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Economic Outlook

Economic Outlook. Joe Cortright March 2007. The Two Scariest Words in School…. Pop Quiz. College Attainment. Question 1.  What percent of adult Oregonians have completed a four-year college degree?. College Attainment.

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Economic Outlook

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  1. Economic Outlook Joe Cortright March 2007

  2. The Two Scariest Words in School…

  3. Pop Quiz

  4. College Attainment Question 1.  What percent of adult Oregonians have completed a four-year college degree?

  5. College Attainment Question 1.  What percent of adult Oregonians have completed a four-year college degree? Answer: 27.7% (American Community Survey, 2005)

  6. High School Graduation Question 2.  What percent of adult Oregonians have only a high school diploma, or less education? (What percent have no education beyond high school)?

  7. High School Graduation Question 2.  What percent of adult Oregonians have only a high school diploma, or less education? (What percent have no education beyond high school)? Answer: 38.8% (American Community Survey, 2005)

  8. Returns to Education Question 3.  Each year, how much more does the typical 4-year college graduate earn than the typical person with just a high school diploma?

  9. Returns to Education Question 3.  Each year, how much more does the typical 4-year college graduate earn than the typical person with just a high school diploma? Answer: 83% MoreHigh school graduate only: $27,9154-year College Degree: $51,206(Current Population Survey, 2003)

  10. Who Pays Taxes Question 4.  One-third of all Oregon households have at least one household member with a four-year college degree. What fraction of Oregon income tax revenues are paid by these households?

  11. Who Pays Taxes Question 4.  One-third of all Oregon households have at least one household member with a four-year college degree. What fraction of Oregon income tax revenues are paid by these households? Answer: 55%(Impresa estimates from OPS and IRS data)

  12. Public Expenditures: Health Question 5.  What fraction of the adult enrollees in the Oregon Health Plan have a high school diploma or less education?

  13. Public Expenditures: Health Question 5.  What fraction of the adult enrollees in the Oregon Health Plan have a high school diploma or less education? Answer: 62%.(Impresa estimates from OPS data)

  14. Public Expenditures: Corrections Question 6.  What fraction of the inmates in the Oregon Correctional system have a high school diploma or less education?

  15. Public Expenditures: Corrections Question 6.  What fraction of the inmates in the Oregon Correctional system have a high school diploma or less education?Answer: 72%(Impresa estimates from OPS data)

  16. Public Expenditures: Unemployment Question 7.  What percentage of persons drawing unemployment insurance payments in Oregon have just a high school diploma or less education?

  17. Public Expenditures: Unemployment Question 7.  What percentage of persons drawing unemployment insurance payments in Oregon have just a high school diploma or less education? Answer: 71%(Impresa estimates from Oregon Employment Department data)

  18. Civic Participation Question 8.  How much more likely are persons with a 4-year college degree to vote than those with just a high school diploma?

  19. Civic Participation Question 8.  How much more likely are persons with a 4-year college degree to vote than those with just a high school diploma? Answer: 59% more likelyHigh School Graduate: 43.3%4 Year College Graduate 68.7%(Adults 25 to 44, Current Population Survey, 2004 Election)

  20. Diversity Question 9.  What fraction of the kids who will enter Kindergarten in Oregon next year are Hispanic?

  21. Diversity Question 9.  What fraction of the kids who will enter Kindergarten in Oregon next year are Hispanic? Answer: About one in six (17%)(American Community Survey)

  22. Global High School Question 10: What fraction of the world’s population will attend secondary school?

  23. Global High School Question 10: What fraction of the world’s population will attend secondary school? Answer: Three in Five. 60% of the world’s population will attend secondary school.Secondary School is nearly universal in Europe, Korea, Japan & 70% in China, 64% in Mexico, 60% in Brazil, 50% in India.

  24. Worldwide College Attendance Question 11. What percentage of the world’s college students attend classes in the United States?

  25. Worldwide College Attendance Question 11. What percentage of the world’s college students attend classes in the United States? Answer: US Accounts for just 16% --14 million of world’s 88 million -- college students

  26. State Per Capita Income Drivers Question 12: What’s the biggest single factor determining differences in state per capita income A. Tax Levels B. Business Climate C. Bill Gates D. % of Adults with a 4-Year Degree

  27. D. % of Adults with a Four-Year Degree

  28. Education matters • Drives personal income • Contributes to state revenue • Lack of education drives state costs • Education increases civic engagement • Ethnic and gender diversity increasing • Global competitiveness

  29. Last 30 Years Boomers enter prime work years Women’s labor market participation nearly doubles Educational attainment up sharply = Labor Surplus Next 30 Years Boomers retire; many early Women’s labor market participation plateaus Educational attainmentplateaus = Labor Shortage A Seismic Shift in Labor Markets

  30. For More Information www.ImpresaConsulting.com

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