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Balancing Teacher Supply & Demand in Lithuania: Forecasting Model

This project aims to improve the balance between student enrollment in teacher training programs and the actual need for teachers in schools in Lithuania. It involves creating short and mid-term forecasts on teacher demand, recommendations for student admission to training programs, and implementing a model supported by the European Social Fund and the European Commission. Stakeholders include MOSTA, policymakers, HEIs, municipalities, and society. The model allows for scenario testing, and the results are open and transparent. Detailed information on specializations, forecasting framework, and scenario testing is available in the scope. Pilot project results and an interactive tool can be accessed via the provided links.

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Balancing Teacher Supply & Demand in Lithuania: Forecasting Model

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  1. 11th February, 2019

  2. Aim To improve the balance between the number of students enrolled into initial teacher training programmes and the actual need for teachers at schools in Lithuania. PROJECT DESIGN Outputs 1. Short-term (1 year) and mid-term (4 year) forecasts on new teacher demand. 2. Recommendations on student admission to ITT programmes and other recommendations related to balancing the oversupply and shortage in the teacher workforce. Implementation • Model creation - MOSTA project “The Implementation of Skilled Labor Supply Analysis and Monitoring System“, European Social Fund. • Technical assistance - Structural Reform Support Service (SRSS), European Commission.

  3. Primary data sources Teachers Register Pupils Register Student Register SYSTEM STAKEHOLDERS Regularly updated database Education Management Information System (EMIS) Planning model owner Research and Higher Education Monitoring and Analysis Centre (MOSTA) Analysis and recommendations Research and Higher Education Monitoring and Analysis Centre (MOSTA) Expert Group Policy makers Users HEIs Municipalities, schools Society

  4. Data driven Model uses data from the register of teachers and tax authorities as an input and provides quantitative projections or forecasts. MODEL CRITERIA The model allows analytics test scenarios by changing model inputs. Flexible Automated The model is updated annually and requires as little human-driven data mining as possible. Relevant The model allows flexible inputs that reflect changes in teacher training system and in general education. Applicable Model results are used to provide recommendations for changes in policy. Open The framework, input/output indicators and modelling steps are open and transparent to a wider society. The model results are provided by agreed level of detail. Detailed

  5. MODEL SCOPE: SPECIALISATIONS UNITS SPECIALISATIONS IN THE MODEL WEIGHTED UNIQUE SPECIALISATIONS NOT IN THE MODEL UNIT 9290

  6. Teacher demand Expansion demand for changes in pupil number (ED) Substitution demand (retirement, death, resignation) (SUB) FORECASTING MODEL FRAMEWORK Total teacher demand by specialisation (index s) and forecast year (index t) Supply and demand connection PHASE 1 New teacher demand forecast (Y) by specialisation (s) and year (t) PHASE 2 Student admission (A) Teacher supply Total teacher supply by specialisation (s) and year (t) ITT STUDENTS (STS) Non-qualified teachers (NQ) Inactive teachers (INAC) College University

  7. SCENARIO TESTING AND MODELING 1. 3 different scenarios (baseline;scenario 1; scenario 2). Publicly available. 2. New scenario creation based on built-in assumptions. Publicly available. 3. Modeling of certain model elements as an input to the new teacher demand forecast. Publicly available. New scenario and assumption creation. Available only for model creators. To be determined by the work/ expert group. 4.

  8. PILOT PROJECT RESULTS AND AN INTERACTIVE TOOL ABOUT THE PROJECT, INTERIM DOCUMENTS, MEETING REPORTS AND OTHER https://mosta.lt/lt/apie-mosta/vykdomi-projektai/pedagogu-prognozavimas FINAL REPORT (ENGLISH) https://mosta.lt/images/pedagogai/2018-11-07-Forecasting-the-Teaching-Workforce-in-Lithuania.pdf INTERACTIVE TOOL: https://mosta.lt/images/pedagogai/MODEL_v3_public_v1_secured.xlsx

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