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What Goes Around, Comes Around

What Goes Around, Comes Around. 2 Examples of the Past, to forecast the Future. There is nothing new under the sun Eccl 1-9. The past is the foundation we stand on today to reach for tomorrow. Example Past Winter. How many people were looking at sequence of events in 1917-1918?

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What Goes Around, Comes Around

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  1. What Goes Around, Comes Around 2 Examples of the Past, to forecast the Future

  2. There is nothing new under the sunEccl 1-9 • The past is the foundation we stand on today to reach for tomorrow

  3. Example Past Winter • How many people were looking at sequence of events in 1917-1918? • Lack of hurricane season, even with favorable SST set up • Major ne pacific warm pool • Major cold over US. • 93-94: Major ne Pacific warm pool

  4. Dec 1917 SST vs this year

  5. Dec 1993

  6. This Year

  7. 17/18 93-94

  8. Winter This year

  9. Our forecast Evolution July(Nov-Feb)

  10. Verification of Nov-Feb

  11. Nov 1 forecast

  12. Nov 22 Final

  13. Example.. End game of AMO/hurricane/arctic ice idea • AMO cooling, warmest water at end of warm amo western Atlantic • Pattern similar to 1950s • Arctic ice starts to increase as the AMO cools

  14. East Coast hurricanes in the 1950s

  15. CURRENT WATER TEMPS

  16. 1951-1955

  17. 1956-60

  18. THE GREAT NEAR MISS 1961-ESTHER

  19. 1966-1980

  20. Before SANDY, DORIA tried it 1967

  21. Near Miss Major, Gerda 1969

  22. 1981-1996

  23. Last time positive Summer anomaly

  24. Models still trying for positive extent, height of melt season this year

  25. Reason why, until now, east coast spared.. SST not in wheelhouse

  26. But it is now, as N Atlantic starts cooling

  27. So here is the test: • End game of AMO near, East coast hurricane threats enhanced • But end of arctic ice scam in site • Can’t wait for AGW agenda excuses

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