Megaprojects, jobs and regional regeneration: HS2 in the UK

1. Megaprojects, jobs and regional regeneration: HS2 in the UK Mike Geddes Stop HS2 mikegeddes43@gmail.com

4. What the UK government says • High speed rail will change the social and economic geography of Britain; create jobs and improve competitiveness. • Linking England's main cities by HSR could help break down the north-south divide and regenerate the north. • HS2 (London to Birmingham) will create 40,000 jobs. • Other political parties and the trade unions also support HS2

5. What does Stop HS2 say? • These claims project benefits over long periods (up to 60 years), well beyond any reputable economic forecasting horizon. • Research (for government) shows economic growth created by HS2 would be ‘very small indeed’. • Most so-called ‘new’ jobs will be transfers from other places • Even using official figures, each job ‘created’ would cost £400,000+

6. And..... • What HSR will do is to redistribute economic activity between places. • The larger the local economy the more it will benefit. So-called ‘agglomeration benefits’ flow primarily to the most economically powerful existing agglomerations. • Thus the main beneficiary from HS2 and the wider proposed HSR network is likely to be London. • If other major cities benefit, this will be at the expense of regions, towns and rural areas not served by stations on the proposed route

8. HSR = neoliberalism • HSR would indeed “change the social and economic geography of Britain”. • It would integrate big cities (the 1%) into the European neoliberal space-economy • At the expense of everywhere else (the 99%).

9. If HSR is a useless neoliberal megaproject, what is the alternative (1)? Improve the existing rail network • Much cheaper • Much quicker • Improves the whole national network • Minimal environmental damage

11. If HSR is a useless neoliberal megaproject, what is the alternative(2)? ‘If we really want to create jobs in local economies rather than drain them away along a very fast railway line we could: • insulate 20m homes • make every house a mini-power station to generate and export its own electricity • sort out extremely poor quality commuter railway lines around all our cities • build 10,000 km of segregated bike paths to connect every school, hospital, employment site and public building to every residential area. These projects would deliver real jobs on a large scale in every city region and local authority area but do not have the sexiness of high speed railway lines.’ Professor John Whitelegg

12. International comparisons • The UK government claims that European experience shows that HSR will create jobs and regenerate lagging regions – eg in Lille • Stop HS2 says research shows that:* Lille has not grown as much as the French average* Other government funding more important than HSR* While towns surrounding Lille have declined

13. Issues for discussion • What is the experience elsewhere in Europe about HSR, jobs, and regional regeneration? • What arguments have been successful in persuading trade unions to oppose HSR? • How can we persuade people that there are better alternatives to neoliberalism and HSR?