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Probability

Probability. Hydrologic data series. Complete series Use all of the data. Hydrologic data series. 2. Partial duration series Use data above or below a base value. For example, Annual exceedance series Choose base such that # of events = # of years. Hydrologic data series.

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Probability

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  1. Probability

  2. Hydrologic data series • Complete series • Use all of the data.

  3. Hydrologic data series 2. Partial duration series Use data above or below a base value. For example, Annual exceedance series Choose base such that # of events = # of years

  4. Hydrologic data series 3. Extreme value series Use maximum or minimum value for each year Which is better—annual maximum or annual exceedance?

  5. Frequency analysis: empirical method • Construct frequency curve (CDF, essentially) from the given data. • Rank the data. • Compute plotting position: where m = rank n = # values

  6. Frequency analysis: empirical method

  7. Frequency analysis: empirical method

  8. Extreme value Type I PDF Useful for determining return period of extreme events

  9. Log-Pearson Type III PDF Allows for variable skewness

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