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Political Science 30: The Grammar of Hypotheses

Political Science 30: The Grammar of Hypotheses. Lecture Outline . How to spot a theory and a hypothesis. The grammar of a hypothesis Independent variables The dependent variable Values that variables take on Intervening variables Confounding variables.

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Political Science 30: The Grammar of Hypotheses

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  1. Political Science 30:The Grammar of Hypotheses

  2. Lecture Outline • How to spot a theory and a hypothesis. • The grammar of a hypothesis • Independent variables • The dependent variable • Values that variables take on • Intervening variables • Confounding variables

  3. How to spot a theory and a hypothesis (definitions) • A theory is a general statement about how the world works that specifies a causal mechanism. • A hypothesis derived from this theory makes a specific prediction that can be empirically verified. It predicts that one or more causal factors will produce a single effect.

  4. How to spot a theory and a hypothesis (for instance) • My theory is that people will be happy with their political system whenever their basic needs are fulfilled. • What are some testable hypotheses that spring forth from this theory?

  5. The grammar of a hypothesis • Multiple Independent Variable (IVs or Xs) IV #1 IV #2 IV #3 • Just One Dependent Variable (DV or Y) DV

  6. The grammar of a hypothesis • “Countries where citizens are healthy or wealthy will be less likely to experience successful revolutions.” • What are the independent and dependent variables?

  7. The grammar of a hypothesis • Independent variables: • Wealth, measured by 1980 per capita GDP • Health, measured by 1980 presence or absence of universal care system • Dependent variable: • Presence or absence of successful revolution since 1980 • What values can these variables take on?

  8. Variables and their Values • You can think of any variable as a question: • What is the average lifespan in a country? • The potential values that the variable can take on are possible answers to that question: • 45.9 years (Afghanistan) • 71.1 years (The Bahamas) • 50.2 years (Benin) • 80.7 years (Japan)

  9. Values that independent variables take on for different cases IV #1 Wealth. Per capita GDP takes on different values in different countries. • Haiti $586 • Cuba $3267 • Spain $18,356 • USA $39,678 IV #2 Health. Some countries have universal health care, some don’t. • Haiti, No • Cuba, Yes • Spain, Yes • USA, No

  10. Values that the dependent variable takes on for different cases • DV Revolution. Some countries had them since 1980, some haven’t. • Haiti, Yes • Cuba, No • Spain, No • USA, No

  11. An Intervening Variable • It is part of the causal path that links an independent variable to the dependent variable • For this hypothesis, it could be the average citizen’s stake in the status quo, measured by how much private property the average citizen owns Wealth Stakes Revolution Health

  12. A confounding variable • A confound: • causes changes in the dependent variable • is correlated with one of the independent variables • is “causally prior” to that independent variable. Chronologically or logically, it comes first. Wealth Prior Current Revolution Health Revolution

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