John Rumble Sustainability Team Leader Forward Planning

1. Climate Change in Hertfordshire John RumbleSustainability Team LeaderForward Planning Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007

2. Global Warming Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007

3. Regional data on climate change UK Climate Impacts Programme climate change scenarios www.ukcip.org.uk Describes a range of variables: temperature, precipitation, sea level and climatic variability Low emissions and high emissions scenarios Up to 2100 (three time slices centred on 2020s, 2050s and 2080s) Climate Change Scenarios Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007

4. Climate Change is Unavoidable Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007

5. Is Man to Blame? Source: Peter Stott, UKCIP02 Scientific Report Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007

6. The Kyoto basketSix greenhouse gases & their GWPs Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007

7. Gas Carbon dioxide CO2 Methane CH4 Nitrous oxide N2O Important sources in the UK Fossil fuel combustion - transport, energy production, domestic emissions Agriculture, waste disposal, leakage from the gas distribution system, coal mining Agriculture (fertiliser application), biomass burning, coal combustion, and some industrial processes Important Sources of GHGs Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007

8. Projected Changes to Annual Average Temperature in UK Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007

9. Winter Summer Projected Changes to Seasonal Average Precipitation in UK Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007

10. E.g. temperature changes in the East of England Change in average annual temperature Source: UKCIP02 Climate Change Scenarios data Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007

11. East of England Study www.sustainability-east.com Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007

12. Lack of water resources Pressure for development Coastal/fluvial/flash flooding Subsidence Higher annual temperatures Reduced soil moisture levels Sea level rise Coastal erosion Extreme events Issues for The East of England Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007

13. Climate Change in Herts • Hotter drier summers; milder wetter winters • Extreme high temperatures more frequent • Extreme winter precipitation more frequent • Significant decrease in soil moisture content • Increase in thermal growing season Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007

14. 1x1km National Datasets Traffic Population EUETS (Pollution Inventory) Employment Agriculture Gas Supply Electricity Supply Point Sources (Refineries) (Power Stations) (Coke Production) Industrial/Institutional Combustion Cement Plant Other Processes UK GHG Inventory Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007

15. Commissioned by Defra and carried out by Netcen to produce a set of experimental statistics of carbon dioxide emissions for local authority (NUTS4) and Government Office Region (NUTS1) areas for the year 2003 now updated for 2004 Makes use of DTI local gas and electricity consumption data (electricity data are experimental) DTI’s commitment to “collect and make available data on the pattern of energy use in local areas, to enable local authorities and regional bodies to target activity more effectively” Study provided nationally consistent carbon dioxide emission estimates at local authority and regional level. The data represent the primary emissions from the consumption of fuel or other process activities that emit CO2plus the emissions relevant to the production of consumed electricity. Local Authority Defra/DTI CO2 Inventory Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007

16. Domestic CO2 emissions by Local Authority for 2003 (in kt CO2/km2) CO2 emissions by Local Authority per capita in 2003 (in kt CO2) Note: Emission intensity (per unit area) rather than total emission Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007

17. Emission by Source Domestic Transport Industrial and Commercial Combustion Agriculture Industrial Production Processes Refineries Power Stations Coke Production Emissions by Energy End User Domestic Transport Industrial and Commercial Combustion Agriculture Industrial Production Processes Refineries Power Stations Coke Production 2006 local CO2 Emissions Basis Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007

18. Addressing Everyday use and CO2 Emissions Commercial Residential Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007

19. We all contribute to Climate Change Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007

20. The Nottingham Declaration is a voluntary pledge to address the issues of climate change. It represents a high-level, broad statement of commitment that any council can make to its own community. Over 200 Councils now signed up The Nottingham Declaration Action Pack was released July 2006 Nottingham Declaration on Climate Change Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007

21. Mitigationof climate change slowing down global warming by reducing greenhouse gas emissions Adaptationto climate change responding to the projected impacts of climate change The Two Responses to Climate Change Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007

22. Adaptation Mitigation Flood defences Insulation CHP Water efficiency Efficient cooling for buildings Emissions trading Stronger foundations Solar energy Efficient cooling for transport Reduction in flying Heatwave plans Hydrogen fuel cells Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007

23. Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007

24. The structure of NDAP supports authority-wide climate action plans, but it is designed for flexibility You can enter at different points in the process, building on any existing work, or picking the ‘low-hanging fruit’ – issues of particular concern for your authority Using the Nottingham Declaration Action Pack Planning and Partnership Panel – 9 March 2007