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Lessons from the Southern African SWFDP and Mozambique NMS BY Moises Vicente Benessene

Lessons from the Southern African SWFDP and Mozambique NMS BY Moises Vicente Benessene Chair of Meteorological Association for Southern Africa -MASA Sustaining NMSs-Strengthening WMO Regional Global Centers. Outline. SADC Background Status of regional Met institutions What is MASA?

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Lessons from the Southern African SWFDP and Mozambique NMS BY Moises Vicente Benessene

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  1. Lessons from the Southern AfricanSWFDP and Mozambique NMS BY Moises Vicente Benessene Chair of Meteorological Association for Southern Africa -MASA Sustaining NMSs-Strengthening WMO Regional Global Centers Washington, 18 - 20 June, 2013

  2. Outline • SADC Background • Status of regional Met institutions • What is MASA? • MASA Achievements • Priority development needs of NMSs in SADC Region • Critical Factors For Successful Implementation • Resources requirements • Lessons from the Southern African SWFDPin Mozambique • Mozambique Vulnerability • Role of INAM • Lessons learned from the major floods in 2007 and 2013 • Conclusions Washington, 18 - 20 June, 2013

  3. Background • Weather and climate affects all economic sectors • SADC is among global regions affected by severe impacts of climate variability and change • Hydro-Meteorological Disasters impacts likely to increase in frequency and severity in SADC (IPCC-AR4) • SADC Meteorological Master plan and MASA Strategy addresses challenges of demand for timely and qualityservices : • facilitating regional cooperation, • strengthening national capacities and • ensuring compliance with international commitments Washington, 18 - 20 June, 2013

  4. Status of Regional Met. Institutions SADC Climate Services Centre: Services are constrained due to: • Insufficient personnel; and • Inadequate infrastructure (Office &Equipment). Regional Instruments Calibration Centre : not fully operational due to: • Aged calibration tools; and • Inadequate trained personnel. Regional Met Training Centres in Angola and RSA (new) : don’t meet demand largely due to: • Inadequate trained personnel; and • Inadequate infrastructure ( office & equipment) Washington, 18 - 20 June, 2013

  5. What is MASA? Meteorological Association of Southern Africa (MASA) - is an SADC Association concerned with regional cooperation in weather, climate and water. It was established in 2007 with a governing constitution. Vision of MASA MASA was formed against the background of the important role which meteorology plays in socio-economic development of the SADC region, the protection of life and property and the sustainable management of the environment. Members of MASA Angola, Botswana, DRC, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Affiliation:WMO, SADC and UK MET OFFICE. Objective MASA was formed because of the important role which meteorology plays in socio-economic development in the SADC region, the protection of life and property and the sustainable management of the environment. Washington, 18 - 20 June, 2013

  6. MASA Constitution; MASA Strategic Plan (2011 – 2015), aligned to WMO RA1 Strategy and SADC long- term plans; MASA Board Charter; WMO’s SWFDP and the SARFFGS; ISO Certification (sharing best practices); Capacity building workshops; and Needs analysis in all SADC Countries. MASA achievements Washington, 18 - 20 June, 2013

  7. Priority order Observing Networks Data management Meteorologist training/NWP Instruments calibration Climate Modeling DPFS Telecoms Products generation Aviation Met Air quality Priority development needs of NMSs in SADC Region Washington, 18 - 20 June, 2013

  8. Critical Factors For Successful Implementation Success will depend, among others, on: • Availability of resources both financial and human; • Member States and SADC give the sector high priority in their respective plans; • Development partners/stakeholders be supportive in relevant projects/activities; • NMSs and regional institutions fulfilling their respective mandates; and • Collaboration of SADC, the WMO and the MASA is considered critical for the success. Washington, 18 - 20 June, 2013

  9. Resources Requirements 2012 -2027 Washington, 18 - 20 June, 2013 The SP (2011-2015) the estimated Total Budget $ 65m US

  10. Southern African SWFDP Beneficiaries Countries • 2006 to 2007 - Botswana, Madagascar, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe (5 countries). • 2008 to 2013 - Angola, Botswana, Comoros,DRC, Lesotho, Madagascar,Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania,Zambia and Zimbabwe (16 countries and 8 of them the LDCs). • RSMC Pretoria The benefits of the SWFDP project and its operational implementation to all Southern African countries are numerous: Increased visibility, credibility, and value of meteorological services. Members of MASA agreed to take ownership of the SWFDP. Washington, 18 - 20 June, 2013

  11. Southern African SWFDP Beneficiaries Countries (2) • MASA made a modest contribution to co-fund the 2012 SWFDP-SA Capacity Building Workshop • MASA will be exhibiting in the upcoming High Level Investors Conference to be held in Maputo, Mozambique (In attendance 3 African Heads of States and 28 Ministers)- Early Warnings Systems (SWFDP) Washington, 18 - 20 June, 2013

