Mexico

1. Mexico

2. Mexico: Long Lasting Traditions • Azteca and Maya Civilizations disrupted by Spanish invasion and conquest (16th century) • Tenotchtitlán, these days Mexico city, was larger than any European city (≈ Japan?). Today’s population: 24 millions (≈ Tokio?). 5 cities larger with over 1 million inhabitants, and more than 50,000 (rural) villages. • Development of wealthy landed elites taking over peasant communitarian forms of property • Ambiguous role of the (Catholic) Church • Mexico’s political development = struggle of the descendants of the previous owners of the land against foreigners allied with privileged and opportunistic Mexicans

3. Independence? • 1800s: Independence struggle. Father Miguel Hidalgo and Father José María Morelos… killed by the Spaniards. • Internal struggle, revolts, and foreign intervention • 1848 Treaty of Guadalupe-Hidalgo + Gadsden PurchaseAnnexation of the United States of today’s Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and California (= half of Mexico) • Are Mexicans coming… or they have been already here for 1½ century?

4. From Independence to Empire Independence succeeds in the mid 19th century with the support of the elites (who were afraid of Spain’s Liberal government) Neutralization of the popular forces • Agustín Iturbide proclaims himself Emperor • 1860 French(Napoleon III) invasion • French-dependent Mexican Empire (Maximilian of Austria)

5. La Reforma • 1867 Execution of Maximilien led by Benito Juárez (Caudillo) • 1876-1910 New Caudillo: Porfirio Díaz (Liberal, economic development, non-recognition to the lower classes and peasants, special concessions for foreign investors) • 1910- Mexican Revolution • Start: inter-elite conflict led by Madero. Claim for political liberalization. Díaz resigns, Madero becomes president, but since he continues with the same policies, he is overthrown and shot. • Radicalization of the Revolution: Emiliano Zapata (popular leader, Mexican hero) & Pancho Villa (popular, more opportunistic) • 1915- U.S. recognition to Carranza as president • Zapata and Villa assassinated

6. Carranza • Nationalization of mineral resources • Churches cannot own property (Clear separation between Church and State in Mexico ≈ France) • Continues with caudillismo (the president designates his successor) • Succeeded (and later on assassinated) by Alvaro Obregón (1920-1924). Implements land reform program approved by Carranza (gains Zapatista Support)

7. Institutionalizing the Revolution • The 1910 Revolution shaped modern Mexican politics. • Political leaders, ideas and party that would dominate Mexican society and politics for the next 70 to 80 years. • From a bunch of ad-hoc parties, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) emerged as a hegemonic party that would control every level of government until the 1980s. • Subjection of the military to the government (last, failed, rebellion in 1923) • Calles (24-28) further institutionalized the party • The President is powerful because he leads a powerful structure • General Lázaro Cárdenas (1934-1940) is seen by Mexicans as “the greatest president produced by the Revolution.” • Furthered land reform • Strongly pro-labor • Housed the Republican government of Spain in exile (Mexico never recognized Franco’s dictatorship) • Nationalizations (railroads, oil: PEMEX) • The Nationalization of Oil triggered a sustained corporate boycott against Mexico

8. The Mexican “Miracle” • Policies implemented in the name of the 1910 Revolution: land reform, nationalization of the oil industry and an independent foreign policy, especially vis à vis the United States. • One-rule brought stability and economic growth • From the end of the Second World War until 1981. • Only economy in the world that grew continuously for 40 years at an average rate of 7 percent (“Mexican Miracle”) • Oil Boom of the 1970s was both a gift and a curse for Mexico • Increase spending--- Cheap U.S. dollar--- increase in Imports--- damage to local industries--- Inflation---Debt--- 1994 Crisis 1994: The economic crisis, preventing collapse

9. Federal Republic • 1917 Constitution: Federal System, Separation of Powers, Individual Rights. • Values: nationalism, universal free public education, restoration of the land to those who work it • Strong Executive power (the President enjoys some legislative power) (6 years, no-reelection) • Chamber of Deputies (500 seats, 200 are awarded through a regional list and the rest through SMD… double ballot like in Germany) (3 years) • Chamber of Senators (3 members by state, including the Federal district) (6 years) • Independent Judiciary: Judicial review, amparo and habeas corpus

