NOAA’s National Weather Service National Digital Forecast Database: Status Update

1. NOAA’s National Weather ServiceNational Digital Forecast Database: Status Update LeRoy Spayd Chief, Meteorological Services Division Unidata Policy Committee February 5-6, 2004

2. National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) Accomplishments Since 9/11/03 • Establishment of Digital Services Program in Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services • NWS Instruction 10-506, Digital Data Products/Services Specification • http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/010/010.htm • Effective on January 2, 2004 • Update to Instruction 10-102 in draft form, New or Enhanced Products and Services • Includes proposed criteria for implementation of new official NDFD products

3. NWSI 10-506 Highlights • Provides a framework for products and services generated from the digital forecast database prepared by the NWS • Specifies definitions, collaboration thresholds, and minimum grid production times for digital forecast elements • Establishes collaboration responsibilities to achieve forecast consistency • Defines and describes the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)

4. Draft NWSI 10-102 Highlights • Proposed criteria for transition of products from internal to experimental and then to official • Objective Quality Assessment • Spatial consistency • Inter element consistency • Objective verification • Operational Readiness • Availability • Timeliness • Completeness • Service product retention • Continuity of operations

5. NDFD Plans for Product Implementation • Period of public comment on these elements ended December 2003: • Maximum Temperature • Minimum Temperature • Probability of Precipitation (12 hr forecast) • Weather • Wind speed and direction • Significant wave height • Public comments on NDFD graphics 95% positive • Decision on implementation of these elements will be made by March 31, 2004

6. NDFD Plans for Product Implementation (continued) • Public comment period on these elements continues until March 2004 • Temperature • Dewpoint • Quantitative precipitation (QPF) • Snow Amount • Decision on implementation of these elements will be made by June 30, 2004 • Will continue this 3-6 month process with additional experimental NDFD elements

7. NDFD Verification Activities • Prototyping NDFD verification capabilities • Comparison to point observations • Metar • Comparison to point based guidance • Global Forecast System MOS • Comparison to gridded analyses • Rapid Update Cycle (RUC)

8. National Digital Forecast Database Point Based Verification

9. National Digital Forecast Database Point Based Verification

10. National Digital Forecast Database Gridded Verification

11. NDFD Verification Trend by Forecast Period

12. NDFD Weather Elements Over Marine Zones • Some parameters such as maximum temperature may not be required by mariners • Complexity of preparation of products over marine zones -limited observational sites for validation of skill

13. NDFD Issues of Concern to NWS Customers and Partners • Limited feedback from customers on use of gridded data • Need for customer and partner feedback on requirements for criteria to make NDFD grids elements operational • Gridded Elements over Marine Zones may have separate implementation time frames

14. NWS Partner Comments for NDFDJanuary 2004 • Majority of respondents prefer: • Data formats in addition to GRIB 2: • XML • netCDF • Additional dissemination system • NOAA’s Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS) • Additional protocols • Non-ftp access • Open Source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol (OPeNDAP) • Unanimous request for NDFD Verification Statistics to be made available on public web site