  12. Lessons from the Southern African SWFDP in Mozambique Washington, 18 - 20 June, 2013

  13. Mozambique Vulnerability • Mozambique is very vulnerable country because of it’s localization in tropic, downstream of the 9 bigger rivers and very long cost line. • Vulnerability of Mozambique is higher because more than 50% of the population lives below the poverty line. They don’t have coping capacity to overcome the impacts of natural disaster. • The base of our economy is agriculture (80% of population), which is very sensitive to floods, drought, tropical cyclones, fires, erosion, etc. Mozambique Washington, 18 - 20 June, 2013

  14. Impact of Recent Mozambique Major Floods • 2000 • At least 700 people died, 650,000 were displaced and 4.5 million were affected, totalling a quarter of Mozambique’s population. The economy was brought to a standstill. • 2007 • Major cities and infrastructure are threatened by floods and had led to the displacement of tens of thousands of people. • 2013 • Heavy rains in January 2013 caused flooding in Mozambique, destroying houses, schools, health centers and crops, forcing the affected populations to leave their homes in search of safer areas. • These floods have affected more than 230,000 people, displaced 180,000 and killed more than 110 people since the beginning of the rainy season in October 2012. Washington, 18 - 20 June, 2013

  15. The Role of National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) The Meteorological Services in Mozambique was established in 1908 The main role of INAM is to provide weather and climate services to prevents loss of life and reduces the economic and material impact of natural hydrometeorological disasters. Before 2006: Although the awareness of hazards and their impact gained more visibility after the 2000 floods, the NMS was challenged by: • Lack of ability to forecast severe weather events; • Inadequate lead-time of warnings and alerts of severe weather events; • Poor interaction between NMS, DMCPAs and Media, before and during events; • Poor skill of the forecasters in the use of NWP products from Global Centres and satellite derived products; Washington, 18 - 20 June, 2013

  16. Implementation of SWFDP in Mozambique The implementation of SWFDP, from 2006, allowed the NMS – Mozambique Improvement on the: • Ability to forecast severe weather events; • 5 day lead-time on warnings when needed; • Interaction with DMCPAs and Media; • Improved skills of the operational forecasters in the use of NWP products from Global Centres (deterministic) through training provided by regional centres and sharing of experience among forecasters; • Feedback on NWP, EPS, guidance • The public awareness increased after outreach activities and public education through the media and exhibition. Washington, 18 - 20 June, 2013

  17. Mozambique’s Good Practices The existence of an Early Warning System in place that includes: • Flood Warning System; • Cyclone Warning System; and • Strong co-ordination of government officials & civil defense. • Local DRM committees with responsibility like: • Warning and dissemination • Evacuation • Management of shelter area • Rescue • First aid and medical sanitation. We consider responsibility at local levels to communicate warnings received to those at risk in detail, and for facilitating community actions to prevent loss and damage. Washington, 18 - 20 June, 2013

  18. Lessons learned from floods 2007 and 2013 • The model guidance correctly indicated landfall 5 days in advance where, and movement towards Zimbabwe • Mozambique NMSs in coordination with INGC and DNA issued warnings 5 days in advance: • 2007: • Provinces were put on alert levels, 2 to 3 days in advance • The public responded well and major loss of lives were prevented – though 9 people died; • 2013: • Public received early warnings by Local DRM committees, radio, TV, newspapers 5 days in advance • BUT… the public did not react until the last time – more than 100 people died (attributed to slow reaction by Disaster Management) Washington, 18 - 20 June, 2013

  19. Visibility of INAM after 2007 The monitoring of severe weather events, the sufficient lead-time In the issuance of alerts and advice/alerts/warnings for heavy rainfall, strong winds and severe thunderstorm, boosted the visibility of the NMS and the all EWS. Washington, 18-20 June 2013 Washington, 18 - 20 June, 2013 19

  20. Challenges Observing network and telecommunication system Use of NWP products in graphical format (Visualization tool) Reliable internet service Training opportunity for all forecasters (roving and/or training desk) Nowcasting (e.g. severe thunderstorm), in order to avoid case like last rainy season where 39 of 117 deaths were caused by lightning stroke Improvement of awareness campaign (drill excise) before rainy season Strengthen the interaction with media Continuous learning and capacity building by forecasters at national level; Verification of warnings and forecast Washington, 18 - 20 June, 2013

  21. Summary • SWFDP products are fully incorporated in the operationally forecasting processes; • Since the introduction of the SWFDP, they have especially demonstrated to be one of the best and helpful tools used to predict severe weather events; • The portal web based is an efficient way to delivery guidance and information of a SWFDP ; • There is a need for continuous training and improvement on the use of Nowcasting system; and • Enhancement of the exchange of information between neighbouring countries will improve the EWS. Washington, 18 - 20 June, 2013

  22. Thank you for your attention Washington, 18 - 20 June, 2013

  23. Priority order Observing Networks Data management Meteorologist training/NWP Instruments calibration Climate Modeling DPFS Telecoms Products generation Aviation Met Air quality Priority development needs of NMSs in Mozambique Washington, 18 - 20 June, 2013

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