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Detailed projections of coastal climate change until 2100 in N Europe

Detailed projections of coastal climate change until 2100 in N Europe. Hans von Storch, Katja Woth, Ralf Weisse, Burkhardt Rockel and Lidia Gaslikova GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht, Germany. ESSP conference, Beijing, 12. November 2006 Parallel 37: Sea level rise, vulnerability and impacts.

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Detailed projections of coastal climate change until 2100 in N Europe

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  1. Detailed projections of coastal climate change until 2100 in N Europe Hans von Storch, Katja Woth, Ralf Weisse, Burkhardt Rockel and Lidia Gaslikova GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht, Germany ESSP conference, Beijing, 12. November 2006 Parallel 37: Sea level rise, vulnerability and impacts

  2. Overview • Downscaling cascade to describe regional and local weather related variability n past decades. • Usage of the same cascade to construct consistent scenarios of possible future regional and local climate conditions. • Outlook

  3. Aber wie sieht es regional und lokal aus? Hydrodynamisches Modell der Nordseezirkulation Katja Woth Globales Geschehen Dynamisches Downscaling Pegel St. Pauli Empirisches Downscaling Zusammenarbeit u. a. mit BAW, BSH, ALR Husum, FSK Norderney, Hamburg Port Authority u.a.

  4. Extreme wind speeds over sea – simulated and recorded Beobachtet simuliert

  5. 1958-2002 Trends of annual percentiles of surge heights 50%iles Weisse & Plüß, 2005 1958-2002 90%iles

  6. Changing significant waveheight, 1958-2002 waves wind waves

  7. EU-Project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects) GCM RCMs • RegionalClimate Models: • CLM- REMO- HIRHAM- RCAO Global Climate Model (HadAM3) IPCC A2 SRES Scenario(1961-1990 / 2071-2100) today today Storm SurgeModel forthe North Sea: - TRIM 3D Impact model Impact scenarios scenario scenario global local scale

  8. A2 - CTL: changes in 99 % - iles of wind speed (6 hourly, DJF): west wind sector selected(247.5 to 292.5 deg) HIRHAM RCAO REMO5 CLM

  9. Changes of annual 99-percentile wave heights averaged across a series of simulations using different models and scenarios (in m). Colouring indicates areas where signals from all models and scenarios have the same sign; red-positive, blue-negative. Weisse und Grabemann, 2006

  10. Projections for the future / surge meteorological forcing: HIRHAM / RCA Differencesin inter-annual percentiles of surge/ A2 - CTL: RCA Differences in inter-annual percentiles of surge/ A2 - CTL: HIRHAM

  11. “Localisation”: From the coast into the estuary St Pauli

  12. Only the effect of changing weather conditions is considered, not the effect of water works such as dredging the shipping channel. Scenarios 2030, 2085

  13. Outlook • Similar challenges with assessing changes of other storms – tropical typhoons (SE Asia) and extra-tropical polar lows (N Atlantic) • “Detection and Attribution” • Dataset CoastDat • Storms and damage New efforts underway at GKSS

  14. The CoastDat-effort at the Institute for Coastal Research at GKSS (ICR@gkss) • Long-term, high-resolution reconstuctions (50 years) of present and recent developments of weather related phenomena in coastal regions as well as scenarios of future developments (100 years) • Northeast Atlantic and northern Europe • “Standard” model systems (“frozen”) • Assessment of changes in storms, ocean waves, storm surges, currents and regional transport of anthropogenic substances. • Data freely available. Applications • many authorities with responsibilities for different aspects of the German coasts • economic applications by engineering companies (off-shore wind potentials and risks) and shipbuilding company • Public information www.coastdat.de

  15. Damages and storms(Meeting of scientists and re-insurances; with Munich Re; Hohenkammer, May 2006) Consensus statement:„1. Climate change is real, and has a significant human component related to greenhouse gases.2. Direct economic losses of global disasters have increased inrecent decades with particularly large increases since the 1980s.8. Analyses of long-term records of disaster losses indicate that societal change and economic development are the principal factors responsible for the documented increasing losses to date.9. The vulnerability of communities to natural disasters is determined by their economic development and other social characteristics.10. There is evidence that changing patterns of extreme events are drivers for recent increases in global losses.13. In the near future the quantitative link (attribution) of trends in storm and flood losses to climate changes related to GHG emissions is unlikely to be answered unequivocally.“

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