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Investing in a Volatile Market. Agenda. Today ’ s market environment Is this time different? Learning from the past Gauging volatility Investing strategies in a volatile market Looking ahead. The Recent Exceptional Market Environment. RMS External Wholesalers.
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Investing in a Volatile Market AFN45598
Agenda • Today’s market environment • Is this time different? • Learning from the past • Gauging volatility • Investing strategies in a volatile market • Looking ahead
The Recent Exceptional Market Environment RMS External Wholesalers Source: Standard & Poor’s; based on the closing price of the S&P 500 index from September 1, 2007, through December 31, 2012.
Behind the Bear • Bursting real estate bubble • Subprime crisis • Institutional bankruptcies and bailouts • Economic slump • Growing risk aversion of banks • Changing consumer attitudes • Changing demographics
Is This Time Different? Sources: Standard & Poor’s; Bureau of Economic Analysis; International Monetary Fund; Economic Planning Agency (Japan); National Bureau of Economic Research. GDP data is based on quarterly data for the most recent bear market and the 1970’s bear market; it is based on annual data otherwise. Periods of economic contraction do not exactly coincide with bear markets.
Learning From the Past:Bear Markets Since 1950 Source: Standard & Poor’s. For the period from January 1, 1950, through December 31, 2012. Stocks are represented by the daily closing price of the Standard & Poor's 500. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. (CS000144)
Learning From the Past:Stock Markets and Economic Contractions Source: Standard & Poor’s. For the period from January 1, 1950, through December 31, 2012. U.S. stocks are represented by Standard & Poor’s Composite Index of 500 Stocks, an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Economic contractions are as defined by the National Bureau for Economic Research. (CS000228)
Learning From the Past: Conclusions • Economic cycles don’t tell the whole story • Every bear is unique • Fundamental investing concepts and strategies still apply
Gauging Volatility: Standard Deviation S&P 500 Standard Deviation — 1959-2012 Source: Standard & Poor's. Represents the annualized monthly standard deviation of the total returns of the S&P 500 index for rolling 10-year periods from January 1959 to December 2012. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Gauging Volatility: VIX Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange. For the period from January 1990 to December 2012.
Five Investing Strategies for a Volatile Market • Don’t panic • Take advantage of asset allocation • Diversify by sector, size, and style • Keep a long-term perspective • Consider buying opportunities
Don’t Panic Source: Standard & Poor’s. This chart shows how a $10,000 investment would have been affected by missing the market's top-performing days over the 20-year period ended December 31, 2012. Stocks are represented by Standard & Poor’s Composite Index of 500 Stocks, an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. (CS000076)
Take Advantage of Asset Allocation All Stock Portfolio 60% Stock Portfolio 40% Stock Portfolio Cash10% Cash20% Stocks40% Stocks100% Stocks60% Bonds30% Bonds40% *Annualized monthly standard deviation. Sources: Standard & Poor’s, Barclays Capital. For the periods ended December 31, 2012. Stocks represented by the S&P 500 index. Bonds represented by the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond index. Cash represented by the Barclays 3-Month Treasury-Bills index. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. *
Diversify by Sector, Size, and Style Sector outperformance varies with the economic cycle Source: Standard & Poor’s. Sector performance represented by the performance of the 10 GICS sectors within Standard & Poor's Composite Index of 500 Stocks. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. (CS000172)
Keep a Long-Term Perspective The longer the holding period, the lower the variability in returns Source: Standard & Poor’s. For all indicated holding periods between January 1, 1926, and December 31, 2012. Domestic stocks are represented by the total returns of Standard & Poor's Composite Index of 500 Stocks, an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. (CS000070)
Consider Buying Opportunities Market Valuation Metrics in Selected Bull and Bear Markets Source: Standard & Poor’s. For the period from January 1, 1950, through December 31, 2012. Price/earnings ratios are based on 4-quarter trailing earnings. Average bull and bear market peak and bottom ratios based on final month average in cycle.
Special Considerations for Retirement Plan Assets • Reallocate, don’t cut • Never cut contributions below employer match • If employer cuts match, contributing still makes sense
Looking Ahead • Economy still in a downturn • Housing slump continues • Administration and Congress are confronting the issues • Increased government oversight of financial markets will come • Other structural changes to markets and economy are likely = Market volatility is likely to remain a given 18 18
Forward, Not Back • Steps to recovery in process • Upside greater than downside • Using time-proven investing strategies is the best way to deal with continued market volatility 19 19
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