SURVEY RESEARCH

1. SURVEY RESEARCH Topic #1 [Covered in considerable detail in Weisberg et al. textbook]

2. Survey Research • Quantitative study of large human populations using these basic research operations: • define the population to be studied; • select a representative sample; • measure (by means of interview questions) characteristics of the respondents in the sample; • tabulate, crosstabulate, and otherwise analyze the sample data (using SPSS, etc.) to produce various sample statistics; and • make inferences from sample statistics to population parameters of interest.

3. Types of Surveys • Fake/spurious/recreational polls and surveys: • straw/call-in/write-in or web based polls • propaganda polls (asking “biased” questions) sponsored by advocacy or interest groups • political persuasion disguised as polling (“push polls”) • commercial selling disguised as polling

4. Types of Surveys (cont.) • Legitimate commercial surveys • Public (results released to the public) • syndicated polls (starting in late 1930s) • Gallup, Roper, Harris, etc. • media polls (starting in the 1960s) • pre-election tracking polls • exit polls • Proprietary (contract research; results not publicly released) • market research (starting in 1920s) • political consulting/polling for candidates, parties, and advocacy and interest groups (starting in the 1950s)

5. Types of Surveys (cont.) • Non-commercial surveys • Government (“statistical”) survey research • U.S. Census • Current Population Survey (CPS) • Rotating panel survey of ~60,000 households • Source of labor force size and unemployment data • Voter registration and turnout (but not vote choices and opinions) • Annual Survey of Social Security and Medicare Beneficiaries • National Crime Victimization Survey

6. Types of Surveys (cont.) • Non-commercial surveys (cont.) • Academic/scholarly/scientific surveys • Voting studies (surveys vs. election data) • “Columbia” (sociological) studies (1940s) • local samples • extended panel surveys • emphasizing groups affiliations • Index of Political Disposition (IPP)

7. Types of Surveys (cont.) • Voting studies (cont.) • “Michigan” (political/social psychological) studies • National samples • Limited (pre- and post-election) panels • Occasional extended panels (four years) • Emphasize opinions, attitudes, and orientation over group affiliations • Party Identification (Student Survey Q1 & Q2) • American National Election Studies (ANES) • Social Science Data Archives  • Interuniversity Consortium for Social and Political Research (ICPSR) at University of Michigan • European Consortium for Political Research at University of Essex (UK)

8. IBM Punch Card

9. Other Major (Ongoing) Surveys • General Social Survey (GSS), NORC (University of Chicago) • Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), University of Michigan SRC • Citizen Participation surveys (Sidney Verba and others) • Long-Term Political Socialization Panel Study • Parent-child pairs interviewed in 1965, 1973, 1982, and 1997 • British, Canadian, German, etc., Election Studies

10. What Do (Political) Surveys (Purport to) Measure? • voting intentions (and likelihood of voting) • attitudes/opinions/preferences • specific issues • general orientations • party ID, ideological placement, political trust/cynicism • beliefs/perceptions/predictions/salience • information/knowledge • reported behavior • did you vote? for whom? contribute $? attend meeting? • job-seeking activity • TV watching • crime victimization • demographics

11. Preview of Data Collection Methods • Self-administered [“paper and pencil” or web-based] questionnaires • Student Survey • SCEQ • Exit polls • Telephone interviews • Tracking polls • Personal interviews • ANES • CPS, GSS, PSID, etc. • Closed-Form vs. Open-Ended Questions • Multiple-choice test vs. “blue book” test • SCEQ “scan sheets” vs. “blue sheets”

12. Closed-Form Questions (cont.) • Multiple-choice format: may be • self-administered, • telephone, or • personal (ANES) Some people don't pay much attention to political campaigns. How about you? Would you say that you have been VERY MUCH interested, SOMEWHAT interested or NOT MUCH interested in the political campaigns so far this year? 1. Very much interested 3. Somewhat interested 5. Not much interested 8. Don't know 9. Refused 0. NA

13. Closed-Form Questions (cont.) Agree / Disagree Format (ANES) “This country would have many fewer problems if there were more emphasis on traditional family ties.” Do you AGREE STRONGLY, AGREE SOMEWHAT, NEITHER AGREE NOR DISAGREE, DISAGREE SOMEWHAT, or DISAGREE STRONGLY with this statement? 1. Agree strongly 2. Agree somewhat 3. Neither agree nor disagree 4. Disagree somewhat 5. Disagree strongly 8. Don't know 9. Refused 0. NA

