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National Weather Service February 5-6, 2008 Tornado Outbreak Performance – Warning Systems Kenneth E. Graham Chief Meteorological Services Division. Busy 2008. Greensburg, KS. Super Tuesday. In terms of loss, the numbers are devastating: 63 confirmed tornadoes 11 killer tornadoes
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National Weather Service February 5-6, 2008 Tornado Outbreak Performance – Warning Systems Kenneth E. Graham Chief Meteorological Services Division
Busy 2008 Greensburg, KS
Super Tuesday • In terms of loss, the numbers are devastating: • 63 confirmed tornadoes • 11 killer tornadoes • 5 very violent EF 4 tornadoes with more than 166 mph winds • 57 people killed and more than 350 injured in five states • Extensive damage across the affected areas • Worst outbreak in over 20 years • Other Impacts to the Nation • Economic loss due to damage • Large storm that included winter weather
Super Tuesday Even with advanced notice of the event and individual severe storms, there was still a large loss of life
Communication Prior to Outbreak SPC Day 6Severe Thunderstorm Outlook Issued: Jan. 30, 2008 Valid: Feb 5-6, 2008 Tornado, Wind, Hail Reports NWS began publicizing the potential for severe weather 6 days in advance of the outbreak.
Communication Prior to Outbreak Hatched area depicts the potential for significant EF2-EF5 tornadoes. Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook Issued: Sun (2am), Feb 3. Valid: Feb 5-6 Day 1TornadoProbability Issued and Valid Tue, Feb 5 NWS forecasts were further refined leading up to February 5, 2008
Communication Prior to Outbreak • NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) advertised the potential for severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes, in their Hazardous Weather Outlooks (HWOs) as early as Thurs., January 31, 2008. • Subsequent HWOs throughout the weekend refined the timing and magnitude of the threat. • WFOs used conference calls, Go-To Meeting, email/text alerts, and graphical HWOs to provide awareness. • WFOs used IEM Chat and 800MHz to communicate with media and emergency manager partners.
Storm Based Warnings Previously
Jackson, TN: Tornado through Union University at 7:15pm damaging several buildings, including two women’s dorms. 51 people injured, 9 seriously Tornado warning issued at 6:36pm (39 min lead time) Westmoreland, Castilian Springs, TN: Long track supercell tornadoes caused widespread damage, and a massive gas explosion occurred at Columbia Gulf Transmission Pipeline. 22 fatalities were reported in three counties (Sumner, Trousdale, Macon) Tornado warning issued at 9:41pm and expanded at 10:08pm (26 min lead time at gas plant, average 12 min lead time for 3 counties) Clinton, AR: Tornado destroyed 27 homes and several businesses Emergency management reports 3 deaths/ 70 injuries Tornado warning issued at 5:23pm (19 min lead time) Initial Findings These particular events received extensive media coverage:
Initial Findings • Local WFO experts and national assessment teams have surveyed the impacted areas, talked to victims, local EMs, and media. • Preliminary findings show people knew they were in danger but thought they were in a safe place. • The event was well advertised • It was a night/evening event and people were in their homes • With an EF 4 or higher tornado, the best way to survive is to be underground • Most didn’t have tornado shelters or bunkers to seek shelter
Initial Findings • Performance: • 217 tornado warnings over 2 day period with accuracy of 87% • Average lead time for entire event was 16 minutes • Average lead time for the killer tornadoes was 20 minutes • Lead time for tornado that struck women’s dorm at Union University in TN was 39 minutes • Lead time for tornado that struck gas plant in TN was 26 minutes
Arkansas A license plate was driven into a tree by an EF4 tornado in Izard Co. on Feb 5. The plate has been modified for privacy.
Alabama Jackson County Lawrence/Morgan County
Future Improvements • Improving Services for Future: • Radar Advancements • Super Resolution Doppler Radar • Dual-Polarization Radars • Phased Array Radar • Warning Dissemination • Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) • Cell Phone • Reverse 911 • In Car Information • GIS • Storm Decision Aids • Uncertainty Communication
Future Improvements PAR PAR KTLX KTLX Advancements In Radar Technology Phased Array compared to WSR-88D
Future Improvements • Improved Social Science Integration • WAS*IS • Strong Emergency Management Ties • Target Those At Risk • Continue Strong Partnerships Related to NOAA Weather Radio • Transmitters • Receivers • Weather Radio Improvement Project (WRIP)
Continue to Grow Our All Hazards Partnership… …Incident Support
Kenneth.Graham@noaa.gov 301-713-1858 x105