Using the Decision Dashboard (DD) to model the Rincon case

1. Using the Decision Dashboard (DD) to model the Rincon case CEE100

2. Key to Slides • Column 1: Questions • Column 2: DD Concepts Introduced • Column 3: DD Demonstration • Column 4: Use of DD (Col. 1) – what are “we” trying to figure out • Column 5: Conclusions reached (findings)

3. Phase 1 - Michael Blumenthal • We are going to model decisions made during the beginning of the Rincon project. Michael Blumenthal is considering whether h should take on the project, whether he has the necessary qualities. He also needs to make decision regarding forming a project team. • Should Michael Blumenthal take on the project?

4. DD Elements • The DD’s AEC Decision Ontology defines 5 element types • Stakeholders • Topics • Criteria • Alternatives • Dashboard

5. DD Stakeholders • At this stage we have a single stakeholder: Michael Blumenthal

6. Hierarchy and Selection • The DD allows hierarchical representation of elements • It also allows representing elements as selected elements and non-selected candidate elements

7. DD Decision Topics • Michael B. needs to decide whether he is going to take on the project, or (in other words) if he is to be a co-owner of the project, as opposed to someone else.

8. Criteria • What factors does Michael Blumenthal consider when deciding whether or not to proceed with the project? • Does he believe that the project is viable? • Does he expect the project contract to be favorable? • Does he have the experienceandreputation to land the contract? • Does he have the financial power and image to land the contract? • Can we group these criteria into hierarchy?

9. DD Criteria

10. Topics and Criteria • How can we model how each topic relates to each criterion? • For example, how would we model Michael Blumenthal’s experience and reputation?

11. DD Attributes • The DD allows the decision modeler to define attributes and attribute values for elements • We can specify single attribute values (for Topics)… • …or ranges of acceptable values (for criteria)

12. Specifying Topic Attributes • We can assign each decision topic with attribute values that give it a rating with respect to each criterion.

13. Acceptable Criteria Values • What would be the acceptable rating for a particular criterion? • For example, if Michael Blumenthal’s experience and reputation rating was 4 (on a scale of 1 to 10), would that be acceptable?

14. Specifying Topic Attributes

15. Importance of Criteria • Which criteria are most important? • How can we assign weights to each criterion to reflect this?

16. Criteria Weights • The DD defines a weight for each criterion, to specify its importance • The DD also allows the decision modeler to specify weights for Topics and Stakeholders, and also for each stakeholder to specify a preference weight for each criteria. However for simplicity, we won’t consider these.

17. Criterion Weights

18. Dashboard Element • The DD’s Dashboard Element allows decision modelers to combine Topics, Criteria and Stakeholders into on unified model

19. Combining all decision elements

20. Evaluation Table • All elements under a single Dashboard element are summarized in the Evaluation Table

21. Evaluation Table

22. What might the DD tell us? • Is the project viable? • Can Michael Blumenthal alone go ahead with the project? • What are his shortcomings? • Would some else be potentially better than him to take on the project? • What qualities should he look for in potential project partners?

23. What does the DD tell us? • Michael Blumenthal’s Pros • Belief in project • Considers contract terms favorable • Michael Blumenthal’s Cons • Lacks reputation • Lacks financial image • He needs to find project partners who will fill the reputation and financial image void

24. Phase 2 – Enter Chin and Hensolt • Should Michael Blumenthal select Chin and Hensolt as Structural Engineers, or select some other party? • Also, should Michael Blumenthal select Chin and Hensolt as a co-owner, or consider someone else?

25. More DD Topics

26. Choosing Chin • What factors does Chin consider when deciding whether or not to join the project? • What are the advantages/disadvantages of choosing Chin-Henslot?

27. More Criteria

28. Rating Chin and Hensolt • How would you rate Chin and Hensolt with respect to the criteria? • How would you rate a competing structural engineer on these same criteria?

29. Chin’s Attributes

30. DD Charts • The DD supports the automatic generation of a wide range of charts

31. Chart of Chin’s Attributes

32. Reasons behind choosing specific Criteria • Why were the chosen criteria so chosen? • Maximize chances of landing the project • Help form a successful team • Satisfy personal goals of team members

33. Alternative Elements • An Alternative Element remembers a certain selection of Elements • Different Alternatives remember different selections of elements

34. Alternatives groups of Criteria

35. What might the DD tell us? • Are Chin and Hensolt’s criteria for joining the project satisfied? • To what extent does Chin and Hensolt’s make up for Michael Blumenthal’s shortcomings? • How does Chin compare with other potential Structural engineers and Co-owners • What qualities should Michael Blumenthal and Chin look for in potential project partners?

36. What does the DD tell us? • Chin is satisfied with the contract terms and believes that the project will be viable • Chin compares better to other potential structural engineers on all the criteria • Chin also makes up for some of Blumenthal’s lack of reputation, but does not really add any financial power to the team. Hence, Blumenthal need to find a financially powerful partner

37. Phase 3 – Enter Tutor-Saliba • Should Michael Blumenthal and Chin (and Hensolt) select Tutor-Saliba as Contractors, or select some other party? • Also, they select Tutor-Saliba as a co-owner, or consider someone else?

38. More DD Stakeholders

39. More DD Topics

40. Choosing Tutor-Saliba • What factors does Tutor-Saliba consider when deciding whether or not to join the project? • What are the advantages/disadvantages of choosing  Tutor-Saliba?

41. Rating Tutor-Saliba • How would you rate Tutor-Saliba with respect to the criteria?

42. All Ratings so far…

43. What might the DD tell us? • Are Tutor-Saliba’s criteria for joining the project satisfied? • What does Tutor-Saliba bring to the project team? • How does Tutor-Saliba compare with other potential Contractors and Co-owners • Are further project partners needed? What qualities should they have?

44. What does the DD tell us? • Tutor-Saliba is satisfied with the contract terms and believes that the project will be viable • Tutor-Saliba compares better to other potential structural engineers on all the criteria, but financial image • The team still lack financial power. So it probably needs a partner who is strong financially and has a good reputation in that respect

45. Phase 4 – Enter Peter Bolles and Perini • Who should Michael Blumenthal, Chin (and Hensolt) and Tutor-Saliba as the architect? Peter Bolles or someone else? • Also should they consider selecting a further Co-owner? Why? • Would Perini be suitable?

46. More DD Stakeholders

47. More DD Topics

48. Choosing Peter Bolles and Perini • What are the advantages/disadvantages of choosing  Peter Bolles? • How can we rate Peter Bolles to reflect this? • What are the advantages/disadvantages of choosing  Perini? • How can we rate Perini?

49. Topic Alternatives

50. Final Evaluation Table