency logistics network diffusion network

17. Cover the emergency demand • The flow of the emergency relief materials in the emergency logistics network is driven by the dangerous source diffusion network, which has different structure from the general logistics network.

18. Different between the two logistics modes Manufacturer Wholesaler Retailer Retailer Customer Fig.1 General logistics network evacuation Logistics Logistics Emergency Center Peoplein disaster area Vaccine Research isolation Fig.2 Emergency logistics network in the anti-bioterrorism system

19. Collaboration with the two networks • So, the rule of the dangerous source diffusion, and the collaboration between the diffusion network and the emergency logistics network should be available during the construction of an anti-bioterrorism warning defense system.

20. A Challenge • However, the reality is that we don’t even know what the virus will be and how to control it. Additionally, we have no effective vaccine during the initial response phase, for example, the case ofSRAS.

21. 3. What can we do? • Keywords: Diffusion Collaboration Emergency logistics network

22. The rule of dangerous source diffusion • Although the rule of dangerous source diffusion isn’t the major point in our research, it is the necessary part when analyzing the emergency demand. • Models such as SEIR, SEIR-like, SEIRS, SIS etc, will enlighten us during the research.

23. The collaboration between the two networks • The complex network models: (1)The uniform network model a> rule network model b> random graph model c> small-world network model (2) scale-free network model.

24. The collaboration between the two networks • Formulate the dangerous source diffusion network and the emergency logistics network using the complex network models.

25. The collaboration between the two networks • Based on the characteristic that emergency logistics network is driven by the dangerous source diffusion network, we investigate the collaborative relationship between the two networks.

26. Optimization of the emergency logistics network • Study the national emergency material storage model and optimize the distribution system model.

27. Optimization of the emergency logistics network • Develop the emergency resource allocation model in single city and urban agglomeration.

28. Optimization of the emergency logistics network • Analyze the integrated and dynamic models with both national emergency logistics network and city emergency logistics network.

29. Optimization of the emergency logistics network • Study the collaborative dynamic model of the multi-level complex network

30. Simulation of the emergency logistics network • Dynamic changes of the models mentioned above will be analyzed after the relative parameters are identified, and MATLAB will be used to obtain numerical simulation results.

31. Dynamic optimization of multilayer synergies Epidemical model Dangerous source diffusion model optimization of supply system Witness simulation ＋ Complex network model Coordination Numerical simulation Two Integrated Dynamic Optimization Optimization of country system model Optimization of City system model Emergency Logistics Network Model ＋ Feedback Indicators of emergency response system Modeling Optimization Simulation Nonlinear Dynamics; Network Theory Technical Route

32. Research Significance • First, it can increase our awareness of anti-bioterrorism, and provide examples for how to enhance our ability to protect national security and public safety.

33. Research Significance • Second, our research results in optimization and simulation of the network coordination mechanisms will be disseminated widely and provide potential applications in the domain of systems engineering and management.

34. We want to … • 1）Analyze dynamic behavior of the dangerous source diffusion process, discuss its topology and marginal values, and establish randomness and definite dangerous source diffusion models. • 2）Analyze both time and spatial complexity of the dynamic multi-stage emergency logistics network.

35. We want to … • 3）Establish a multi-level complex, coordinated network model to make sure continuous supply and smooth operation. • 4）Develop a multi-level dynamic simulation algorithm for emergency logistics network.

36. 4. So far, we have accomplished that… • The Scheduling Problem of Emergency Resource with Pulse Need • ZHAO Lindu, LIU Ming, DAI Dongfu. Research on Scheduling Problem of Emergency Resource with Pulse Need[J]. Journal of Southeast University, 2008, In press

37. Without vaccination With pulse vaccination We have accomplished that… • Analysis of a Biological Dangerous Source Diffusing Dynamics Model with Migration • Qu Linbo, Han Ruizhu. Analysis of a Biology Dangerous Source Diffusing Dynamics Model with Migration[J]. Journal of Southeast University, 2007, 37, S(II), 381-386

