A Ordem das Regras na Economia e os Limites do Intervencionismo

1. A Ordem das Regras na Economia e os Limites do Intervencionismo Dr. Antony Mueller Professor de Economia, UCS antonymueller@yahoo.com

2. Laws vs. Rules • Laws in the sense of legal laws are made and imposed (e.g. military draft) • Laws in science are held to be immutable • Rules emerge spontaneously • Rules are evolutionary • Order of rules can be seen as a complex of unintended consequences of human action (result of human action but not of human design: money, language, trade, markets, the Internet)

3. Order vs. System • “System” in terms of its “structure” is conceived as static • Order is conceived as something that has emerged and is evolving • Order implies high degrees of freedom for its variables • Human action as the singular element of the economic order: perception, interaction, correction

4. Order vs. Organization • Organizations are based on command structures – hierarchical (including paternalistic) • Organizations have specific aims (e.g. profit for a company) • Order has no specific aim. Rules emerge and evolve for the benefit of the individual or the group (e.g. language, money) • Rules of organization are often explicit; rules of order mostly implicit (firm - market)

5. The concept of order in economic theory • Aristotle: cosmos and taxis • Saint Thomas: natural law – positive law • Quesnay: ordre positif – ordre naturel • Adam Smith: natural order (invisible hand) • Carl Menger: economic institutions as unintended and unplanned consequences of human action • Ludwig von Mises: regression theorem of the value of money • Friedrich Hayek: constitutional economics • Walter Eucken: theory of ordo-economics

6. Organizational view of economics • Mercantilists (treasury wealth) • Socialists (expropriation) • War economics (WWI, WWII, Cold War) • Modern Interventionists (social justice, market imperfections) • Stabilizers (modern macroeconomics) • Development Strategists (Myrdal, CEPAL)

7. Epistemological Aspects: Positivism old and new • Positivism (Auguste Comte: savoir pour prevoir et prevoir pour pouvoir) • Control theory (Paul Samuelson) • Economy as object of organization (Central planning – War Economics) • Control of human action (Behaviorism) • Economics as a (failed) predictive science • Limits of the economics of control (“Thinking men cannot be ruled”)

8. Epistemological Aspects: Complexity • Economic Phenomena as Complex Phenomena • Limits to prognosis (unstable relations) • Pattern predictions (QTM) • Explanation of the Principles (e.g. price ceilings) • Evolutionary Falsification (theory and history) • The economic problem as a co-ordination problem (no equilibrium) • Conceit of Knowledge (Hayek)

9. Types of economics • Situational economics (game theory, economic information theory, experimental economics, psychological economics) • Homo oeconomicus models • Market behavior models • Macroeconomics • Institutional Economics • Constitutional (or Ordo-) Economics (Hayek/Eucken)

10. Smith-Ricardo-Marx Tradition • Individual wealth – wealth of nations • Productivity – Division of Labor – Markets – Prices and Money (Smith) • “Classes” and “countries” as economic agents (Ricardo) • Objective Theory of Value • Development Laws (Marx/Malthus) • Supremacy of the State

11. Smith-Mill-Menger Tradition • Productivity – Division of Labor – Markets – Prices and Money (Smith) • Private Property (Mill) • Subjective (marginal) Valuation (Menger) • Economic Calculation (Mises) • Dispersion of Knowledge (Hayek)

12. Constitutive Principles • Abstract “Rule of Law” • Subsidiarity Principle • Definite Property Rights • Free Markets (limited regulation) • Strict Profit-Loss-Rules (economic calculation) • Transparency and Accountability (corporate and governmental governance) • Monetary Order (different from mere “price stability”) • Free money and banking (Hayek/Rothbard/White)

13. Regulative Principles • Constancy of economic policy • Unity of economic policy • Order criteria of intervention • Minimal Taxation • Limited Government Activity • Prudential Supervision of Competition • Incentive-oriented social security systems

14. Research Focus • Strong limited State vs. Weak unlimited Government • Evolutionary Order vs. Social Engineering • Pattern Prediction vs. Specific (quantitative) Prognosis • Explanation of the principle vs. Econometric Modeling • Complexity Models vs. Reductionist Models • Analysis in Categories of “Order” vs. “Systems-” and “Organization”-Categories

15. Conclusion: The Limits of Interventionism • Absence of the preconditions for effective intervention: • Knowledge Problem (economic knowledge as largely tacit, specific, dispersed, individual, subjective) • Prognosis Problem (lack of quantitative laws) • Control Problem (volitional freedom in human action) • Value Problem (subjective-individual vs. objective-collective)