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Defense Intelligence & Infectious Disease Modeling Interest and Need

This research explores the importance of infectious disease modeling in defense intelligence for operational, force health protection, policy, crisis management, acquisition, and disease risk forecasting. It delves into the impact on U.S. Army wartime hospital admissions, conflict intensity, deployment probability, battle casualties, and new mission roles without preventive medicine countermeasures. The study highlights evolving defense strategies, health protection implications in unfamiliar environments, and multinational task force alignments. The modeling focus includes disease spread, outbreak conditions, and disease control nodes to enhance crisis management readiness on national, regional, and international levels.

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Defense Intelligence & Infectious Disease Modeling Interest and Need

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  1. Defense Intelligence & Infectious Disease Modeling Interest and Need James T. Kvach, Ph.D. Defense Intelligence Agency Armed Forces Medical Intelligence Center Ft. Detrick, Maryland

  2. Why the Interest & Need? • Operational • Force health protection • Policy • Crisis management • Acquisition • Forecasts

  3. Disease Risks -- Recurring Impact P E R C E N T U.S. ARMY HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS DURING WAR Responsible for 2 of 3 U.S. Wartime Hospital Admissions

  4. INTENSITY OF CONFLICT PROBABILITY OF DEPLOYMENT FREQUENCY OF BATTLE CASUALTIES PROBABILITY OF DNBI * MISSION REGIONAL WARFIGHTING MODERATE LOW HIGH HIGH COUNTERDRUG OPERATIONS HIGH LOW HIGH LOW PEACEKEEPING LOW LOW HIGH HIGH HUMANITARIAN NONE HIGH NONE HIGH New Roles and Missions *WITHOUT PREVENTIVE MEDICINE COUNTERMEASURES

  5. Civilian Health Care Status

  6. Civilian Health Care & Nation Building/Failure • How to advise? • Where can you • make a difference?

  7. Evolving Defense Strategy Health Protection Implications • Unfamiliar/Hostile Environments • Infectious Disease & Environmental Risks • Multinational Task Force Alignments • Medical Support Capabilities • Disease Prevalence • Reduced Military Health Services Footprint • Reliance on Host Nation Support • Food and Water • Medical Care/Support and Pharmaceuticals • Short- and Long-Term Health and Liability Concerns

  8. Modeling Focus • Disease spread • National • Regional • International • Conditions for outbreaks • Disease control nodes

  9. Defense Intelligence View Behavior Infectious Disease Individual Militarily Relevant Group Humanitarian Societal Economic

  10. Ideal Model • Country/disease neutral • Tailorable • Real time data • Predictive • Control nodes • Crisis management/analytical tool • National, regional, international • capable

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