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A Tiger and a Lion A New Scenario for the Cross-strait Economy 一 隻 小 虎 與 醒 獅

A Tiger and a Lion A New Scenario for the Cross-strait Economy 一 隻 小 虎 與 醒 獅. Chi Schive 薛 琦 Chair Professor, Shih-Hsin University, Taipei April 18, 2008, Nankai University. Prelude 楔 子 Growth 成 長 Challenges 窒 礙 Opportunities 昇 華 Remark 結語. Contents 大 綱.

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A Tiger and a Lion A New Scenario for the Cross-strait Economy 一 隻 小 虎 與 醒 獅

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  1. A Tiger and a LionA New Scenario for the Cross-strait Economy一 隻 小 虎 與 醒 獅 Chi Schive 薛 琦 Chair Professor, Shih-Hsin University, Taipei April 18, 2008, Nankai University

  2. Prelude 楔 子 Growth 成 長 Challenges 窒 礙 Opportunities 昇 華 Remark 結語 Contents 大 綱

  3. Herman Kahn (The World Economic Development, 1979) Two and half heroes 兩個半英雄 Napoleon, a wakened lion 拿破崙，東方的醒獅 “If China wakes, the sleeping lion will shake the world.” “When China awakes, it will move the world.” Prelude 楔 子

  4. Growth

  5. Table 1 Economic Growth, Taiwan and China台灣、中國大陸經濟成長 單位：% 資料來源：1.行政院主計處。2.www.imf.org

  6. Figure 1 GDP, Taiwan and China台灣、中國大陸GDP( 1980-2007 ) Times倍數 US$ billion (current prices) Taiwan 台灣 China/Taiwan 中國大陸/台灣 資料來源：http://www.imf.org

  7. Figure 2 Living Standard, Taiwan and China台灣、中國大陸生活水準（GDP PPP adjusted 1980-2007） Times 倍數 US$1,000 China/Taiwan 中國大陸/台灣 Taiwan 台灣 資料來源：http://www.imf.org

  8. Figure 3Investment and Savings, Taiwan 台灣投資與儲蓄( 1981-2007 ) ％ Savings 儲蓄 Investment 投資 Excess Savings 超額儲蓄 資料來源：行政院主計處。

  9. Figure 4 Investment and Savings, China中國大陸投資與儲蓄( 1980-2004 ) ％ Savings 儲蓄 Investment 投資 Excess Savings超額儲蓄 2004 資料來源：中國統計年鑑，2005年。

  10. Figure 5Trade Dependence, Taiwan and China對外貿易依存度 ％ Current Account, Taiwan 台灣（商品及勞務） Commodity, Taiwan 台灣（商品） Commodity, China 中國大陸（商品） 資料來源：經濟部國貿局。

  11. Figure 6Direct Foreign Investment 外人直接投資（ArrivedDFI / GDP） ％ China中國大陸 Taiwan台灣 資料來源：1.行政院主計處。2.中國統計年鑑，2005年。

  12. World GDP Share since the First Century 西元1 世紀以來中國GDP佔全球GDP之份額

  13. Challenges

  14. Financial Reforms 金融改革 Fiscal Reforms 財政改革 Labor Market Juvenescence 勞動市場活力化 Cross-strait Relations 兩岸關係 Challenges for Taiwan 窒 礙

  15. Resource Efficiency 資源使用效率 Income Distribution 所得分配 Rural and Urban Gap 城鄉差距 Appreciation of ZMB 人民幣升值 Over savings 儲蓄過多 Challenges for China 窒 礙

  16. “The annual labour of every nation is the fund which originally supplies it with all thenecessaries and conveniences oflifewhich it annually consumes…” An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes ofThe Wealth of Nations Adam Smith 1723-1790

  17. V. Challenges Ahead

  18. “Adam Smith’s economy grows to its ‘full complement of riches’ as permitted by itslawsandinstitutions, and there it rests.” According to Adam Smith Arthur W. Lewis, 1984

  19. Opportunities

  20. Direct sea and air link Cost savings may amount up 20-30% which will enhance the global competitiveness of both economies. Time savings for travelers and tourists will boost the real-estate and the sluggish tourism market in Taiwan. Both factors will revitalize the plan “Building Taiwan as an Asia-Pacific Regional Operations Center,” focusing Taiwan’s location advantage, manufacturing strength, and rich cultural assets. Collateral Benefits from Closer Economic Ties across Taiwan-strait

  21. Lifting investment cap and trade barriers Current situation: 1) There is a 40% cap on investment in China for listed companies in Taiwan. 2) Around 1,200 items of Chinese industrial products and 800 items of agricultural goods are not legitimated for free import in Taiwan. 3) Investments in infrastructural, finance and certain high-tech industries in China are regulated by Taiwan authority. Impact: 1)Further cross-strait division of labor along the horizontal product line and/or vertical process will be possible and enhance the trade competitiveness of both economies accordingly. 2) Taipei’s position and opportunity as a regional financial center will be reconfirmed CollateralBenefits from Closer Economic Ties across Taiwan-strait

  22. Further collaborations may take place: Environmental protection Culture activities Higher lever of education Development of high-tech industries CollateralBenefits from Closer Economic Ties across Taiwan-strait

  23. Prospect: A reinforced cross-strait economic ties will contribute to a more stable and sustainable economic growth for both parties, for the region, and the world economy as a whole . China in her interest to boost its economy by raising consumption and narrowing trade surplus will provide a cushion for the foreseeable falling world economy. Taiwan, on the other hand, should apply all its liberalization measures to China and thus qualified as a fully open economy. CollateralBenefits from Closer Economic Ties across Taiwan-strait

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