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Britt Fair December 15, 2011

Real Estate 2012: More Uncertainty. Britt Fair December 15, 2011. Other Unique Home Listings. Other Unique Home Listings. Other Unique Home Listings. Other Unique Home Listings. Slow Cumulative Recovery from “Great Recession”. “Great Recession” Cuts Deeper.

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Britt Fair December 15, 2011

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  1. Real Estate 2012: More Uncertainty Britt Fair December 15, 2011

  2. Other Unique Home Listings

  3. Other Unique Home Listings

  4. Other Unique Home Listings

  5. Other Unique Home Listings

  6. Slow Cumulative Recovery from “Great Recession”

  7. “Great Recession” Cuts Deeper

  8. Consumers Saving Slows GDP Growth

  9. Business Investment Rebounding

  10. Consumer Confidence & Jobs “Decouple”

  11. Headlines Since August 1 • Debt ceiling debate goes down to wire • No big deal - the markets barely moved, and everyone knew it would get done somehow • S&P downgrades US Treasury bonds • Washington expresses disbelief, but rest of the world already knew US was not “risk-free” • Odd market reaction (Treasury rates fell!) – maybe something more important happening • Europe pledges more “bailouts” for PIIGS • Good news that Germany is supportive, but bad news that the problems don’t seem to be fading

  12. Panic in Markets Has Boosted Gold

  13. 10-Year US Treasury bond yields Fed’s “QE2” Greece is the word Greece, Round 2

  14. 10-Year US Treasury bond history Shows how low interest rates are by any historical measure

  15. Current Status of Job Market • Job gains are too slow for comfort • Tracks US population growth • Private sector up 1.8 million jobs last 12 months, but still down over 6 million jobs vs. December 2007 • Misleading drop in unemployment rate • Dropped from 9% to 8.6% in Nov • Not real - people stopped looking • Slow job growth is due to “uncertainty” • Uncertainty of clients’ demand • Uncertainty over future rules, taxes, initiatives, etc.

  16. Metro Employment Change(10/10-10/11) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  17. Employment Change (10/10-10/11)12 Largest US Metro Areas Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  18. Stock market wealth effect:3-year recovery helped “rich get richer”

  19. NTREIS Dollar Volume Since 2004

  20. DFW Sales By Price 2011 (page 1)

  21. DFW Sales By Price 2011 (page 2)

  22. Today’s Market: NTREIS Sales YTD November 2011

  23. DFW housing since 1999: No Boom/Bust DFW home prices down 7.9% from Jun’07 peak, but up 3.8% from Feb’09 bottom Source: S&P Case-Shiller

  24. Fewer DFW homeowners are “underwater” Source: CoreLogic

  25. Summary & Predictions • 2012 housing market will look a lot like 2011 • European sovereign debt crisis will continue to cause uncertainty • Mudslinging in US election season will keep negativity • Interest rates will remain remarkably low throughout 2012 • DFW economic recovery will outpace national average • Job creation and general business environment are much better here • Oil and gas industry also boosts DFW • City and state finances are healthier than others in US • Home prices appear to have stabilized in DFW • Further free fall of home values appears unlikely • This remains one of the best times in US history to buy a home with the combination of ultra-low mortgage rates and reasonable home prices

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