KnowSeas: Sustainable Management for Europe's Seas

1. KnowSeas Knowledge-based Sustainable Management for Europe’s Seas Big picture science for the Ecosystem Approach

2. Overall objective A comprehensive scientific knowledge base and practical guidance for the application of the Ecosystem Approach to the sustainable development of Europe’s regional seas. Image from: www.gstaadlife.com/

3. Organisation Now End of project Legacy • 33 partners from 16 European countries • €5.71 M • 2008 -2013 2004 - 2007 2008 - 2013 Prof Laurence Mee - Coordinator

4. Overall project design

5. The Ecosystem Approach A resource planning and management approach that integrates the connections between land, air and water and all living things, including people, their activities and institutions. Definition adapted by KnowSeas Adapted from the Ministry of Natural Resources, Canada www.mnr.gov.on.ca/

6. Systems science complexity

7. “Wicked” and “Tame” Problems “Tame” problem can be solved by careful rules-based or consensus management First order “fixes” Clear solutions no clear solution; there will be winners and losers “Wicked” problem involves moral judgements and value-based decisions: governance. Hard choices Jentoft and Chuenpagdee (2009) Fisheries and coastal governance as a wicked problem

8. Systems thinking: A method of rational inquiry Understanding of how human activities can impact marine environment Helps devise Leads to improvements in Metadata Information about relevant attributes of the system Sensitivity of system to proposed policy options and socio-economic changes Conceptual models describing pathways of socio-economic drivers and pressures Requirements Data and narrative Validation Models for systems analysis Scenarios

9. Social system Ecological system DPSWR (DPSIR revisited) Socio-economic DRIVERS Policy RESPONSE options Environ-mental PRESSURES Environ-mental STATE changes Human WELFARE change

10. Social system Ecological system DPSWR - Where are the impacts? Socio-economic DRIVERS Policy RESPONSE options Environ-mental PRESSURES Environ-mental STATE changes Human WELFARE change IMPACTS

11. Natural system variability External factors Human climate change DPSWR - External factors Socio-economic DRIVERS Policy RESPONSE options Environ-mental PRESSURES Environ-mental STATE changes Human WELFARE change

12. DPSWR and the MSFD indicators 7: Alteration of hydrographical conditions8: Contaminants9: Contaminants in fish and seafood for human consumption10: Marine litter11: Introduction of energy, including underwater noise Socio-economic DRIVERS Environ-mental PRESSURES 2: Non-indigenous species5: Eutrophication Environ-mental STATE changes 1: Biological diversity3: Population of commercial fish / shell fish4: Elements of marine food webs6: Sea floor integrity Human WELFARE change

13. Science for policy Mismatching scales and unrealistic expectations

14. Decision space analysis WFD EEZ MSFD

15. Implementation cycles and policies WFD MSFD CAP CFP

16. Tim O’Higgins - SAMS

17. Tim O’Higgins - SAMS

18. Tim O’Higgins - SAMS

19. Seagrass as an indicator of GES – spatial variability in response Linking measures under WFD with achieving GES under MSFD using models Seagrass recovery linked to nitrate reductions Dolch, Buschbaum, Reise, v. Beusekom (AWI), unpub. results No recovery of Seagrass in the lower saxonian Wadden Sea (from 35km² in 1960s to 8 km² at present). Delft 3D model Further reductions in nitrate loads required in Dutch & German rivers Van Beusekom & Troost

20. Cold-water reefs & fisheries interactions Implications for achieving GES UK Fishing value ‘The importance of coral reefs in supporting diverse fish communities has been highlighted in a recent study. However, the effects of damaging fishing techniques were also observed in video footage of the reefs studied, located off the coast of Ireland.’ 27th January 2012 Coral distribution OSPAR ‘Ghost net’ entangled in Lophelia pertusa coral at 1000m in EU waters Damage to threatened species and associated biodiversity due to fisheries and seabed litter Jason Hall-Spencer & Soffker

21. Science for policy 2 Thresholds, surprises and non-linear science

22. Regime shifts in all systems Thorsten Blenckner, Andrew Kenny, Peter Kershaw, Alberto Barausse, Georgi Daskalov, Maciej Tomczak, Alison Gilbert

23. Results- Drivers of regime shifts • Methods: • Regression Analysis on de-trended time-series of abiotic drivers vs. PC1s: Generalized Additive Model (GAM) • The most parsimonious model was identified using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)

24. Results- Drivers of regime shifts MSFD Non-MSFD

25. Ecological economics Trade offs

26. Social system Ecological system Trade-offs Socio-economic DRIVERS Policy RESPONSE options Environ-mental PRESSURES Environ-mental STATE changes Human WELFARE change

27. Potential policy conflicts – renewable energy and MSFD Costs and benefits of offshore-wind development Internal External Net carbon saving Producer surplus security of supply; development of exportable know-how; social capital from net job creation welfare-positive changes, e.g. effective MCZs protecting biodiversity Benefits emissions avoided compared to baseline generation mix increment compared to baseline generation mix Marine ecosystem impacts Other policy outcomes Congestion Loss of consumer surplus terrestrial impacts (e.g. grid connection infrastructure); loss of social capital from net job loss competition for use of marine space, e.g. fisheries, maritime traffic welfare-negative changes, e.g. threats to bird and cetacean populations from increased prices (lost demand + excess cost of consumption) Costs Dogger Bank Priorities Relevant Policy Round 3 OWF Renewable energy MSP IMP CFP MSFD cSAC Philip Cooper et al.

28. Innovative policy tools Adaptive management

29. ASSESSMENT

30. SETTING THE VISION

31. SETTING THE VISION

32. DEFINING THE FIRST STEP

33. NECESSARY INDICATORS

34. NECESSARY INDICATORS MODELS to test

35. MONITORING IS ESSENTIAL

36. COMPLIANCE AND FEEDBACK

37. PROGRESS TOWARDS THE VISION

38. SUPPORT FOR DECISION MAKERS KnowSeas Information System

39. The Spatial Data Infrastrucutre architecture with the Data Storage Layer (left), the Business Logic Layer (centre left) and the Application Layer (right). Map of the DPSWR framework to represent indicators related with the ecotoxicological pollution from organochlorines in the trophic web Sarda et al - CSIC

40. COUPLED SOCIAL ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS Testing policy choices – the case of Baltic Cod

41. System components Cod

42. Conceptual model Policies 50% reduction in N and P Costs Benefits Clear water Health effects Fish CBA

44. THE PUBLIC VIEW KnowSeas Social Science

45. The communications gap

46. 1. Building trust in institutions (1)

47. conclusions

48. Conclusions (1) Recognition of the sea as a complex coupled social ecological system requiring an ecosystem approach to management is an important policy development Our perceptions of the environment and human values are critically important for its management Complexity is difficult to grasp, whether a scientist or a decision maker

49. Conclusions (2) Adaptive management is one towards an ecosystem approach but there are pitfalls and risks. We should be planning for the next adaptive cycle of the MSFD Serious mismatches of temporal and spatial policy and legislation reflect sectoral silo thinking; big picture science helps to maintain an overall vision and context for the MSFD and GES Beautiful

50. Conclusions so far • Severe non-linear changes ”regimes are detected” in the three regional seas • Potential drivers of such changes are: • Climate (North Sea, Baltic Sea) • Fishing pressure (Baltic Sea, Adriatic Sea) • Nutrient loading (Adriatic Sea)