The Role of Satellite Ocean Surface Vector Wind (OSVW) Information in Mitigating Risk to Maritime Transportation

1. The Role of Satellite Ocean Surface Vector Wind (OSVW) Information in Mitigating Risk to Maritime Transportation Presented By Paul S Chang

2. Requirement, Science Objective and Benefit Requirement • Marine Transportation: • Support decisions in aviation, marine, and surface navigation • Research, develop, and deploy more accurate and timely information products Science Objective • How can data from space based scatterometers support and improve NWS wind warning and forecasting products? Benefit • Minimize risk to cargo and passenger vessels from exposure to hazardous wind and wave conditions by providing the highest quality operational OSVW products

3. Challenges and Path Forward • Science challenges • Develop new techniques and methodologies to improve scatterometer OSVW retrievals. • Next steps • Near coast ASCAT wind product • Transitioning new STAR ASCAT product from research to operations • Pursue research and development of operational products from other international scatterometer missions (OceanSat-2, HY-2, GCOM-W) • Transition Path • Experimental scatterometer OSVW products will be validated and transitioned to operations as appropriate via SPSRB process in support of marine weather forecasting and warning

4. Project Team • Zorana Jelenak – Project Lead, Project Scientist UCAR • Paul Chang – Ocean Winds Team Lead (STAR) • Seubson Soisuvarn – Scientist, UCAR • Khalil Ahmad – Scientist, Perot Systems and • Joseph Sienkiewicz – NWS, Ocean Prediction Center • Qi Zhu - Scientific Programmer, Perot Systems • Micah Baker - Unix System Administrator, Perot Systems

5. QuikSCAT Ocean Surface Vector Wind Data Impacts Marine Analysis and Forecasting in the Tropics • More accurate analysis of key synoptic features at the surface • Introduction of new features depicted on surface analysis • Greatly improved detection, forecasts, and warnings of high impact events • Improved verification • Construction of climatologies

6. Ocean Surface Vector Wind Data Impacts Marine Analysis and Forecasting at Ocean Prediction Center • QuikSCAT OSVW data impacted: • 10 % of Warning decisions (wind speed only, 2004 OPC survey) • Surface Analyses (full vector winds) • Impact to 50 to 68% of features on surface analyses • Fronts • Lows • Highs • Wind areas • Due to reliability and consistency of QuikSCAT wind data new warning category for Hurricane Force winds introduced by NWS in 2000 2nd OSI SAF Workshop, Perros-Guirec, France 15-17 Mar 2005 6

7. Hurricane Force Winds QuikSCAT wind observation reveal that Hurricane Force Winds in winter ocean storm occur much more often than initially thought. These storms impose costs on maritime commerce transiting the North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans by delaying and sometimes damaging vessels, or causing loss of cargo. A significant fraction of this risk can be avoided with ocean surface vector wind observations and forecasts. Hurricane Force Extra-tropical Cyclones – Detection and Warning Trend using QuikSCAT 2000-2009

8. Extreme winter ocean storms occur over major shipping routes: North Atlantic example Major Shipping Routes North Atlantic 4,000/yr container transits 1,000/yr bulkers The geographic distribution of all cyclone centers that contained hurricane force conditions for the North Atlantic basin 2001 - 2008 Geographic distribution of cyclones with winds of HF intensity Sep-May 2000-2007

9. Major Shipping Routes North Pacific 6,000/yr container 1,500/yr bulker Extreme winter ocean storms occur over major shipping routes: North Pacific example The geographic distribution of all cyclone centers that contained hurricane force conditions for the North Pacifi basin 2001 - 2008 Geographic distribution of cyclones with winds of HF intensity Sep-May 2000-2007

10. Economic Impact of QuikSCAT wind data on Maritime Commerce Present level of warning/forecast services to 48 hours with QuikSCAT results in: $135 million per year savings in reduced damage / cargo loss for container and bulk commerce (Kite-Powell, 2008) *Second study near shore/coastal impacts underway

11. New STAR ASCAT high wind productto help mitigate loss of QuikSCAT. QuikSCAT information and associated forecasts enabled a reduction in annual exposure for shipping traffic in the North Atlantic and North Pacific of about 44%. Current operational ASCAT wind product underestimates high wind New STAR developed ASCAT high wind product *H. Kite-Powell 2008

12. STAR ASCAT Wind Product Improvements: North Pacific Extratropical Storm Example New STAR ASCAT wind product detects STORM force wind. One warning category lower Operational ASCAT wind product detects only GALE force wind. Two wind warning categories lower than the actual winds. QuikSCAT data reveals area of HURRICANE force winds

13. Challenges and Path Forward • Science challenges • Develop new techniques and methodologies to improve scatterometer OSVW retrievals. • Next steps • Near coast ASCAT wind product • Transitioning new STAR ASCAT product from research to operations • Pursue research and development of operational products from other international scatterometer missions (OceanSat-2, HY-2, GCOM-W) • Transition Path • Experimental scatterometer OSVW products will be validated and transitioned to operations as appropriate via SPSRB process in support of marine weather forecasting and warning