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Population Dynamics and Natural Hazards: Applying Geospatial Analysis. Prepared by ISCIENCES LLC * An examination of the use of GIS to explore linkages between environment and security. The Digital Earth Geospatial Analysis: Environment and Security in India.
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Population Dynamics and Natural Hazards: Applying Geospatial Analysis Prepared by ISCIENCESLLC* An examination of the use of GIS to explore linkages between environment and security • The Digital Earth • Geospatial Analysis: Environment and Security in India *for further information contact Douglas S. Way (principal investigator) way@isciences.com or Richard C. Cicone cicone@isciences.com
Viewing Global Population Models • TerraViva! Spinning Earth – digital Earth on the desktop • Free download at http://www.terraviva.net • Unique visualization of ORNL and CIESIN/UNEP • Global Population Models
Viewing Global Population Model ORNL Landscan GP 98 CIESIN GPW 1990
An Application of Geospatial Analysis: • Environmental Indications and Warning • Environmental Issues - Societal Stress • Food production, freshwater resources, water/air pollution, • land use change (deforestation, desertification, urbanization) • Affect public health, agriculture and industrial development, • demographic patterns, local through national political • alliances,economic growth, infrastructure planning, • crisis response capabilities……. • Affect political, economic and social dynamics • And are exacerbated by: • continued rapid population growth and migration • natural hazards and weather variability (shock) events
Value of GIS Technology • Environmental Issues are spatial in nature with global • to local origins • Environmental Issues are dynamic (process and time series) • Environmental Issues are subject to natural changes, • anthropogenic stressors and shock events • GIS facilitates trend analysis and ‘what if’ scenarios • GIS provides a strong interface to remote sensing sources • Visualization is a strong analysis and communication tool • GIS provides a platform for the integration of other data
Environmental Outlook: • South Asia with a focus on India • Urban population modeling • Population Density Change (1960, 1998, 2010) • Urbanization Risk (2025) • Natural Disaster Vulnerabilities – severe storm risk
1960 Population 424,391,200 1960 Population Density
2010 Population 1,182,171,000
Major Storm Tracks & Risk Areas
Cyclone Vulnerability High 54.8 million Mod. High 278.7 million Moderate 254.7 million
Population Possibly Impacted Dark Red: Very High 2.6 million Red High 2.5 million Orange Mod. High 1.8 million Yellow Moderate 10 million
Summary • “Digital Earth” will introduce new ways for researchers to • assess interactions of humans and nature. • Land use change dynamics such as urbanization can • be readily captured by satellite remote sensing. • Subnational (disaggregated) population models assist • analysis of risk due to land use change, or natural hazards. • Cartographic modeling is of value to visualize change • dynamics and explore implications. • Data are becoming more complete, precise and accurate. • Trends and alternative scenarios can be modeled as well • as assist in their evaluation. • Built up spatial information systems can be used to examine • “what if” scenarios conduct rapid assessment of real events.