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Demographics & Trends I. MKT 750 Dr. West. Agenda. Looking back… How can Target leverage its brand? Fixing behavioral segmentation Snapshot of Demographic Trends Fads versus Trends Examples of each How to tell them apart? How can we identify trends?. Food for thought.
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Demographics & Trends I MKT 750 Dr. West
Agenda • Looking back… • How can Target leverage its brand? • Fixing behavioral segmentation • Snapshot of Demographic Trends • Fads versus Trends • Examples of each • How to tell them apart? • How can we identify trends?
Food for thought • Who are ‘s current and potential customers? (age, income, lifestyle) • Why do they prefer to its competitors? • How well is positioned relative to its competitors? • How can leverage its brand?
Behavioral Segmentation: • “Heavy versus Light” Users – “80/20 rule” Percent of Consumers (20%) (32%) (88%) (48%) (95%) Heavy Users: Efficiency/profit Caution: Majority Fallacy
Forecasting Requires: • Understanding the past • Monitoring demographic shifts • Anticipating trends
Snapshot of Demographic Trends • The US population more than tripled from 76 million in 1900 to 281 million in 2000. • Growth of 32.7 million in the 1990s represents the largest numerical increase in any decade in history
Implications? • Opportunities: • Sun City / Retirement Communities • Increasing property values • Threats • Health care and insurance problems in Florida • Power Shortages in California
Snapshot of Demographic Trends • The US population grew increasingly metropolitan, from 28 percent in 1910 to 80 percent in 2000. • The suburbs, rather than central cities accounted for most of the growth • By 2000 half of the population lived in suburban areas.
Implications? • Opportunities • Cooper MINI (BMW) • Hybrid cars
Snapshot of Demographic Trends • Less developed countries represent 80.5 percent of the global population, this is up from 68 percent in 1950.
Implications? • Opportunities: • New markets • Threats • Lacking infrastructure
U.S.289,991,634 World6,267,017,68512:24 EST Jan 07, 2003 Snapshot of Demographic Trends • National Trends & Projections • Growth rate from 1990-2000 was 7.1% and is expected to increase by 50% by 2050. • Global Trends & Projections • World population increase, gradually slowing. Expected to hit 9 billion by 2050.
Snapshot of Demographic Trends • In 1900 half of the US population was less than 22.9 years old. • By 2000, half of the population was more than 35.3 years old. • The population age 65 and over increased tenfold, from 3.1 million in 1900 to 35 million in 2000.
Snapshot of Demographic Trends • National Trends & Projections • The “mature” segment of the population will increase dramatically. 65+ segment will increase from 12.7% to 23.5% of the pop. 85+ segment will increase from 1% to 5.9% of the pop. Projected Growth (Millions)
Implications? • Opportunities • Pharmaceutical products (i.e. Viagra & Botok) • Travel • Threats • Health care & insurance
Snapshot of Demographic Trends • In 1900, 1 out of 8 Americans was not classified as white/not-Hispanic. • At the of the century, the ratio was 1 out of 4. • From 1980 to 2000, the Hispanic population more than doubled • By 2000, the percentage of minority populations ranged from 16 percent for people over age 65 and 39 percent for those under age 25.
Snapshot of Demographic Trends • National Trends & Projections
Snapshot of Demographic Trends • In 1900, the most common household contained seven or more people. • Average household size declined from 4.60 in 1900 to 2.59 in 2000, or by 44 percent.
Snapshot of Demographic Trends • Households and Families • The share of “family” households fell from 81percent in 1970 to 71percent in 1990 and has remained at that level. • The number of single parents increased from 3.8 million in 1970 to 11.7 million in 1996.
Snapshot of Demographic Trends • Marital Status and Living Arrangements
Additional Trends • Two income families • Higher education levels • More “mobile” • What are the implications?
Critical Questions for Identifying Lifestyle Trends: • Does it fit with lifestyle changes? • What benefits does it provide? • Can it be personalized? • Who has adopted it?
Forecasting the Future • Requires: • Understanding the past • Monitoring demographic shifts • Anticipating trends • Faith Popcorn's Website • Yankelovich Monitor
Assignment • Read Chapter 11 • Memo 1 due on Wednesday • Team Research Proposal Due by Friday