Weather Task Group Sessions Al Hefner (NIST)

1. Weather Task GroupSessionsAl Hefner (NIST)

2. Outline • Weather Information Model Background • Weather Task Group Recommendations • Planning potential SGIP Weather PAP

3. Need for SGIP Weather Data Activities • Today there are multiple SDO weather data model efforts • Need coordination and co-development of weather information models thorough • use cases development • cross-participation between weather data model efforts • SGIP can play a constructive role to insure interoperability: • broad stakeholder participation and needs representation • inputs by Renewable/DER, utility/ISO/RTO community • Vision: develop unified modeling approach and/or a well-defined weather information model development ecosystem to ensure consistency and mappings.

4. Existing SGIP Weather Data Activities • SGIP PAP 17/B2G White Paper: Weather Information Model Standard for Integrating Facilities with Smart Grid - guided ASHRAE SCP201P using an extension of WXXM • PAP 16 discussions of transmission wind plant and DER weather information model requirements: • SunSpec, AWEA documents related to Weather Data • Bidirectional weather information exchange: • weather sensor data collected at wind/solar generator/plant • forecast information for use at wind/solar generator/plant • DRGS DEWG Subgroup B (UCs and Information models) identified Weather Data as Highest Priority Gap and definedgoal of UC development and model consistency

5. SDO Weather Data Model Activities • WXXM general standard for weather data (from aviation) • moving to the WMO to become an international standard • based on core models of Open Geospatial Consortium • SGIP could coordinate through National Weather Service • ASHRAE SCP201P weather model based on WXXM with minor extensions e.g. solar irradiance, focused on loads • IEC TC57 Joint TG (WG10, WG17, JWG25) on weather UCs • IEC 61850, 61400-25 include weather information from meteorological towers at power plants, substations, DER • “Adding Forecasts to the IEC 61400-25,” Giebeland Gehrke • what data is collected, where does it go, what is it used for

6. Example Weather Data Activities • EPRI looking at • CIM for utility enterprise and IEC 61850 for collecting data • UCs for forecasting generation, dispatch, and bidding • Cal ISO asked if hour-ahead generation forecasts can be improved from 20% error using upstream met. tower data • Sothern California Edison, Solar Power Forecasting • Argonne National Labs, Wind Power Forecasting http://www.dis.anl.gov/projects/windpowerforecasting.html • DOE SunShotFOA on forecasting at sub-hourly, hourly, day www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/sunshot/financial_opps_detail.html?sol_id=511

7. Outline • Weather Information Model Background • Weather Task Group Recommendations • Planning potential SGIP Weather PAP

8. Weather TaskGroup Recommendations • Key experts group: weather data, renewables, buildings: • AWEA, SunSpec • NOAA, EPRI, Argon NL • WXXM/WMO, IEC, ASHRAE • Concern that lack of coordination between WMO, IEC, ASHRAE might lead to Smart Grid interoperability issues • SGIP Weather UC collection/development would provide guidance to standards development: WMO,IEC,ASHRAE • Define a PAP proposal for future SGIP GB consideration • would give ability/visibility to pull in resources and experts

9. Tasks for potential SGIP Weather PAP • Outreach: NOAA, NREL, SunShotWeather FOA, ERPI, ISO/RTO, Private weather forecasters • Coordinate and collect Smart Grid Weather UCs and develop additional use cases where needed. • Business practices (needed for Bidding practice for example) – what is being done and might be done; e.g., Texas (retail energy bidding), European model, • Building/facility – renewable (weather forecasting), CHP (load forecasting) • Generation Plants (wind, solar, wave, etc.) • Draft White Paper on DRGS device Weather Information Model UC requirements closely aligned/leveraging B2G White Paper • Coordinate appropriately with the multiple SDOs to ensure that developed weather data standards will be interoperable.

10. Outline • Weather Information Model Background • Weather Task Group Recommendations • Planning potential SGIP Weather PAP

11. Outreach and Cross Coordination • NOAA, NREL, SunShot Weather FOA, ERPI , universities • ISO/RTO (TSO), Distribution utilities • Private weather forecasting firms, e.g., energy&meteoand Windlogic • Variable Renewable groups with forecasting activities: • AWEA, SunSpec, UVIG, 3Tier and AWS TruePower • SDO’s: • WXXM/WMO – Matt Peroutka is US Representative • IEC – Frances Cleveland, Stan Klein, GregorGiebel • ASHRAE • PAPs/DEWGs: PAP16, PAP17, DRGS, B2G

12. Initial Use Case Classification (page 1) Application of Weather Data by Wind/Solar/CHP Generator • Forecasting data may be used autonomously by a single turbine or wind farm in the middle of nowhere. • Wind farm determine its own maintenance schedule, taking next few day low-wind periods into account. (cleverfarm.com) • CHP generator use weather data to forecast thermal load demand and determine CHP generation schedule and projected generation availability. • Microclimate data and forecasting used for storage charge management and microgrid planed islanding. • Historical data for Wind/Solar/CHP plant siting.

13. Initial Use Case Classification (page 2) Communication of microclimate Weather Data collected by Wind/Solar/CHP Generators to forecasters: • Microclimate data collected from individual rooftop solar • Wind plant individual turbine and met. tower data Forecasting and Sensor Data needs for Grid Applications: • Probabilistic distribution weather forecast for generator production, market and operational requirements • Outage prediction/restoration from major storms using weather sensor data including lightning • Disturbance analysis using rapid weather data exchange

14. Initial Use Case Classification (page 3) Types of forecasts required for Wind Power: • Basic operation: Point forecasts • Operation which takes into account asymmetrical penalties on deviations from the bid: Quantile forecasts • Stochastic optimization taking into account start/stop costs, heat storage, and/or ’implicit’ storage by allowing the hydro power production to be changed with wind power production: Scenarios respecting correctly calibrated quantiles and auto correlation. Source: HenrikAalborg Nielsen, ENFOR

15. Possible Gaps in Existing Standards • WXXM is very sketchy with regard to representing uncertainty, as it is made to transport observations, not forecasts. • Might be helpful to add info from individual turbines such as wind speed/direction at turbine altitudes (to better represent microclimate). • Need better way to aggregate data over various time and spatial scales. Time and spatial scales vary widely: • Time scales vary between historical data for siting, market or restoration, rapid data exchange for disturbance analysis • Spatial scales vary between wind/solar generator or farm, building/campus, microgrid or distribution system, ISO/RTO

16. References • http://science.house.gov/hearing/subcommittee-energy-and-environment-hearing-rd-high-performance-renewable-energy-development • Forecasting of Wind Power in IEC 61400-25 ed 2, Dr. GregorGiebel, DTU Wind Energy; http://powwow.risoe.dk/publ/GiebelGehrke-AddingForecastsToIEC61400-25.pdf • cleverfarm.com • http://www.dis.anl.gov/projects/windpowerforecasting.html • DOE SunShot FOA on forecasting at sub-hourly, hourly, day www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/sunshot/financial_opps_detail.html?sol_id=511