220 likes | 348 Views
China’s Economy and the NPC. Albert Keidel Senior Fellow, The Atlantic Council of the United States AKeidel@Keidel.us. March 17, 2010 International Economics Program The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Washington, DC. Annual GDP Growth and Inflation, 1980-2009.
E N D
China’s Economy and the NPC Albert Keidel Senior Fellow, The Atlantic Council of the United States AKeidel@Keidel.us March 17, 2010 International Economics Program The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Washington, DC
Quarterly GDP component growth and growth contributions
Month-on-month CPI inflation is up … To an annualized 12-percent rate. How bad could this be? Maybe not bad.
Is the RMB too low? … or too high?! After the euro fell in July, 2008 China decided not to let the RMB depreciate against the US$
In economics -- this identity is always true … … but, which causes which? Foreign Surplus = Foreign Savings It is fashionable to say that the savings causes the surplus … but in China’s case, this is doubtful.
Let’s focus on exports and GDP growth … Foreign Surplus = Foreign Savings Exports – Imports = GDP – Domestic Demand Does GDP growth push up exports? … … or, does demand for exports pull up GDP?
Current Account Imbalances for the U.S., China and Rest of the World
Where were the Surpluses? China is there too, but came to the party late …
The End Thank you AKeidel@keidel.us