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Wind Industry Market Scan. Agenda. Introduction Large-Scale Wind Industry Overview Global and US Stats Strengths & Weaknesses Players Small-Scale Wind Industry Overview TBD TBD TBD Other Factors (TBD) TBD TBD Conclusion. Large-Scale Wind Global. >200,000 Employees
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Agenda • Introduction • Large-Scale Wind Industry Overview • Global and US Stats • Strengths & Weaknesses • Players • Small-Scale Wind Industry Overview • TBD • TBD • TBD • Other Factors (TBD) • TBD • TBD • Conclusion
Large-Scale WindGlobal • >200,000 Employees • >$30 Billion Market Size • 20,000 MW Installed in 2007 • >28% growth rate over last decade • >100,000 turbines installed • Over 70 countries • >93,000 MW capacity • 65% concentration in Europe • 145% Growth in China, 26% in Canada, 25% in India (2007) Sources: Global Wind Energy Council (www.gwec.net), Clean Edge Clean Energy Report 2008 (www.cleanedge.com)
Large-Scale WindUS in 2007 • Over 17,000 MW Installed Capacity • Over 5,200 MW Installed in 2007 • Largest Installer for third consecutive year • 45% Growth Rate • 7,500 MW Installed Projected in 2008 • Texas >4300 MW Installed • California >2400 MW Installed • Turbine and component manufacturers operating in more than 10 states Source: American Wind Energy Association (www.awea.org)
Large-Scale WindStrengths • Advancement in technology • 2000 avg turbine capacity .76 MW • 2007 avg turbine capacity 1.6 MW • “Free” Energy Source • Federal Production Tax Credits • State Renewable Portfolios • External Investment • Advances in cost-competitiveness • Fixed rate offerings through select utilities Source: American Wind Energy Association (www.awea.org)
Large-Scale WindWeaknesses • Irregularity of PTC renewals • One-year renewal in 2008 • Out-dated infrastructure • Component supply shortages • Possible demand shortages • Oct 08 - Gamesa halts production to avoid excess • Current Economic Environment • Credit Crunch • Lack of demand for PTC pass-throughs • Reduced CapEx Plans for 2009 • Oct 28 - FPL plans to reduce 400 MW installation in 2009 Source: American Wind Energy Association (www.awea.org), recent news
Large-Scale WindTurbine Manufacturers • Vestas - 27,000 MW installed, 23% Global Market Share. Oct 08 - Providing 23 turbines to the Totoral project in Chile. • Gamesa - 13,000 MW installed, 15% Global Market Share. Oct 08 - Announced reduced production to avoid excess supply. • GE - 11,300 MW installed, over 8,400 turbines. Oct 08 - GE claims nearly 50% US market share of 2007 installed capacity. • Suzlon - 6,000 MW installed, 10% Global Market Share. Oct-08 - Announced plan to “strengthen over 1200 US blades due to cracking” • Siemens - 6,000 MW installed, over 6,600 turbines. Oct 08 - Partnering with E.On to supply 90 wind turbines for project off of Danish coast.
US Market Share by 2007 Installation Source: AWEA 2008 Annual Rankings Report
Small-Scale WindOverview • Defined as <100kw by AWEA • Sold in 50 states and exported to over 120 countries • “Serious” markets exist in states with tax incentives and accommodating zoning • Ex. Oregon - $4500 tax credit per installed kw, $35,000 residential cap. $4000 per installed kw, $60,000 commercial cap. • Ex. Federal credit of up to $4000 ($1000 per kw of capacity) for residential and up to 30% uncapped for commercial • Expected 18-20% growth through 2010
