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Storm-based Warnings

Storm-based Warnings. Storm-based Warnings. NWS Partner’s Meeting January 18, 2007 John Ferree NOAA’s National Weather Service. From County-Based Warnings to Storm-Based Warnings. More specific Increased clarity Supports new dissemination technology.

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Storm-based Warnings

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  1. Storm-based Warnings Storm-based Warnings NWS Partner’s Meeting January 18, 2007 John Ferree NOAA’s National Weather Service

  2. From County-Based Warnings to Storm-Based Warnings • More specific • Increased clarity • Supports newdissemination technology Three simultaneous tornadoes within line of severe thunderstorms County-Based Tornado Warnings 8 Counties under warning Almost 1 million people warned Storm-Based Tornado Warnings 70% less area covered ~600,000 fewer people warned

  3. Effective Storm-Based Warnings Can Avoid Unnecessary Warning of Population Centers “Storm-based warnings would save the public a minimum of $100 million dollars a year in reduction of the cost of sheltering” - Dr. Dan Sutter Professor of Economics Most of the Dallas/Fort Worth metropolitan area is correctly omitted from this Storm-Based tornado warning. New siren system selectively activated.

  4. An Extreme Example ofFalsely Alarmed Area • Severe Thunderstorm Warning for San Bernardino and Riverside Counties CA • Warning area = State of IL • Actual area threatened = Small county in IL

  5. Screen capture of Brian Busby at the ABC affiliate in Kansas City, MO. WFO Kansas City/Pleasant Hill issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning (blue) then upgraded to a Tornado Warning (red). Graphic Disseminationof Storm-Based Warnings

  6. Digital Emergency Alert System (DEAS) Will Improve Direct Dissemination • Any digital device • Digital TV • Satellite Radio • Internet • Cell Phone • PDA • Geo-located • Text, Audio, Video

  7. ILX Bond Fayette Madison Clay STL Marion Clinton St. Clair Wayne Washington Issued by STL Jefferson Hamilton Perry Randolph PAH Franklin Jackson Saline Williamson Challenges for SB WarningsCounty Warning Area Boundaries St. Louis CWA Paducah CWA Lincoln CWA

  8. Issued by PAH Challenges for SB WarningsCounty Warning Area Boundaries ILX Bond Fayette Madison Clay STL St. Louis CWA Marion Clinton Paducah CWA St. Clair Wayne Washington Issued by STL Jefferson Lincoln CWA Hamilton Perry Randolph PAH Franklin Jackson Saline Williamson

  9. Multiple Warnings in One County/Parish • Issue for text, radio, TV crawls • Add reference to other valid warnings • Include counties with directional delimiters? • Summary severe weather statements? Bond Fayette Madison Marion Clinton SVR until 3:45PM St. Clair Washington Jefferson TOR until 3:30PM Perry Randolph Franklin Jackson Williamson

  10. Challenges for SB WarningsText /Audio Dissemination • Already use directional delimiters • “Tornado Warning for Southern Ford County” • Additional cities, towns, landmarks, highway mile markers

  11. AT 425 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AKRON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. • THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... AKRON AND 8 MILES WEST OF LATNER BY 500 PM MST LAT...LON 4031 10316 4011 10303 3998 10346 4014 10356 TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 248DEG 18KT 4010 10340 Minor Enhancement Planned to Warning Format • Add location and motion of feature • Estimated location of tornado, leading edge of gust front, leading edge of hail core, or other.

  12. Short-term Warning Formats Discussed at SB Warning Workshop • Format warnings in a more machine readable format such as CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) or XML (Extensible Markup Language) • Example from Melissa Tuttle-Carr at The Weather Channel

  13. Here’s the Plan • Begin storm-based warnings (TOR, SVR) on October 1, 2007 • Currently gathering feedback from partners and customers • Broadcasters (NWA, AMS, E-mail lists) • Emergency managers (IAEM, NEMA, E-mail lists) • Private Sector Meteorologist • December 5-6 – Technical Dissemination Workshop at Texas A&M in College Station, Texas • Developing software and training to support forecasters

  14. Questions? Contact Information: John.T.Ferree@noaa.govPhone 405-325-2209

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