1 / 29

The UN regime on the road to Bali October 2007

The UN regime on the road to Bali October 2007. Claire N Parker Environmental Policy Consultant. OUTLINE. Context in which the post 2012 UNFCCC regime is being shaped Fundamentals of a new regime Developments within the UN process Expectations for Bali?.

landry
Download Presentation

The UN regime on the road to Bali October 2007

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The UN regime on the road to BaliOctober 2007 Claire N Parker Environmental Policy Consultant

  2. OUTLINE • Context in which the post 2012 UNFCCC regime is being shaped • Fundamentals of a new regime • Developments within the UN process • Expectations for Bali?

  3. Context in which the post 2012 UN regime is being shaped UNFCCC 1992 Kyoto Protocol 1997 emission reduction targets expire 2012

  4. IPCC AR4 (2007) Overall more confidence, more consensus ‘global emissions of greenhouse gases need to peak in the next 10 to 15 years and then be reduced to… well below half of levels in 2000 by mid-century, if the climate is to be safely stabilised’

  5. IPCC AR4 Impacts - generally negative In particular: • compound poverty • endanger security • impede nations’ ability to achieve sustainable development

  6. Stern Review (Oct 2006) Costs of prevention < costs of inaction 1 % of global GDP / year 5% of global GDP/year, now and forever 20% if wider risks taken into account

  7. EU Council March 2007 Climate and Energy Strategy 2°C limit, 2020 (-20/30%) - 2050 (-60/80%) Global and comprehensive global agreement Energy efficiency => cut consumption by 20% by 2020 20% renewables 10% biofuels in petrol and diesel

  8. G 8 June 2007 • Process based results • “consider seriously” global goal of min -50% by 2050 • US: “major emitters” process to contribute to UNFCCC process • timetable for G.8: new global deal by 2009 • inadequate interaction with the +5 countries (Brazil, China, India, Mexico, South Africa)

  9. US ‘Major Economies’ process Sept 2007 • US acknowledges climate change is a problem • Wants long-term global goal for emission reductions • Process to contribute to UNFCCC negotiations towards consensus in 2009 • National strategies to reflect own energy resources, state of development and economic needs • Amounts to voluntary action (widely rejected…) • Technology is the solution

  10. Reduce emissions to stabilise climate & limit change toa safe level Adapt to (already inevitable) climate change Urgent Inclusive to ensure Effectiveness Fairness Based on solidarity Response to global crisis Fundamentals of a new regime

  11. Per capita CO2 emissions

  12. Top 25 « footprints »(WRI/Pew Center; data for 2000) Top 25 in Population Top 25 in GDP Netherlands, (Taiwan) Thailand Canada, Rep. Korea, Australia, S. Africa, Spain, Poland, Argentina USA, China, EU25, Russia, India, Japan, Germany, Brazil, UK, Italy, Mexico, France,Indonesia, Iran, Turkey Bangladesh, Nigeria, Viet Nam, Philippines, Ethiopia, Egypt, Congo Top 25 in Emissions (excl. LUCF) Ukraine, Pakistan Saudi Arabia

  13. Outline of a package ideally guided by ‘shared vision’ • Integrate CC in sustainable development • Mostly win/wins but also negative feedbacks • Vulnerability and adaptation • Assistance to most vulnerable countries • Mitigation: verifiable targets, differentiated commitments in common framework of accountability • Cap& trade, policies, sectoral benchmarks, … • Technology, finance and markets

  14. The UN Process in a nutshell • Coalitions among the 194 countries • G77 + China • European Union (+ candidates) • JUSSCANNZ (Japan, US, Canada, Norway, Australia, NZ) • Umbrella group (JUSCANNZ + Russia) • Environmental Integrity Group (Mexico, Korea, Switzerland, Liechtenstein and Monaco)

  15. G 77 + China • AOSIS (40+ small island states) • OPEC/Saudi Arabia • Latin America & Caribbean (33) • African Group • LDC group • (Asian Group) Environmental and business NGOs, financial institutions, cities etc.

  16. Recent developments in UN process • Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG) only KP parties • Dialogue on long-term cooperative action under the Convention all parties to UNFCCC

  17. Vienna Climate Change TalksSept 2007 Analysis of existing and potential investment and financial flows => ‘the scale of the problem is clear from the IPCC, the technology is available, and solutions are financially affordable’ Yvo de Boer, Exec Sec UNFCCC

  18. UN High Level Event on Climate Change • Convened by Secretary-General on 24 Sept. • “clear call for a breakthrough” at Bali COP • need to generate action by all countries, while pursuing their development goals, to limit emissions of the gases that cause climate change, to develop and deploy the practices and technologies that hold the key to a climate-friendly future, and to adapt to the climate changes that are inevitable.

  19. Expectations for Bali: issues important to developing countries in Vienna, China called for ‘legally binding instruments on adaptation, technology transfer and financing to safeguard the climate change process’

  20. Transfer of technology • Renewables, energy efficiency and conservation, carbon capture and storage • Major barriers: intellectual property rights • Need for enabling environments or to be seen as a response to a global crisis (enlightened self-interest?)

  21. Adaptation • Industrialised countries have responsibility • Bilateral and multilateral funding • Insufficient- in order of $100-130mil/year • Adaptation Fund from share of proceeds from CDM • CDM volume in pipeline to 2012 is $2.2 bn • Assuming 80- 300mil CERs/yr at $24, there wd be $80-300mil in adaptation fund by 2012 • Modalities for disbursement under discussion

  22. Finance • UNFCCC estimate: $200-210bn in 2030 to return emissions to current levels, 46% in developing countries • New and additional resources needed • Mainstreaming climate change in FDI and ODA • Carbon markets • Tool of efficiency as well as source of $ via levies

  23. Possible contributionsby developing countries • Avoiding deforestation, for which they would be compensated • Others might include: • Sustainable development policies and measures • Intensity goals • Sectoral benchmarks

  24. Convention (COP) Bali Roadmap • Convention Dialogue: • Advancing development goals • Addressing action on adaptation • Realising full pot. of technology • Realising full pot. of market-based opportunities 4th Workshop Report to COP-13 • Ambition/objective • “principles” • Platform & process • Timeline • Recognition of action • Deforestation • Technology • Adaptation • Finance & investment • Russian Proposal? Deforestation (SBSTA) Technology Transfer (SBSTA) Adaptation (SBSTA & SBI) IPCC AR4 ? Kyoto Protocol (CMP) AWG (Art. 3.9) 4th Session • Commitments AI KP • Russian Proposal? • Incentives for action • Bunker fuels • ? Russian Proposal Review of the Kyoto Protocol May August December The Bali “roadmap”

  25. International climate negotiations timeline SOURCE: EUROPEAN COMMISSION 2007 2008 2009 2010 FIN GER PORT SLO FRA CZ SWE ESP BEL COP 12 COP 13 Indonesia COP 14, Poland COP 15, Denmark COP16, Latin America Science 4th AR IPCC Follow-Up Convention Dialogue Convention Dialogue Deal on New International Framework New targets for industrialised countries under the Kyoto Protocol (Art 3.9) Review of Kyoto Protocol (Art 9) Follow-Up Review G20 Gleneagles Plan of Action G8 GER G8 JAP G8 ITA

  26. Thank you Claire N Parker Environmental Policy Consultant claire.n.parker@btopenworld.com

  27. Extra slides that may be useful in the discussion

  28. Effectiveness, fairness and potential (Data for 2000, 6 KP gases - except 1950-2000)Source: WRI/CAIT < www.cait.wri.org>

  29. EU-15 and EU-25 emissions and projectionssource: EC

More Related