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Dr. Michael Pakko Chief Economist and State Economic Forecaster

Dr. Michael Pakko Chief Economist and State Economic Forecaster Institute for Economic Advancement, UALR. The Arkansas Economic Outlook. October 15, 2014.

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Dr. Michael Pakko Chief Economist and State Economic Forecaster

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  1. Dr. Michael Pakko Chief Economist and State Economic Forecaster Institute for Economic Advancement, UALR The Arkansas Economic Outlook October 15, 2014 Disclaimer: The views expressed are my own, and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the Federal Reserve System, the University of Arkansas at Little Rock, the University of Arkansas System, or the Institute for Economic Advancement.

  2. Arkansas’ Experience Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

  3. Arkansas’ Experience Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

  4. Arkansas’ Experience • By some measures, Arkansas is faring better than the rest of the nation • E.g., Personal Income, Proprietors’ Income, Dividends & Interest, etc. • By other measures, Arkansas is lagging behind • E.g., Employment, Wages and Salaries, Labor Force Participation • Common element: Weak Labor Market Conditions (even weaker than we thought)

  5. Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  6. Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  7. Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  8. Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  9. Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  10. Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  11. Taxable Sales Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

  12. Taxable Sales Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

  13. Taxable Sales Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

  14. Home Sales

  15. Home Sales

  16. Unemployment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  17. Unemployment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  18. Unemployment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  19. Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  20. Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  21. Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  22. Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  23. Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  24. Economic Forecasts "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." - Niels Bohr , Nobel prize-winning physicist.

  25. Forecast Methodology • Model: Arkansas Baseline from Moody’s Analytics. • Part of a structural econometric model of the U.S. Economy • Linked to US forecast, with relationships estimated by sector • Baseline forecast from Moody’s macroeconomic U.S. model • Alternative Forecast Paths: • Moody’s • Wells Fargo • Wall Street Journal • Blue Chip Consensus • NABE

  26. Employment

  27. Employment Including expected revision in 2015

  28. Employment As Published Expected Revision

  29. Unemployment

  30. Real GDP

  31. Real GDP

  32. Personal Income

  33. Retail Sales

  34. Home Sales

  35. Arkansas Economist For more information and analysis of the Arkansas Economy, visit the Arkansas Economist: www.arkansaseconomist.com

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