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Changes in The Climatic Regime on The Caspian See Regions over The Past Century

Changes in The Climatic Regime on The Caspian See Regions over The Past Century Nikolay Sidorenkov 1 and Valentina Shveikina 2 1 Hydrometcentr of Russia, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 11-13, Moscow, 123458, Russia e-mail: sidorenkov@mecom.ru

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Changes in The Climatic Regime on The Caspian See Regions over The Past Century

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  1. Changes in The Climatic Regime on The Caspian See Regions overThe Past Century Nikolay Sidorenkov1 and Valentina Shveikina2 1Hydrometcentr of Russia, Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 11-13, Moscow, 123458, Russia e-mail: sidorenkov@mecom.ru 2Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences

  2. ABSTRACT A unique database of the Hydrometcentr of Russia is used to determine characteristic periodsof changes in the air temperature, annual sums of precipitation, and cloudiness over theCaspian Sea region. The analysis of the above data series using the integrated (cumulative) curves showed good agreement between fluctuations of meteorological elements and theatmospheric circulation epochs. It is shown that the correlation between these epochs and theEarth rotation regimes may be used for the assessment of the state and tendencies of changein the climatic regime in the Caspian Sea basin.

  3. Figure 1. Changes in mean annual air temperature (top) and annual sums of precipitation (bottom curve), both averaged over the area of the Volga basin

  4. Figure 2. Integrated (cumulative) sums of anomalies: of circulation form frequency C' (bottom), annual sum of precipitation R/ (middle), and mean annual air temperature T' (top)

  5. Figure 3. Synchronous changes in the length of day (solid curve) and the integrated (cumulative) sum of anomalies of circulation form frequency C' (dashed curve)

  6. Figure 4. Changes in the Caspian sea level in 1891-2005

  7. Figure 5. Changes in the Caspian sea level (top) and the cumulative sum D of the discharge water through the Volgograd dam (after calculation: (D/2-100) km^3) (bottom) in 1891-2005

  8. Conclusion It is found that the sea level rise, started in 1978, was due to the circulation epoch change in 1972. The new epoch was remarkable for a low frequency of the circulation form C and a high frequency of the form E. Onset of this epoch favoured to an increase in R, O, and T and decrease in the wind speed. Due to this, the runoff of the Volga increased and the evaporation from the sea surface decreased, both causing the sea level rise. A delay in the sea level response to the changed circulation regime is due to the process inertia. The climatic epoch that began in 1973 will probably end in the nearest years, and a new climatic epoch will begin. The climate change and the subsequent change of the Caspian Sea water balance sign are expected in 2007±3 years. The sea level rise will last up to 2010±3 years and after that it will start to drop up to 2045 ±5 years.

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