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Welcome to the AMAZALERT May 2014 workshop!

Welcome to the AMAZALERT May 2014 workshop!. a. Reduced uncertainty / higher accuracy in predictions of possible Amazon dieback b . Link policies, scenarios, land-use change, climate/ecosystem functioning and finally impact on the Amazon ecosystem services in one clear set of story lines

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Welcome to the AMAZALERT May 2014 workshop!

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  1. Welcome to the AMAZALERT May 2014 workshop!

  2. a. Reduced uncertainty / higher accuracy in predictions of possible Amazon dieback b. Link policies, scenarios, land-use change, climate/ecosystem functioning and finally impact on the Amazon ecosystem services in one clear set of story lines c. Develop a comprehensive blueprint for an Early Warning System, focusing maybe less on strict ‘tipping points’ and more on broader issues of degradation

  3. Coupled Atmosphere-Land surface Analyse and new ESM results DGVMs test urgent issues rivers Coupled LUC Critical Ecosystem Services People Scenario analysis Policy analysis Land-use change model Blue-print Early-Warning System

  4. How? • Day 1: present ideas • Day 2: discuss in groups • Day 3: present first drafts • Day 4: parallel work • Day 5: final drafts and further issues

  5. Links or clashes with deliverables? • I see no clashes • Lots of links • There may be some additional work • Please investigate in your groups how deliverables could be extracted from the three ‘main products’ and where not.

  6. HAVE A GOOD MEETING

  7. ProposedpapersTheme 1 rough draft • 1 – climate /coupled - Richard, Gilvan • 2 - Regional Lincoln , Marengo • 3 – analysisofvegetation in response toclimateforcing David • 4 - Conceptual Hans, Hannes, Brad (synthesis Moore project, LBA MIP) • Focus on common output/ES • C budget • Waterrecycling index • Dryseasonlength as cross-cuttingtheme • Cross-cuttingprocess - improvedmodels&comparing – make use offieldwork • Uncertaintyat range ofspatialand time scale

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