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Emerging telecom industry lanscape

Emerging telecom industry lanscape. Has the 96 Act failed? Confused political assurances w/ economic motivations Misunderstood difficulty, thus lacked enforcement mechanisms Oversold short-term benefits

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Emerging telecom industry lanscape

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  1. Emerging telecom industry lanscape • Has the 96 Act failed? • Confused political assurances w/ economic motivations • Misunderstood difficulty, thus lacked enforcement mechanisms • Oversold short-term benefits • The RBOC's revenge: Re-emergence of large, vertically integrated telcoslocal / long-distance / business networks • WirelessVerizon Wireless - 26.3 mCingular Wireless - 19 m (SBC + BellSouth)AT&T Wireless - 15 mSprint PCS - 9.2 mNextel Communications - 6.2 million. • Fiber troubles • Residential access: 75% BB availability, 11% take-upWiFi surprise? • Next wave of consolidation

  2. What Telecom Bust? • Two distinct events • Dot-com bust • Telecom collapse • Not demand nor technology bust • (over)supply bust - 1990's investment • New entrants • Economics of fiber supply • "Technology successfully met the challenge posed by unrealistic business plans that were formulated in willful disregard of real demand."(A. Odlyzko)

  3. Infrastructure • 90’s internet: "free" bandwidth (from the open phone network) • Today: bifurcated situation: • Long-haul and CLECs crisis • Local: still holding • What comes next? • Re-verticalization • Competitive bankruptcy • "Let them fail fast" • Challenge: incentives for infrastructure investment

  4. Standards & Architecture • 90’s internet • Open standards (compete on implementation) • End-to-end architecture • Next-Generation • Standards wars? • Limits to E2E: strategic incentives • Challenge: incentives for open / end-to-end?

  5. Lead users / leading applications • 90’s internet • expanding communities military, research, education, mass-medium • users (individual / corporate) invent the applications • Productivity: network-based re-organization of work • Next-Generation • User-led innovation requires user control • Closed networks / fragmented user communities • Challenge: sustaining user-driven innovation

  6. "Consolidation, Integration & Network Control" Some fundamental choices • Consolidated Infrastructure… or 'fibersphere' • Integrated network… or open architecture • Supplier control… or user-driven change

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