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PlanSafe NCHRP 8-44(02): Transportation Safety Planning: Forecasting the Safety Impacts in Socio-Demographic Changes

PlanSafe NCHRP 8-44(02): Transportation Safety Planning: Forecasting the Safety Impacts in Socio-Demographic Changes and Safety Countermeasures. Ida van Schalkwyk Oregon State University idavan@engr.oregonstate.edu In cooperation with Dr. Simon Washington @ UC Berkeley Daehyun You @ ASU.

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PlanSafe NCHRP 8-44(02): Transportation Safety Planning: Forecasting the Safety Impacts in Socio-Demographic Changes

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  1. PlanSafeNCHRP 8-44(02): Transportation Safety Planning: Forecasting the Safety Impacts in Socio-Demographic Changes and Safety Countermeasures Ida van SchalkwykOregon State Universityidavan@engr.oregonstate.edu In cooperation with Dr. Simon Washington @ UC Berkeley Daehyun You @ ASU September 11th, 2009 Oregon Transportation Summit in Portland, OR

  2. Overview September 11th, 2009 Oregon Transportation Summit in Portland, OR

  3. Need & Project Objectives Overview of NCHRP 8-44(2)

  4. The Need How do we incorporate safety into the long range transportation planning process? September 11th, 2009 Oregon Transportation Summit in Portland, OR

  5. NCHRP 8-44(02) Objectives September 11th, 2009 Oregon Transportation Summit in Portland, OR

  6. Background to the software tool What is Plansafe?

  7. Using PlanSafe Estimate effect of • Socio-demographic changes • Network related changes (volumes, large scale projects) • Engineering & behavioral countermeasures @ planning level on crashes @ the planning level Changes at the area-level Effect on safety? E.g. increase population density Impact on fatal & disabling injury crash severity? September 11th, 2009 Oregon Transportation Summit in Portland, OR

  8. Using PlanSafe • Measure/estimate area-wide effects on crashes • Compare scenarios • Growth • Network changes • Future forecasts (demand models) • Area-wide countermeasure implementation • Planning level crash estimation September 11th, 2009 Oregon Transportation Summit in Portland, OR

  9. Tools within PlanSafe The PlanSafe Software Package

  10. The Software Package Dataset preparation Analysis/Prediction PLANSAFEGIS Tool • INPUT DATA • GIS Shape Files (Polygon/Line/Point) • Census Data PLANSAFE Main Tool PLANSAFECensus Tool FORECAST SAFETY with/without countermeasure or different development scenarios at the planning level September 11th, 2009 Oregon Transportation Summit in Portland, OR

  11. What can the PlanSafemain analysis tool do? PlanSafe Main Analysis Tool

  12. Compare Crash Outcomes for Different Growth Scenarios a) Either import future transportation demand model information Future Transportation Supply/Demand PLANSAFE GIS Tool Future Census Information OR b) Apply growth factor to target area to account for future growth September 11th, 2009 Oregon Transportation Summit in Portland, OR

  13. And/Or – Evaluate Impact of Countermeasure @ Future Point in Time @ Planning Level • PlanSafeincludes Countermeasure Effect Resource Table • STEP 1: Prepare Data • STEP 2: Identify Target Area • STEP 3: Select the countermeasure • From resource table (drop down menu); or • Add your own • STEP 4: Results! September 11th, 2009 Oregon Transportation Summit in Portland, OR

  14. Example of information in PlanSafe Countermeasure Resource Table September 11th, 2009 Oregon Transportation Summit in Portland, OR

  15. Predictive Capabilities Built-In SPFs PlanSafe assess the goodness-of-fit of the built-in and provided models Automatically select the best fitting model Calibrate automatically Provides results • KABCO crashes (All crashes) • KA crashes (Fatal & Incapacitating Injury Crashes) • KAB crashes (Fatal, Incapacitating & Non-Incapacitating Crashes) • Bicycle crashes • Pedestrian crashes • Deer crashes (some regions experience high proportions of deer/animal crashes) But: you can add your own Safety Performance Functions September 11th, 2009 Oregon Transportation Summit in Portland, OR

  16. Results

  17. Results

  18. Helping you get the data ready for the PlanSafeAnalysis Tool Supplemental Tools

  19. PlanSafeSupplemental Tool PlanSafeGIS Tool

  20. PlanSafe GIS Tool Assigned in GIS to Study Areas (census block groups, TAZs, etc.)

  21. PlanSafe GIS Tool Makes data preparation in ArcGISsuper easy • TAZ boundaries are often major roadways • Geospatial differences: roadways and boundaries don’t line up and if they do – where do they belong? • Crashes occur on roadways that form boundaries – where do they belong? • Agencies usually don’t have an intersection GIS layer

  22. PlanSafeSupplemental Tool PlanSafeCensus Tool

  23. When Will PlanSafe be Available? • NCHRP 8-44(2) is wrapping up the project (product delivery will likely be within the next month) • Project Report and Product Submittal to NCHRP panel • Standard TRB process to release for public use

  24. Key Contacts • TRB/ NCHRP • Rick Pain: rpain@nas.edu, (202)334-2964 • Chuck Niessner: cniessne@nas.edu, (202) 334-1431 • NCHRP 8-44(2) • Principal Investigator: Simon Washington, simon.washington@berkeley.edu, 510 643-1770 • Predictive Modeling & Software Tool: Ida van Schalkwyk, idavan@engr.oregonstate.edu

  25. The End – Or Just the Beginning…

  26. Questions?

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