14. Closed-form Questions (cont.) Rating Scale Format (ANES) Some people think the governmentshould provide fewer services even in areas such as health and education in order to reduce spending. Suppose these people are at one end of a scale, at point 1. Other people feel it is important for the government to provide many more services even if it means an increase in spending. Suppose these people are at the other end, at point 7. And, of course, some other people have opinions somewhere in between, at points 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6. Where would you place YOURSELF on this scale, or haven't you thought much about this? 01. Govt should provide many fewer services 02. 03. 04. 05. 06. 07. Govt should provide many more services 80. Haven't thought much about this 88. Don't know 89. Refused 00. NA

15. Closed-form Questions (cont.) Rating Scale Format (cont.) Where would you place GEORGE W. BUSH on this issue? DO NOT PROBE DK 1. Government should provide many fewer services 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Government should provide many more services 8. Don't know 9. Refused 0. NA Note: Randomize order of administration for Pres candidates

16. Thermometer Scale Please look at page 2 of the booklet. [See Weisberg et al., p. 80] I'd like to get your feelings toward some of our political leaders and other people who are in the news these days. I'll read the name of a person and I'd like you to rate that person using something we call the feeling thermometer. Ratings between 50 degrees and 100 degrees mean that you feel favorable and warm toward the person. Ratings between 0 degrees and 50 degrees mean that you don't feel favorable toward the person and that you don't care too much for that person. You would rate the person at the 50 degree mark if you don't feel particularly warm or cold toward the person. If we come to a person whose name you don't recognize, you don't need to rate that person. Just tell me and we'll move on to the next one.

17. Closed-form Questions (cont.) Indices (composite measures) Trust in government (ANES) Index of respondent's trust in government, built from responses to the following questions: (1) How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right? (2) Do you think that people in government waste a lot of the money we pay in taxes, waste some of it, or don't waste very much of it? (3) Would you say the government is pretty much run by a few big interests looking out for themselves or that it is run for the benefit of all the people? (4) Do you think that quite a few of the people running the government are crooked or that not very many of them are? Those who rank low on this index were more likely to select the distrusting position for each of these items. 1 [Low] 2 3 4 5 [High] 9 [NA]

18. Experimenting with Closed-Form Questions (2004 ANES) IF R SELECTED FOR STANDARD VERSION: In talking to people about elections, we often find that a lot of people were not able to vote because they weren't registered, they were sick, or they just didn't have time. How about you--did you vote in the elections this November? 1. Yes, voted 5. No, didn't vote 8. Don't know 9. Refused 0. NA IF R SELECTED FOR EXPERIMENTAL VERSION: In talking to people about elections, we often find that a lot of people were not able to vote because they weren't registered, they were sick, or they just didn't have time. Which of the following statements best describes you: 1. I did not vote (in the election this November). 2. I thought about voting this time, but didn't. 3. I usually vote, but didn't this time. 4. I am sure I voted 8. Don't know 9. Refused 0. NA

19. Closed-Form Questions (cont.) • Closed-form questions produce pre-coded data. • This is a major advantage, • in same way that multiple-choice tests [vs. essay exams] can be quickly and reliably scored. • Researchers can move quickly to tabulation and analysis. • Student Survey (and SCEQ) answer sheets can be sent directly for scanning, producing an electronic data file. • See next slide  • ANES (and other personal) interview sheets must be transcribed and then entered into electronic format (e.g., Excel spreadsheet or SPSS Data Editor screen) to create an electronic file.

20. For example, 2009 Student Survey Data

21. Open-Ended Questions ANES: Party Likes/Dislikes I'd like to ask you what you think are the good and bad points about the two NATIONAL PARTIES. [Note: Randomize order of administration for parties] Is there anything in particular that you LIKE about the Democratic party? IF R SAYS THERE IS SOMETHING R LIKES ABOUT DEMOCRATIC PARTY: (What is that?) PROBE: ANYTHING ELSE YOU LIKE ABOUT THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY? UNTIL R SAYS NO. Is there anything in particular that you DON'T LIKE about the Democratic party? Etc. Data: Number of responses Balance of positive vs. negative responses Content of responses

22. Data must be coded for quantitative analysis Is there anything in particular that you LIKE/DISLIKE about the Democratic/Republican party? 0101 Traditional Democratic voter: always been a Democrat; just a Democrat; never been a Republican; just couldn't vote Republican 0102 Traditional Republican voter: always been a Republican; just a Republican; never been a Democrat; just couldn't vote Democratic 0111 Positive, personal, affective terms applied to party--good/nice people; patriotic; etc. 0112 Negative, personal, affective terms applied to party--bad/lazy people; lack of patriotism; etc. 0121 Can trust them; they keep their promises; you know where they stand 0122 Can't trust them; they break their promises; you don't know where they stand 0131 Party is well-organized, sticks together, is united; members are disciplined; votes party line 0132 Party is poorly-organized/really two parties/divided/factionalized; members not disciplined; doesn't vote party line 0133 Party is (more) representative/good cross-section of the country; encompasses a wider variety of views/people; is more at the center of the country's views ETC

