Re-imagining Rural Transport Transitions & Futures in South Africa

1. RE-IMAGINING RURAL TRANSPORT TRANSITIONS &FUTURES IN SOUTH AFRICASATC Presentation10th July 2017CSIR International Convention Centre, PretoriaAuthors: James Chakwizira & Mac MashiriPresented by: James Chakwizira (PhD), University of Venda, School of Environmental Sciences, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, P/Bag X5050, Thohoyandou, 0950Tel: +27 (0)15 962 8585; Cell: +27 (0)76 387 7814; Email: james.chakwizira@univen.ac.za ; jameschakwizira@gmail.com

2. PRESENTATION ROADMAP • INTRODUCTION • RESEARCH METHODS • LITERATURE REVIEW • DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS & RESULTS • RECOMMENDATIONS • CONCLUSIONS

3. INTRODUCTION • Rural transport system: a socio-economic, environmental & political technical system that consists of a cluster of aligned elements (e.g. artifacts, knowledge etc.) • Rural transport transition & futures foresight studies inadequately exist in SA regarding the application of ‘circular’ foresight methodologies • Road infrastructure is a fundamental component in the development of successful, vibrant, sustainable, integrated & thriving communities • The road network is part of the social fabric that links people & communities together improving transport linkages & reducing isolation

4. INTRODUCTION • Along with connecting people, roads support the trading of goods & services, & sustain the agricultural activities that occur in rural environments • Although household access to basic services has improved, much remains to be done to further improve the livelihoods of poor people who continue to receive no services; especially in rural areas • The biggest constraint has been availability of infrastructure & the application of appropriate delivery technologies in remote rural areas. • DoT will develop & implement Access Road Development Plans to improve rural road infrastructure in identified municipalities • DoT will also develop & implement the Integrated Public Transport Network Plans in rural municipalities

5. INTRODUCTIONTheoretical Background • This paper emerges from integrating insights located in 2 disciplines: • transportation engineering; and • spatial planning • The integration of these knowledge domains is achieved in the context of: • seeking to reconcile & align the long-term foresight & socio-economic; • political & environmental technical transitions; and • bringing them into the context of rural transport transitions & futures strategic planning & practical decision & policy-making

6. INTRODUCTIONResearch Aim & Objectives • The aim of this paper is to present scenarios linked to re-imagining rural transport transitions & futures in SA & explore the policy implications for SA • The aim is achieved through the following paper’s objectives: • What is a conceptual framework for seeking to understand rural transport transitions & futures in SA • Which methods can be used in carrying out a comprehensive rural transport transitions & futures study/project in SA • What are the possible transport transitions & futures in SA that can be (re)imagined from analyzing existing literature in SA; and • Are there any policy implications & directions that a rural transport transitions & futures approach can suggest for SA.

7. RESEARCH METHODS • Using SA as a case study, the paper employs a gap & thematic analysis technique to analyse existant literature in terms (re)imagining rural transport transitions & futures in SA • Through this process & reflecting on a combined experience of half-a century of practice shared between the authors, rural transport transitions & futures in SA are identified & their implications regarding innovation in science & technology explored • Along with employing a system of innovation & transitions theoretical framework, (im)possible transport futures in SA are predicted

8. LITERATURE REVIEWThe Mobilities Syntax for Rural Transport in South Africa

9. LITERATURE REVIEWThe Mobilities Syntax for Rural Transport in South Africa

10. LITERATURE REVIEWTaxonomy of Innovations & Implications for Rural Transport Transitions & Futures • 2 of the terms – incremental & radical innovation – are often distinguished using one or both of the following criteria: • novelty of the knowledge base underlying the innovation; and • scale & significance of the economic consequences of the innovation

11. LITERATURE REVIEWTaxonomy of Innovations & Implications for Rural Transport Transitions & Futures • (Co-)evolutionary • Co-evolutionary approach to innovation overarching theme in modern innovation • occurs when different sub-systems have mutual interactions which affect the development of each system • Uncertainty in modelling rural transport transitions & futures • Implicit in a number of the above considerations is the presence of uncertainty, particularly fundamental or intrinsic uncertainty • Fundamental uncertainty refers to situations that are not – or cannot – be known in advance, because they are outside existing conceptual models. • Knowledge & learning in rural transport transitions & futures • Knowledge is often claimed to be the most fundamental resource in an innovation system, while learning is the most important process • As innovation theory has developed, the understanding of different kinds & forms of knowledge & learning have expanded our insights into the development & diffusion of innovations.