38. We have accomplished that… • Analysis of the synergetic dynamics model of emergency rescue network in the anti-bioterrorism system • Li Zhi, Han Ruizhu, Liu Ming. Analysis of the synergetic dynamics model of emergency rescue network in the anti-bioterrorism system[J]. Journal of Southeast University, 2007, 37, S(II), 374-380

39. Storage 2 Storage 1 Storage 3 Storage n Storage 4 …… Replenishment system Storage 5 Storage network We have accomplished that… • Emergency Service Modes of Supply Chains with Replenishment Sources • WS • Lindu Zhao, LiSun. Emergency Service Modes of Supply Chains with Replenishment Sources[C]. 5th International Conference on Service Systems and Sernvice Management, Australia, 2008

40. Storage 2 Storage 1 Storage 3 Storage n Storage 4 …… Storage network Replenishment system We have accomplished that… • Emergency Service Modes of Supply Chains with Replenishment Sources • WOS • Lindu Zhao, LiSun. Emergency Service Modes of Supply Chains with Replenishment Sources[C]. 5th International Conference on Service Systems and Sernvice Management, Australia, 2008

41. We have accomplished that… • Emergency Service Modes of Supply Chains with Replenishment Sources • Lindu Zhao, LiSun. Emergency Service Modes of Supply Chains with Replenishment Sources[C]. 5th International Conference on Service Systems and Sernvice Management, Australia, 2008

42. Curve of total cost of rescue change with inoculation cycle Curve of epidemic periods change with inoculation cycle We have accomplished that… • Emergency Service Modes of Supply Chains with Replenishment Sources • Lindu Zhao, LiSun. Emergency Service Modes of Supply Chains with Replenishment Sources[C]. 5th International Conference on Service Systems and Sernvice Management, Australia, 2008

43. Storage 2 Storage 1 Storage 3 Storage n Storage 4 …… Storage network Replenishment system We have accomplished that… • Emergency Service Modes of Supply Chains with Replenishment Sources • Zhao Lindu. A Collaboration Model for Emergency Rescue Systems[C]. POMS 19th Annual Conference, USA, 2008

44. We have accomplished that… • A Replenishment Model for Emergency Rescue Systems • ZHAO Lin-du JIANG Yi-ping. A Replenishment Model for Emergency Rescue Systems[C]. The Third International Conference on Innovative Computing, Information and Control, 2008 The collaborative replenishment network of emergency rescue system

45. We have accomplished that… • Study on large-crowd dispersing in densely gathering place by using crowd dynamics module • Sun li, Zhao lindu. Study on large-crowd dispersing in densely gathering place by using crowd dynamics module[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2007,7(5):124-127.

46. National emergency storage City emergency center Capacity and the costs Emergency demand points We have accomplished that… • Integrated and Dynamic Optimization Control of Multi-Level Anti-bioterrorism Emergency Logistics Network • Liu Ming, Zhao Lindu, Cheng Ting. Integrated and Dynamic Optimization Control of Multi-Level Anti-bioterrorism Emergency Logistics Network[J]. Journal of Southeast University, 2007, 37, S(II), 361-366

47. Accumulation process of emergency materials We have accomplished that… • Urban Emergency Coordination Based on Social Networks • Lin Chong Zhao Lindu. Research on Urban Emergency Coordination Based on Social Networks[J]. China public security, 2008, In press City social network

48. We have accomplished that… • Designing Optimal Emergency Logistics Networks with Time Delay and Demand Uncertainty • Wang Xinping Wang Haiyan. Designing Optimal Emergency Logistics Networks with Time Delay and Demand Uncertainty[C]. POMS 19th Annual Conference, USA, 2008 graph of epidemic diffusion model under situation that no emergency measures are adopted graph of epidemic diffusion model under situation that emergency measures are adopted

49. More about our work … Some other papers

50. 5. Future work • Key points: 1> Further description of the diffusion rule. 2> Further research on how to optimize the emergency logistics network driven by biological virus diffusion. 3> Further research on how to collaborate and integrate the former two networks.