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What is “risk”?

RAF Technical Overview. What is “risk”?. “a situation involving exposure to danger” (Oxford). Combination of: Likelihood of occurrence X Consequences of occurrence. NFPS Risk Analysis Framework. Common approach. Enhances understanding – nature of risks. Identifies critical factors.

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What is “risk”?

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  1. RAF Technical Overview What is “risk”? • “a situation involving exposure to danger” (Oxford) • Combination of: • Likelihood of occurrence X • Consequences of occurrence

  2. NFPS Risk Analysis Framework • Common approach • Enhances understanding – nature of risks • Identifies critical factors • Utilizes evidence • Addresses gaps and uncertainties • Promotes collaboration on shared risks • Results in transparent and accountable public policy and decisions in natural resource management

  3. Some concepts and terms… • Likelihood of occurrence • where? • when? • Consequences of occurrence • what?

  4. Some concepts and terms… • Transparency • “easy to see through, understand, or recognize; obvious” (Collins) • operating in such a way that it is easy for others to see what actions are taken, and why

  5. Some concepts and terms… • Ecosystem services • “benefits people obtain from ecosystems ” (Millenium Ecosystem Assessment 2005) • examples: • carbon sequestration • water and air purification • nutrient dispersal and cycling • industrial products • recreation • energy

  6. Some concepts and terms… • Triggers • Trigger - forest pest threat of some kind • pest • pathway/commodity • ecosystem

  7. Increasing numbers of pathways • Plant pests have always been spread via man’s activities • World Trade Organisation (WTO) has broken down trade barriers • Global trade dramatically increased during 20th Century

  8. Increasing numbers of pathways Source: WTO data http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch5en/conc5en/worldexports.html

  9. Any means that allow the entry or spread of a pest; could be… an imported commodity a means of transportation or storage packaging, or other articles associated with the commodity a natural means of spread (e.g., wind) A commodity is a plant or plant product being moved for trade or other purposes Pathway

  10. Examples • A request to import something that has not previously been imported from the proposed country of origin • A different end-use is proposed for a commodity that is already being imported • A new treatment is proposed for a commodity that is already being imported • An interception is made • Live pests are found on a previously unidentified pathway or commodity

  11. Pathway Description • The more you know about the pathway, the more accurate the PRA will be and the more effective or appropriate any subsequent phytosanitary measures will be • Ask questions • Consider all aspects of pathway • Get detailed descriptions • Understand it

  12. SBW RA case study - Triggers • Looming ESBW outbreak in eastern Quebec • losses experienced in the previous outbreak would have a significant negative impact on wood supply today • forestry landscape has changed since the last OB • limited protection options available • Needed a real life case for development of the framework

  13. MPB RA case study - Triggers

  14. SOD RA case study - Triggers

  15. Setting Objectives -- A common context for Pest RA – Adapted from Suter 1993 • Management goals • broad objectives • carry a social mandate • e.g. maintain healthy forest ecosystems • Assessment endpoints • translate mgmt goals into conceptual model • satisfy social objectives • e.g. maintain expected supply of timber; other values • Measurement endpoints • operational definitions • can be measured • e.g. black spruce growing stock; mature conifer habitat

  16. Setting Objectives Endpoints • biologically relevant • important to society • unambigously defined • operationally feasible • predictable and measurable • susceptible to hazard Suter 1993

  17. Setting Objectives Scope (of the RA) Objectives Resources Time

  18. Setting Objectives Objectives can be… • statements of desired outcomes of the RA • questions to be answered

  19. Setting Objectives Case studies’ experience… • Setting objectives

  20. Setting Objectives ESBW case study - Objectives • Consultation with MRNQ • Synthesis of research knowledge • Likely impacts of various stand types • Intervention options • Evaluate preventative measures • Others… • Evaluate SBW DSS as a tool • Contribute to dev of NFPS RA Framework

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