Earthquake Science Center work for CalVO and VHP

1. Earthquake Science Center work for CalVO and VHP May 14, 2014 Nick Beeler for Tom Brocher, Director

2. Topics • ESC assistance for CalVO • NCSN – Long Valley seismicity, real-time HypoDD implemented, status of health software • Geodesy – monitoring inflation at Long Valley • California-wide permit with US Forest Service • Induced Seismicity – Oklahoma is #2 in seismicity • Funding Opportunity for VHP? • Volcanic ash hazard to Great Valley water delivery system • Earthquake Early Warning – impact on VHP

3. RealtimeHypoDD has been implemented in the NCSS AQMS processing system. Double difference solutions for events going back to 1984 and realtime events should be available at the NC Earthquake Data Center soon. 5837 earthquakes in FY13 1052 M>1

5. 421 eqs in FY13

8. Long Valley Caldera Short and Long term monitoring of changes in velocities with GPS Last 2.75 yrs; Inflation rate is significant Last 2 Weeks; no significant changes

9. Time series Last 1.5 years Last 13 years

10. Deformation of Long Valley Caldera since 1984 to the present using 2-color EDM and continuous GPS Located 6.2km beneath resurgent dome Located ~12km beneath (or south) caldera’s south moat Nuisance “parameters”

12. Tephra (Volcanic Ash) Localities 27 of 128 CDWR borehole localities so far have encountered tephra of variable thickness (0.1 to 7.5 m; 1.9±1.7 m) Four distinct ashes identified at 27 localities Unnamed Ash (180-210 ka)

13. Delta TephraPrimarily transported and depositedby Pleistocene Great Valley Rivers (?) Maier

14. N-S Cross Section with Chronostratigraphic Units(Proposed Tunnels Alignment) 10X Ponti, Maier, Tinsley, Wan

15. ShakeAlertEarthquake Early WarningFor California and the West Coast • Principal EEW Collaborators • USGS Given, D., Cochran, E., Oppenheimer, D. • Caltech Heaton, T., Hauksson, E., Böse, M. • UC Berkeley Allen, R., Hellweg, P., Neuhauser, D. • Swiss Seismological Service, ETHClinton, J., Behr, Y. • U. of Washington Vidale, J., Bodin, P. • Moore Foundation Chandler, V., Biggs, G. Doug GivenUSGS Earthquake Early Warning Coordinator Caltech Earthquake Research Affiliates Meeting May 9, 2014

16. ShakeAlert Technical Implementation Plan Goal: build & operate a West Coast EEW system to… • Issue public warningsfor large earthquakes and… • Send warning parameters to government and private sector users… • …as soon as ShakeAlert meets quality and reliability standards on a region by region basis National Earthquake Hazard Map (USGS)

17. Large Scale System Architecture ANSS West Coast Centers Pacific Northwest • ShakeAlert is built on ANSS regional networks • Leverages ANSS • Stations • Telecomm • Hardened centers • Software (EW, AQMS) • Expertise • Management structures • Extension of ANSS Tier 1 center operations (AQMS) “A new ANSS product” Northern California Southern California

18. CISN Alert Shake California Integrated Seismic Network Progress Toward a Public EEW System • Evolutionary Approach • 2006-now – R & D phase • Jan. 2012 – Demonstration System Live • 2014 – Production Prototype • ?* – Limited Regional Rollout • ?* – Full Operation Performance Evaluation Tool *Rollout schedule depends on funding levels

19. Investments in EEW Development(Through FY14) Moore Foundation (2012-2014, no renewal) USGS (2002-2015) • External coop agreements for R&D for EEW • Phase I & II (2002-2012) $2,093,851 • Phase III (2012-2015) $1,575,000 • ARRA California (2009-2011) $4,426,110 • Network equipment upgrades • MultiHazards Project (2008-2014) $2,342,150 • San Andreas sensors, station upgrades,production computers, personnel • Caltech $1,996,888 • UC Berkeley $2,040,889 • Univ. of Washington $1,848,351 • USGS $ 594,406 TOTAL $6,480,534 TOTAL $10,437,111 • City of Los Angeles – UASI funding • To Caltech $5,600,000 • 125 new & upgraded stations • 40 RT-GPS stations • System infrastructure upgrades • FY14 – FederalOmnibus Budget Bill • $850,000 for EEW • “The Committees support efforts to continue developing an earthquake early warning prototype system on the West Coast.“

20. Est. Cost to Complete & Operate ShakeAlert • New and upgrades seismic stations & GPS stations • Significant field telemetry upgrades • Support personnel • to bring ANSS (CISN) network staffing up to robust levels • EEW implementation and testing • EEW operation and user outreach • Support for continued R & D

21. Additional ANSS Stations • Add & upgrade stations • Seismic & GPS • Optimum density ~20km • High quality, low latency • Upgraded telemetry Newly upgraded site CI.CVW 1 ANSS station; broadband plus strong motion sensor 2 Only strong motion accelerometer

22. Additional West Coast ANSS Staff Additional Personnel (USGS + cooperators) • Regional center staff Additional Personnel (USGS + cooperators) • System-wide coordination and support staff

23. Questions?

24. URLS: GPS observations: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/monitoring/gps/ GPS observations (transient detection): http://escweb.wr.usgs.gov/share/langbein/Web/MammothGPS/ Borehole Strain: http://escweb.wr.usgs.gov/share/langbein/Web/USGS_strain/