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Imbalances in International Economic System

Explore the imbalances in the global economic system, including international payments, fiscal imbalances, euro-zone crisis, and developing vs developed countries. Gain insights into China's role, fiscal positions, and long-term demographic challenges.

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Imbalances in International Economic System

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  1. Imbalances in International Economic System Dr. Jacob A. Frenkel Chairman, JPMorgan Chase International S T R I C T L Y   P R I V A T E   A N D   C O N F I D E N T I A L Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee Paris, France December 10, 2010

  2. Imbalances in the Global Economic System Dr. Jacob A. Frenkel Chairman, JPMorgan Chase International Chairman, Group of Thirty (G30) Former Governor, Bank of Israel S T R I C T L Y   P R I V A T E   A N D   C O N F I D E N T I A L GLOBES, Israel Business Conference Tel Aviv, Israel December 12-13, 2010

  3. Six Global Imbalances • International Payments Imbalances • China and the Global System • Fiscal Imbalances • Imbalances and the Euro-zone Crisis • Imbalances between Developed andDeveloping Countries • Long-term Demographic Challenges

  4. Global Payments Imbalances • Current Accounts Imbalances • International Reserves • Foreign Holdings of US Treasuries • Savings Imbalances

  5. Current Account of Balance of Payments US$ billions, 2011

  6. Current Account of Balance of Payments

  7. Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves (Bill. Usd) Flow (2005 – 2010) Stock

  8. Global Treasury Holdings

  9. Gross National Savings as a % of GDP

  10. China and the Global System • China and the Trading System • The Destinations of Exports • International Reserves and Exchange Rates

  11. U.S. & EU People’s Republic of China Asia China’s Role in Global Trade (bill. Usd) Exports Exports Imports Imports

  12. European Union Exports by Destination

  13. U.S. Exports by Destination

  14. China Exports by Destination

  15. China Foreign Exchange Reserves

  16. China’s Foreign Exchange: Yuan/USD, Yuan/EUR

  17. Fiscal Imbalances • Budget Deficits • Public Debt

  18. Fiscal Positions: General Government Net Lending/Borrowing

  19. Fiscal Positions: Net Public Debt

  20. Imbalances & The Euro-Zone Crisis • Unemployment & Competitiveness • Budget Deficits and Public Debt • Savings and Payments Imbalances • Spreads, CDS, and Banks • “Bad Zones” and the Crisis

  21. Unemployment Rate (%): Selected Euro Area Countries

  22. Relative Unit Labor Costs

  23. Fiscal Position: General Government Net Lending/Borrowing – Euro Area Countries

  24. Fiscal Positions: Net Public Debt – Select Euro Area Economies

  25. Change in Gross National Saving Rate: Select European Counties (2000 – 2009) Change between 2000-2007 Change between 2007-2009

  26. Change in Gross National Saving Rate: Select European Countries (2000 – 2009)

  27. Euro Area Current Account Balance Decomposed (% of GDP)

  28. Domestic and External Gross Government Debt (% of GDP)

  29. 10yr Government Bond Yield Spread

  30. European Sovereign and Corporate CDS Spreads

  31. Bank Holdings of Government Securities

  32. Gross Government Debt and Budget Deficit (% of GDP 2009)

  33. Current Account Balance and Budget Deficit (% of GDP 2009)

  34. Gross National Saving Rate and Budget Deficit (% of GDP 2009)

  35. Imbalances Between Developed and Developing Countries • GDP: Distribution and Growth • Demographic Trends

  36. Real GDP Growth (%) World Economy

  37. Advanced & Emerging Economies Contribution to Global GDP Growth

  38. Global GDP Shares

  39. World Population Shares (2010 – 2030) Source: United Nations Populations Division, Last update 2009

  40. World Population Shares (2010 – 2030) Source: United Nations Populations Division, Last update 2009

  41. World Demographic Projection Source: United Nations Populations Division, Last update 2009

  42. Developed Countries Demographic Projection Source: United Nations Populations Division, Last update 2009

  43. Developing Countries Demographic Projection Source: United Nations Populations Division, Last update 2009

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