Addressing NYC School Overcrowding Crisis: Proposed Capital Plan Analysis

1. UnMet need for seats in New 2015-2019 PROPOSED capital planIncluding Citywide CLASS SIZE and OVERCROWDING data Leonie Haimson, Class Size Matters June 2014

2. School Utilization Rates at critical levels • Citywide, schools have become more overcrowded over last six years. More than 480,000 students citywide are in extremely overcrowded buildings. • Elementary schools avg. building utilization “target” rates at 97.4%; median at 102%. High schools are not far behind at 95.2%. • High ES rates in all boroughs, including D10 and D11 in the Bronx 108% and 105.6%, respectively. • In Queens, D24 (120.6%), D25 (109.7%), D26 (110%), D27 (106.1%), and D30 (107.3%) all extremely overcrowded. • At the MS level, D20 in Brooklyn, D24, and D25 in Queens have building utilization rates over 95%. • Queens high school buildings have avg. utilization rate of 110.7% and Staten Island high school buildings 103.2%. Data source: Blue Book target utilization rates 2012-2013

3. Average Utilization Rates City-Wide 2012-2013 Source: 2012-2013 DOE Blue Book

4. Proposed capital plan vs. needs for seats • Proposed capital plan has (at most) 38,754 seats – and this if Cuomo’s “Smart School” bond act is approved. (806 more seats funded only for design) • Plan admits real need of 49,245 (though doesn’t explain how this figure was derived). • DOE’s consultants project enrollment increases of 60,000-70,000 students by 2021 • At least 30,000 seats needed to alleviate current overcrowding for just those districts that average above 100%. • Conclusion: real need for seats at least 100,000.

5. Proposed capital plan vs. needs for seats part II • These figures do not capture overcrowding at neighborhood level, including schools with K waiting lists, or need to expand pre-K, reduce class size, restore cluster rooms, or provide space for charters as required in new state law. • Does not capture need to replace trailers with capacity of more than 10,890 seats. • Though DOE counts only 7,158 students attending class in TCUs, actual number is far higher & likely over 10,000. • Also, DOE utilization figures underestimate actual overcrowding according to most experts and Chancellor, who has appointed a “Blue Book” taskforce to improve them. • Revised utilization formula should be aligned to smaller classes, dedicated rooms for art, music, special education services, and more.

6. Class sizes have increased for six years in a row • Despite provisions in 2007 state law requiring NYC reduce class sizes, classes in K-3 in 2013-2014 largest since 1998; in grades 4-8 largest since 2002. • K-3 average class size was 24.9 (Gen Ed, inclusion & gifted classes) compared to 20.9 in 2007, increase of 19%. • In grades 4-8, the average class size was 26.8, compared to 25.1 in 2007 –increase of 6.8%. • HS “core” academic classes, class size average 26.7, up slightly since 2007.  (Yet DOE’s measure of HS class sizes is inaccurate and their methodology changes, so estimates cannot be relied upon.) • Averages do NOT tell the whole story – as more than 330,000 students were in classes of 30 or more in 2013-2014. • There were 40,268 kids in K-3 in classes of 30 or more in 2013-2014 – an increase of nearly 14% compared to the year before. • The number of teachers decreased by over 5000 between 2007-2010, according to the Mayor’s Management Report, despite rising enrollment.

10. Class sizes citywide have increased in grades K-3 by 19.1% since 2007 and are now far above Contracts for Excellence goals Data sources: DOE Class Size Reports 2006-2013, 2008 DOE Contracts for Excellence Approved Plan

11. Class sizes citywide in grades 4-8 have increased by 6.8% since 2007 and are now far above Contracts for Excellence goals Data sources: DOE Class Size Reports 2006-2013, 2008 DOE Contracts for Excellence Approved Plan

12. Class sizes city-wide have increased in core HS classes as well, by 2.3% since 2007, though the DOE data is unreliable* *DOE’s class size data is unreliable & their methodology for calculating HS averages have changed year to year Data sources: DOE Class Size Reports 2006-2013, 2008 DOE Contracts for Excellence Approved Plan

13. At least 30,000 seats currently needed just in districts averaging over 100% *These figures are the difference between capacity & enrollment in the organizational target # in 2012-2013 Blue Book Source: 2012-2013 DOE “Blue Book”

14. Manhattan Average Building Utilization Rates by District 2012-2013 Source: 2012-2013 DOE “Blue Book”

15. Bronx Average Building Utilization Rates by District 2012-2013 Source: 2012-2013 DOE “Blue Book”

16. Brooklyn Average Building Utilization Rates by District 2012-2013 Source: 2012-2013 DOE “Blue Book”

17. Queens Average Building Utilization Rates 2012-2013 by District Source: 2012-2013 DOE “Blue Book”

18. Staten Island Average Building Utilization Rates 2012-2013 Source: 2012-2013 DOE “Blue Book”

19. Enrollment projections suggest many MORE districts will require additional seats in future • The 2015-2019 capital plan has 31,754 seats plus 2,100 full-day pre-K seats and 4,900 seats for class size reduction, if bond issue passes. • When compared to the enrollment projections by Statistical Forecasting and Grier Partnership through 2021, many districts will require more seats than the Capital Plan has allotted. • Grier Partnership projects enrollment growth at 70,341, Statistical Forecasting at 60,230, and estimates from Housing Starts are 51,727. • The following slides have citywide & district-by-district for enrollment growth from SF, GP & housing start estimates, compared to new seats in the capital plan.