23. From SETUPS Codebook: Handout #1B in Course Pack or from Course Website V30 MOST IMPORTANT NATIONAL PROBLEM “What do you think is the single most important problem facing this country?” (Responses have been categorized into the five groups listed below.) 1 Economy 2 Foreign affairs 3 Social welfare 4 Crime, public order 5 Other 9 NA • In the actual ANES survey, this is an open-ended question with hundreds of code categories. • Data from such open-ended questions usually is not available until long after data from closed form questions is available. • Problem with comparable closed-form questions 

24. 2004 EXIT POLL Similar closed-form questions can have serious problems. Was 2004 election “all about values,” as the media claimed? Exit Poll Question E Taxes 5% Education 4% Iraq 15% Terrorism 19% Economy/Jobs 20% Moral values 22% Health care 8% Omit 7%

25. 2000 EXIT POLL Question D World Affairs 12% Med/Rx 7% Health Care 8% Econ/Jobs 18% Taxes 14% Education 14% Soc Security 14% Omit 13%

26. Question Design • See Weisberg et al., Chapter 4 • Question wording can be blatantly biased [“pushing” respondent to a preferred responses, as in propaganda polls] • Do you favor murdering innocent babies in the womb? • Should government officials have the power to interfere with women’s personal decisions?

27. Question Design • Even without manifest bias, phrasing can hugely affect the distribution of responses, especially when many respondents are ambivalent about the issue. • Do you believe that the U.S. should withdraw from South Vietnam? • Do you believe that the U.S. should withdraw from South Vietnam and allow the Vietnamese to settle things among themselves? • Do you believe that the U.S. should withdraw from South Vietnam, even if this means that the Viet Cong and North Vietnamese [or “the Communists”] take over? • If the full House votes to impeach Bill Clinton, then do you think it would be better for the county if Bill Clinton resigned from office, or not? • Better to resign: 60% • If the full House votes to send impeachment articles to the Senate for a trial, then do you think it would be better for the county if Bill Clinton resigned from office, or not? • Better to resign: 43%

28. Question Design (cont.) Unbalanced vs. balanced format Should ILLEGAL immigrants be prosecuted and deported for being in the U.S. illegally, or shouldn't they? Should be deported 69% Should not be deported 24% Unsure 7% If you had to choose, what do you think should happen to most illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the United States for at least two years? They should be given a chance to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status. OR, They should be deported back to their native country. Chance to keep jobs etc. 62% Deported 33% Unsure 5% CBS News/New York Times Poll. May 18-23, 2007

29. Question Design (cont.) • Unbalanced vs. balanced format • ANES through 1960: “If cities and towns around the country need help to build more schools, the government in Washington ought to give them the money they need. Do you have an opinion on this or not?” • ANES from 1964 onwards: “Some people think that the government in Washington should help towns and cities provide education for grade and high school children; others think that this should be handled by states and local communities. Have you been interested enough in this to favor one side over the other?” • Also recall “government services” question.

30. Question Design (cont.) • Ambiguity (see Weisberg, p. 85) • “How many public officials do you think are a little bit dishonest --- most, some, a few, or none?” [ANES, earlier version] • Many respondents answered “few or none,” but evidently because they though some or most public officials were a whole lot dishonest. • “Do you think that that quite a few people running the government are crooked, not very many are, or do you think hardly any of them are?” [ANES, current version]

31. Question Design (cont.) Might the Holocaust Have Never Happened? • Asked in a “wrong” [confusing] way (November 1992)Question: "Does it seem possible or does it seem impossible to you that the Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened?" Possible it never happened 22% Impossible it never happened 65% DK 12% • Asked in a “right” [less confusing way] way (March 1994)Question: "Does it seem possible to you that the Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened, or do you feel certain that it happened?" Possible it never happened 1% Certain it happened 91% DK 8% Source: Surveys by the Roper Organization, reported in Public Perspective

32. Question Design (cont.) • Closed-form option order (cf. ballot order) • Which candidate did you prefer for the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination? (1) Howard Dean (2) John Edwards (3) Richard Gephardt (4) John Kerry (5) Other candidate; don’t know; no preference • Which candidate did you prefer for the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination? (1) John Kerry (2) Richard Gephardt (3) John Edwards (4) Howard Dean (5) Other candidate; don’t know; no preference

33. Question Design (cont.) • Response bias • Political Efficacy Index Index of respondent's sense of “political efficacy,” built from responses to the following questions: • Do you agree or disagree with the statement, "People like me don't have any say about what the government does"? • Do you agree or disagree with the statement, "I don't think public officials care much what people like me think"? • Do you agree or disagree with the statement, "Sometimes politics and government seem so complicated that a person like me can't really understand what's going on"? • Do all the people who “agree” with all these statements really have a low sense of political efficacy, or are some of them just “agreeable” (i.e., tend to say they agree with any statement read to them)?