12. LITERATURE REVIEWRural Transport Transitions & Futures

13. LITERATURE REVIEWRural Transport Transitions & Futures

14. LITERATURE REVIEWRural Transport Transitions & Futures Vision Building Process in SA • Vision needs to be developed to anticipate potential rural transport system transitions & futures • Vision development process consists of 3 steps, where appropriate futures techniques are used to involve transport sector experts • 3 steps of the rural transport system transitions & futures vision building: • Rural transport system transitions & futures environmental scanning: A survey of forces of change, where trends & signals to impact the transport system & the entire society in the selected time frame • Rural transport system transitions & futures visioning: To arrange future workshop where relevant transport system stakeholder groups take part • Describing rural transport system transitions & futures visions: The vision path is formulated by selecting a suitable alternative future describing each variable to define the vision

15. LITERATURE REVIEWImplications of Conventional Views from Rural Transport Practitioners • In addressing rural transport transitions & futures, there should be appreciation of conventional viewpoints from rural transport practitioners (for understanding, the past, present & future) • 3 key messages can be advanced from literature review: • Engineering & construction paradigm: Transport is viewed as an enabling technology that facilitates mass production &globalisation • Spatial economic science paradigm: Approach that integrates space time convergence into transportation leads to an enhanced understanding of how transport plays out in a context where concentration & specialisation of economic activity predominates • New directions paradigm: This is based on an expanded understanding of how the new economic geography which is based on optimising the economic laws of increasing returns to scale & competitive advantage are linked to the transport dividend

16. LITERATURE REVIEWImplications of Conventional Views from Rural Transport Practitioners The multiple nature of transport Accessibility, the cost of transport & economic efficiency • Expert vires on rural transport takes the following dimensions: Transport as a derived demand Transport as a substitutable input Transport as an engine of growth Transport infrastructure & accessibility User benefits & the wider economic benefits of transport External accessibility & the ‘two-way’ road Internal accessibility & efficiency

17. LITERATURE REVIEWImplications of Conventional Views from Rural Transport Practitioners • Space & place are viewed as distance with a physical measure of travel in the transportation field • As a result, planning has an instrumental role in reducing trip lengths as advanced by the sustainable mobility paradigm • Graphical illustration of the sustainable mobility paradigm which resonates with the need for rural transport transitions & futures in SA. TRIPS Substitute or not make them DISTANCE Shorten trip lengths, land use planning MODE Use of public transport, walk & cycle EFFICIENCY Load factors, Fuel Efficiency, Design

18. LITERATURE REVIEWProblems related to Travel in & through Rural Areas • Table 5 presents the outcome of a gap analysis linked to rural transport. Rural areas in South Africa face complex, dynamic & interrelated challenges of accessibility & mobility that an exercise aimed at addressing rural transitions & futures should not miss addressing.

19. LITERATURE REVIEWRural Transport System Transitions & Futures Conceptual Framework • Robust, efficient & functional rural transport system is a vital component of a sustainable, integrated & inclusive rural community • Transport is an enabler, providing mobility in the society • Transport system is affected & impacted on by other systems (e.g. energy systems) • Socio-economic, political & environmental, technological changes & transition processes in the transport system can be explored using a 3 lever rural transport transitions & futures framework: • Rural transport lever A. Rural landscape & environment • Rural transport lever B. Rural transport system & structures • Rural transport lever C. Rural transport technologies & (re)solutions.

20. LITERATURE REVIEWRural Transport System Transitions & Futures Conceptual Framework Regular • Positioning each rural transport transition & futures component is linked to the relevant lever where interventions & activities are implemented & monitored • All levers are interrelated thereby constituting a system of levers • Possible typologies of rural transport transitions & futures in SA: Hyperturbulence Specific Shock Disruptive (change on one dimension) Avalanche (change on multiple dimensions)

21. DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS & RESULTSAn Advanced Understanding of Rural Transport Transitions & Futures Physical Mobility Mobile technological networks • Advanced understanding rural transport transitions & futures should that illustrates the complexity involved in seeking to resolve rural transport transitions & futures • Tackling rural transport transitions requires an understanding of the changing technology & impacts on travel, transport & interactions for society Everyday life perspective Global / Outside ‘To come to…’ ‘To imagine…’ Local / Inside ‘To get around in…’ ‘To be (identity)…’ Tourism / business perspective Physical Social Networks Virtual / Mental Mobility

22. DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS & RESULTSAn Advanced Understanding of Rural Transport Transitions & Futures Vehicle production chain (companies, spare parts, vehicles) • Mobilities do not ‘just happen’ or simply ‘take place’ • Mobilities are carefully & meticulously designed, planned, & ‘staged’ • Rural transport transitions & futures in SA will be attached to images linked to storytelling • This can be powerful ways of seeking to illustrate a set of rural transport scenarios that can be described as ‘a way of telling stories about the future’ Fuel production chain (fuels, electricity) Users (transport service providers, fleet owners, consumers) Raw materials production chains Supporting services (maintenance, fuel, distribution, testing, equipment)

23. DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS & RESULTSMethods for Mapping Rural Transport Transitions & Futures

24. DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS & RESULTSPossible Rural Transport Transitions & Futures Scenarios in SA • Rural transport transitions & futures are scenarios representing strong narratives that have been developed with stakeholders’ input • Their purpose is to prompt conversation &engagement on where we might be headed as well as where we are now • It can be tempting to just focus on probable & preferable futures – however – plausible futures can help prompt new insights by taking a wider view

25. DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS & RESULTSPossible Rural Transport Transitions & Futures Scenarios in SA • 5 five types of futures described that can be helpful to illustrate the potential range of rural transport transitions & futures that may occur in SA • Potential rural transport futures: • Alternative futures in general, including those we cannot even begin to imagine • Possible rural transport futures: • All the kinds of futures we can possibly imagine • Plausible rural transport futures: • Futures which could happen according to our current knowledge • Probable rural transport futures: • Futures which are considered likely to happen • Preferable rural transport future: • What we want to happen based on subjective value judgments

26. DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS & RESULTSPossible Rural Transport Transitions & Futures Scenarios in SA • Judgment of what is possible, plausible, probable, or even preferable; will differ between people &over time • This makes the discussions about scenarios so engaging &d important • It is these discussions which can generate rich insights into the future, & inform decisions in the present Now Possible Potential Plausible Probable Preferable Potential

27. DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS & RESULTSPossible Rural Transport Transitions & Futures Scenarios in SA

28. DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS & RESULTSPossible Rural Transport Transitions & Futures Scenarios in SA

29. DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS & RESULTSPossible Rural Transport Transitions & Futures Scenarios in SA • Possible rural transport transitions & futures factors of Change in SA

30. RECOMMENDATIONSTowards a Cross, Inter, Trans & Multidisciplinary Rural Mobilities Map • The preceding discussions, one may postulate that there is need to anchor & establish future rural mobilities in SA as a cross-cultural disciplinary field • Cooperation & collaboration between & among disciplines in critical in building a sustainable, integrative & inclusive rural transport transitions & futures

31. RECOMMENDATIONSTowards a Cross, Inter, Trans & Multidisciplinary Rural Mobilities Map

32. RECOMMENDATIONSLessons for Rural Transport Interventions Transitions & Futures in SA • One way of re-imagining rural transport transitions & futures in SA is through (re)questioning existing transport policy objectives as found in mainstream policy documents • Key questions one may ask include the following: • Is transport over-burdened as a sector? • Are transport issues playing subordinate to wider policy interests? • Is there an evident over-reliance on the role & scope that transport can play in solving all of a region’s or country’ problems which may be construed as being “unwise”?

33. RECOMMENDATIONSLessons for Rural Transport Interventions Transitions & Futures in SA

34. RECOMMENDATIONSPathways for the Creation of New Business Opportunities • It is paramount to envisage the rural transport transitions & futures as presenting pathways for creating & expanding existing & new business development & growth opportunities. • Intelligent application of rural transport foresight studies is fundamental to unleashing the full potential of rural areas Rapid Rail

35. CONCLUSIONS • We need to consider environment are grand challenge carefully as we make strategic plans for future transport systems • Potential measures & innovations to tackle the grand challenges are systemic, resulting in system innovation or transition • There may be multiple guiding visions & multiple rural transport transition & futures paths in SA for each vision • Rural transport transition paths are routes toward the final image • Rural transport transition & futures paths incorporate interim goals & objectives which evolve & become more concrete the closer they are to the present • There is a need to realise that ‘people & economies thrive in places where it is easy to do business, be creative & live a healthy lifestyle’

36. Thank You!