20. City-wide Enrollment Projections K-8 vs. New Seats in Capital Plan *Statistical Forecasting does not include D75 students; K-8 Seats in Capital Plan are categorized as Small PS and PS/IS and includes 4,900 seats for class size reduction if Bond issue passes. Source for Housing Starts: NYSCA Projected New Housing Starts 2012-2021, http://www.nycsca.org/Community/CapitalPlanManagementReportsData/Housing/2012-21HousingWebChart.pdf; Projected public school ratio, https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Education/Projected-Public-School-Ratio/n7ta-pz8k

21. City-wide Enrollment Projections HS vs. New Seats in Capital Plan *Statistical Forecasting does not include D75 students; HS Seats in Capital Plan are categorized as IS/HS and does not include seats for class size reduction Source for Housing Starts: NYSCA Projected New Housing Starts 2012-2021, http://www.nycsca.org/Community/CapitalPlanManagementReportsData/Housing/2012-21HousingWebChart.pdf; Projected public school ratio, https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Education/Projected-Public-School-Ratio/n7ta-pz8k

22. Unmet need in Queens HS especially acute • DOE’s utilization figures indicate a shortage of 7295 seats in Queens HS currently • These figures underestimate actual level of overcrowding, according to most principals. • DOE consultants project an increase in Queens high school enrollment of 12,567- 12,980 by 2021. • Yet only 2,802 Queens HS seats proposed in five-year plan, a shortage of more than 17,000 seats.

23. Kindergarten Waitlists in many neighborhoods

24. 2014 Kindergarten Wait Lists (Citywide) • According to DOE, the wait list for zoned Kindergarten spots in 2014 is smaller citywide than in 2013. • There were 1,242 zoned students on wait lists as of April 21, 2014. • 19 of the 32 school districts currently have at least one school with a waiting list. • There are 63 schools that have zoned wait lists. 20 are in Brooklyn, 17 in Queens, 11 in Manhattan, 11 in The Bronx, and 4 in Staten Island. • The number of zoned students on these wait lists and the methodology for determining waitlists has yet to be revealed – unclear if same as last year.

25. New charter provisions passed in state budget • Any charter co-located in a NYC school building cannot be evicted and has veto powers before they leave the building – even if they are expanding and squeezing out NYC public school students.  • This includes any charter co-location agreed to before 2014 – including the three Success charter schools approved right before Bloomberg left office. • Any new or charter school in NYC adding grade levels must be “provided access to facilities” w/in five months of asking for it. • If they don’t like the space offered by the city, they can appeal to the Commissioner King, who is a former charter school director and has never ruled against a charter school. • NO FISCAL IMPACT statement or analysis accompanying this bill. • In addition, the state will provide all charter schools with per-pupil funding increases, amounting to $500 over the next 3 years and provide them funding for pre-K.

26. Charter space provisions ONLY apply to NYC • Upstate legislators fought off making charters eligible for state facilities funds – which would have been better for NYC. • Yet legislators did not block these onerous provisions for NYC , where we have the most expensive real estate & the most overcrowded schools in the state. • If the DOE doesn’t offer charter schools free space, the city  must pay for a school’s rent in private space or give them an extra 20 percent over their operating aid every year going forward. • After the city spends $40 million per year on charter rent, the state will begin chipping in 60% of additional cost.

27. How many charters will there be entitled to free space? • We have 183 charters in NYC, 119 in co-located space. • 22 new charters are approved to open next year or the year after, all entitled to free space. • 52 additional charter schools left to approve until we reach the cap raised in 2010 – with legislative approval – all entitled to free space. • Any new or existing co-located charter can also be authorized to expand grade levels through HS and will be entitled to free space. • DOE will be paying $5.4 M in annual rent for four years for 3 Success Academy schools that only have 484 students next year – at a cost of $11,000 per student. • This doesn’t count the unknown renovation costs in these 3 schools, also paid for by the city.

28. Blue book data & Utilization formula inaccurate & underestimates actual level of overcrowding • Class sizes in grades 4-12 larger than current averages & far above goals in city’s C4E plan & will likely force class sizes upwards • Doesn’t require full complement of cluster rooms or special needs students to have dedicated spaces for their mandated services • Doesn’t properly account for students now housed in trailers in elementary and middle schools. • Doesn’t account for co-locations which subtract about 10% of total space and eat up classrooms with replicated administrative & cluster rooms. Small schools use space less efficiently • Instructional footprint shrank full size classroom only 500 sq. feet min., risking building code/safety violations at many schools as 20-35 sq feet per student required. • Special ed classrooms defined as only 240-499 sqft, thought State Ed guidelines call for 75 sqft per child with special needs; classrooms this small would allow only 3- 7 students.

29. Comparison of class sizes in Blue book compared to current averages & Contract for excellence goals *DOE reported HS class sizes unreliable

30. Some Recommendations • 38,000 seats in capital plan is too low, esp. given existing overcrowding, projected enrollment, pre-K expansion, class size reduction, new mandates to provide charter schools with space • Also very low as compared to Mayor’s plan to create or preserve 200,000 affordable housing units. • Council should expand the seats in five year capital plan. • Commission an independent analysis by City Comptroller, IBO or other agency. • Adopt reforms to planning process so that schools are built along with housing in future through mandatory inclusionary zoning, impact fees etc. • Over half of all states and 60% of large cities have impact fees, requiring developers to pay for costs of infrastructure improvements, including schools.