34. Questionnaire Design • These considerations point to the importance of pre-testing, survey experiments, and pilot studies: • Advantage of using standard questions (e.g., POLI Student Surveys) • How long will survey take? • Question order can affect the distribution of responses to questions (issue preference and Presidential approval in 1984). • Question context (i.e., the immediately preceding questions) can affect distribution of responses (e.g., Q4 in PS #1B). • Early questions should reassure the respondent as to the legitimate and non-threatening nature of the questionnaire. • “Controversial” questions should come last. • What do you think is the most “controversial” standard question? • Length of questionnaire.

35. Survey Data Collection Methods • Weisberg et.al., Chapter 5 • Self-administered questionnaires (written [or web-based]) • Telephone Surveys (entirely oral) • Personal interviewing (face-to-face and almost entirely oral)

36. Self-Administered Questionnaires • Varied settings • controlled (student survey, SCEQ, exit polls) • distributed and returned later • Mailed, completed (by whom?), and returned by mail • Characteristics • cheap • low response/completion rate (if returned later) • probably closed form questions only • short questionnaire only • literacy problems

37. Telephone Surveys • Increasingly common (especially for pre-election tracking polls; even academic surveys now use this method more than in the past) • Characteristics • fast and cheap • computerized sampling (random digit dialing) • computer-assisted interviewing • interviews are monitored by supervisors • limited to simple questions and short questionnaires • Problems: • call-back procedures (if no answer) • diffusion of telephones • cell phones

38. Personal Interviewing • The “gold standard” in scientific surveys, used by • ANES • General Social Survey • Current Population Survey • and most on-going high quality surveys • Setting • Preliminary letter • Usually in respondent’s home at convenient time

39. Personal Interviewing (cont.) • Characteristics • Expensive • Labor intensive • Interviews are unmonitored • Need semi-professional interviewers (almost always women) • Interviewers must be geographically distributed (for national surveys) • Flexible • Allows more complicated questions • Allows branching questions • Allows open-ended questions • Allows (relatively) long questionnaire

40. Data Tabulation and Analysis (Preview) • Coding of responses to open-ended questions • Data entry and verification • Cross-sectional analysis • Tabulation/frequency distributions • Subgroup differences • Other relationships (crosstabulations) • Causal relationships (control variables) • Longitudinal analysis • Cumulated surveys (ANES, Student Survey) • Panel surveys (some in ANES) • Primary vs. secondary analysis of survey data

41. Sampling Methods • A sample is a [usually small] subset of some larger population. • A representative sample is a cross-section of (has the same distribution of characteristics as) the larger population from which it is drawn. • But how can you know that a sample is representative? After all, you usually don’t know the characteristics of the larger population. (If you know all about the larger population, you wouldn’t need to conduct a survey). • You can make some demographic and other checks, • but mainly, you need to use proper sampling methodology, namely, random or probability sampling.

42. Some “Bad” Sampling Methods That Don’t Produce Representative Samples • Self-selected/voluntary samples: • call-in polls • American Idol • after TV debates, etc. • write-in samples • Ann Landers once asked her readers, “If you had to do it over again, would you have children?” She received nearly 10,000 responses, almost 70% saying “NO!” • Subsequently, a “scientific” survey (random sample of size = 1373) asked the same question and 91% responded “Yes.”

43. “Bad” Sampling Methods (cont.) • Haphazard/convenience sampling • POLI 300 Student Survey • Literary Digest Presidential election polls, 1920-1936 • Interviewer selected samples (go to main street, shopping mall, bus station, etc.) • Selection bias • availability bias • interviewer bias • Quota sampling

44. The “Good” Sampling Method • Random or Probability Sampling • leave it to chance who appears in the sample • Selection Bias: • Number of children vs. number of siblings • Over the past thirty years the average American women has about 2.0 children. • But mothers of POLI 300 in an earlier students had about 2.85 children. • “Class Size Paradox” See  • Statistician Abraham Wald & RAF Bomber Command • Where should extra armor be placed on bombers? • On to the Handout #2

45. The “Class Size Paradox”