10. One-party rule (like in Japan between 1955 and 1993?) • Pendullum politics, Co-optation, & Flexibility (the President designated his successor to compensate for the problems left by his own government) • Strong cohorts of career administrators (UNAM) • Wide range of policies (Conservative, Center, Left) based on a common consensus on a mixed economy. • Fraud • PRI “Alchemists”

11. PRI (Left-Center-Right?) 1934-40 General Lázaro Cárdenas (the “greatest President of the 1917 Revolution”). Land reform and nationalizations (left) 1940-46 Manuel Avila Camacho (center) sends troops to fight Japan with the U.S., allies the Church. Bracero program) 1946-52 Miguel Alemán. Strongly pro-business (right). Economic growth (tourism). Corrupt. 1952-58 Adolfo Ruiz Cortines (center)Honest. 1958-64 Adolfo López Mateos. Support for the Cuban Revolution, renewed emphasis on land reform (left) 1964-70 Gustavo Díaz Ordaz (right). Murder of University Students in Tlatelolco square. 1970-76 Luis Echeverría. Pro-labor, pro-land reform, pro-students (left) 1976-82 José Luis Portillo. Moderate, independent foreign policy/nationalization of the banking system(center) 1982-88 Miguel de la Madrid. (MPA Harvard). Career bureaucrats. Economic crisis. Corruption scandals 1988-94 Carlos Salinas de Gortari. (Ph.D. Harvard). Radical reorientation of the economy (free market, privatizations, NAFTA). (right) 1994-00 Ernesto Zedillo (center?)Rule of law, fight against corruption, full democratization of Mexico

12. Opening the System • Increasing participation of other political parties: “Opposition is a form of support.” • (PAN pro-businesses & pro-Church), PRD (leftist), minor parties • Economic crisis triggers political crisis • -Carlos Salinas & Zedillo support to NAFTA: the first steps • The rise of “Maquiladoras” (Who wins?) • Mexico's democratic revolution: One party system ends in 2000 with the election of PAN President Fox • NAFTA (Pres. G. W. Bush & Pres. Fox)

13. Economic Crisis (M. Delal Baer) • “Mexico is caught in a grinding stagnation that has led to a net loss of 2.1 million jobs, average GDP growth of less than one percent in the first three years of the Fox administration, and a surge in illegal immigration to the United States. The onset of recession in the United States hit Mexico hard, especially in the manufacturing sector.” (M. Delal Baer)

14. Problems NAFTA: Mexico expected • (Jorge Castaneda) To turn “NAFTA into a European-style "North American Community," complete with free movement of labor and social development funds for poorer nations. Fox… hoped that the United States might be willing to do the same for Mexico. He also asked that the Bush administration provide de jure recognition of the de facto residence of millions of Mexicans working illegally in the United States, the first step toward a free labor market.” (M. Delal Baer) The US • “A Mexican foreign policy that demanded sizeable amounts of aid and the legalization of millions of immigrants, however, was the last thing the Bush administration had expected….Mexico underestimated U.S. sensitivity to job competition and downward pressure on wages in the face of a looming recession.” (M. Delal Baer)

15. Problems • Corruption & Growth of Drug Lords (in the last two decades) • Crime • Population Growth (problems of urbanization and scarcity of land) Broken promises of the Revolution: Zapatismo • Widening gap between an industrializing north and lagging south: NAFTA: Losers and Winners • Failed Promises of Democracy? “Three years into Mexico's democratic transition, few of these dreams have been realized. Mexican politics are more democratic but less governable and are suffering from gridlock between the executive and legislative branches. The principal concern of Mexico's political elite today is how to build governing majorities and achieve consensus.” (M. Delal Baer)

16. Challenges • To make NAFTA a truly experience of common growth and integration. • “The United States and Mexico must first erect a new North American security architecture. Protection of the North American perimeter is essential to the security of both nations.” (M. Delal Baer)